FT Alphaville \u00bb Negative rates as a precursor to the death of banking<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Izabella Kaminska: The [European research] team at Morgan Stanley concludes: Banks earnings have already come under significant pressure from the flattening of the yield curve. Unless negative real rates came with a material steepening of the curves (not our rates colleagues\u2019 view), banks earnings would come under even greater pressure. In fact, the greatest risk … <\/p>\n
Continue reading “FT Alphaville \u00bb Negative rates as a precursor to the death of banking”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[356,884,2429,3725],"class_list":["post-5003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","tag-bank-lending-margins","tag-credit-spreads","tag-negative-interest-rates","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"\nFT Alphaville \u00bb Negative rates as a precursor to the death of banking - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FT Alphaville \u00bb Negative rates as a precursor to the death of banking - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Izabella Kaminska: The [European research] team at Morgan Stanley concludes: Banks earnings have already come under significant pressure from the flattening of the yield curve. 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When the spread between long-term Treasury yields and short-term rates is\u00a0 below zero, net interest margins are squeezed. In a normal market, with a steep yield curve, net interest margins are wide\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4526,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/03\/us-banks-face-squeeze\/","url_meta":{"origin":5003,"position":1},"title":"US banks face squeeze","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Rising short-term interest rates (represented by 3-month Treasury yields on the chart below) caused negative yield differentials in 2006\/2007 which led me to warn of an economic down-turn. Yield differentials are calculated by subtracting short-term (3-month) yields from long-term (10-year) yields. Banks borrow mostly at short-term rates and lend at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14843,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/18\/bond-spreads-bullish-for-us-less-so-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":5003,"position":2},"title":"Bond spreads bullish for US, less so Australia","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 18, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Yield Curve The yield curve is one of the best predictors of US economic recessions. Every time the yield curve has turned negative in the last fifty years, a recession has followed. First of all, what is a yield curve? It is the plot of yields on bonds, normally Treasuries,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16064,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/01\/13\/outlook-for-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":5003,"position":3},"title":"Outlook for 2018","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 13, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"At this time of year we are usually inundated with projections for the year ahead, from predictions of imminent collapse to expectations of a record year. We live in a world of uncertainty, where both extremes are possible, but neither is likely. We are clearly in stage 3 (the final\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24264,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/25\/gold-and-the-yield-curve\/","url_meta":{"origin":5003,"position":4},"title":"Gold and the yield curve","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 25, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Fears of inflation have been driving up Treasury yields. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to hose down inflation fears: While price increases might accelerate in coming months, Powell said those increases are expected to be temporary and not a sign\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16918,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/01\/does-the-yield-curve-warn-of-a-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":5003,"position":5},"title":"Does the yield curve warn of a recession?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 1, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"There has been talk in recent months about the narrowing yield curve and how this warns of a coming recession, normally accompanied by a graph of the 10-year\/2-year Treasury spread which fell to 0.22% at the end of August 2018. I have always used the 10-year minus the 3-month Treasury\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5003\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}