{"id":49914,"date":"2024-03-14T23:34:45","date_gmt":"2024-03-14T23:34:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=49914"},"modified":"2024-03-15T02:39:15","modified_gmt":"2024-03-15T02:39:15","slug":"crude-sets-the-cat-amongst-the-pigeons","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/14\/crude-sets-the-cat-amongst-the-pigeons\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude sets the cat amongst the pigeons"},"content":{"rendered":"

Brent crude broke resistance at $84, signaling a fresh advance. Expect retracement to test the new support level but respect is likely and would confirm our target of $94 per barrel.<\/p>\n

\"Brent<\/p>\n

Nymex light crude similarly broke resistance at $80, offering a target of $90 per barrel.<\/p>\n

\"Nymex<\/p>\n

The threaten upsurge in inflation spooked bond investors, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking resistance at 4.20%.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

We expect a test of resistance at our target of 4.35%.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

<\/a>
\nThe Dollar Index jumped above resistance at 103 in response.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

Gold retreated to test support at $2150 per ounce. Narrow consolidation is a bullish sign and follow-through above $2200 would confirm our target of $2400 per ounce. Breach of $2150 is less likely but would indicate a test of $2075.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 eased in response to higher long-term bond yields. Lower Trend Index peaks warn of a correction. Breach of support at 5100 would confirm.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The Russell 2000 small caps ETF (IWM) reacted with greater alarm, testing support at 200.\u00a0 Lower Trend Index peaks again warn of a correction and breach of support at 200 would confirm, offering a short-term target of 190.<\/p>\n

\"Russell<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

An upward spike in crude oil threatens higher inflation which in turn would be likely to delay rate cuts by the Fed, causing long-term interest rates to rise.<\/p>\n

We are short-term bullish on Crude and Gold; bearish on Stocks and long-duration Bonds.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n
\n

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Colin Twiggs\u2019 newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013 including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span>Save 50% on a new annual subscription to Market Analysis (normal price: $195 AUD or $145 USD). This subscription may be tax deductible – ask your accountant.<\/span> <\/span>Save Now ><\/span>Offer valid until<\/span> midnight September 15, 2025<\/span>. New subscribers only.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Brent crude broke resistance at $84, signaling a fresh advance. Expect retracement to test the new support level but respect is likely and would confirm our target of $94 per barrel. Nymex light crude similarly broke resistance at $80, offering a target of $90 per barrel. The threaten upsurge in inflation spooked bond investors, with … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Crude sets the cat amongst the pigeons”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,44,9,34,35],"tags":[69,495,1073,2529,3010,3204],"class_list":["post-49914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-brent-crude","tag-dollar-index","tag-nymex-wti-light-crude","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"\nCrude sets the cat amongst the pigeons - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/14\/crude-sets-the-cat-amongst-the-pigeons\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crude sets the cat amongst the pigeons - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Brent crude broke resistance at $84, signaling a fresh advance. 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But financial market conditions remain easy and are expected to support stock prices. Treasury Markets Long-term Treasury yields rose today after two- and five-year auctions both\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-28-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-28-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-28-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7927,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/19\/gold-falls-while-treasury-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":49914,"position":2},"title":"Gold falls while Treasury yields rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 19, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is testing primary support at $1340\/ounce. Breach of support would signal another primary decline, while follow-through below $1320 would confirm. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a healthy primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $1100*. * Target calculation: 1300 - ( 1500 -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7748,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/16\/gold-and-commodities-fall-while-dollar-and-bond-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":49914,"position":3},"title":"Gold and commodities fall while Dollar and bond yields rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 16, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke the rising trendline and support at $1440\/$1450, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Target of $1200* for the decline would be confirmed by a breach of primary support. * Target calculation: 1350 - ( 1500 - 1350 ) = 1200 Treasury Yields Ten-year treasury yields broke\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":58791,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/29\/strong-liquidity-but-rising-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":49914,"position":4},"title":"Strong liquidity but rising uncertainty","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin signals strong financial market liquidity, supporting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq uptrends. However, rising 10-year Treasury yields indicate concern over the sustainability of fiscal deficits, which has boosted demand for the safety of precious metals. Stocks The S&P 500 continues to test support at 5800, with lower Trend Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":45258,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/crude-plunges\/","url_meta":{"origin":49914,"position":5},"title":"Crude plunges","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 8, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Brent crude broke support at $83 per barrel, warning of a slowing global economy. Nymex Light Crude plunged even harder, to $77.38 per barrel. Reuters reported rising US crude inventories, despite slightly lower than expected production, while falling Chinese exports spooked commodity markets: Oil prices fell on Wednesday to their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-07-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-07-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-07-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49914"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49914\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49928,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49914\/revisions\/49928"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}