{"id":48432,"date":"2024-02-14T23:34:01","date_gmt":"2024-02-14T23:34:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=48432"},"modified":"2024-02-15T05:29:29","modified_gmt":"2024-02-15T05:29:29","slug":"critical-materials-projected-supply-gap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/14\/critical-materials-projected-supply-gap\/","title":{"rendered":"Critical Materials &#8211; projected supply gap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Two interesting tables from <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Metals\/Commodities\/Skyrocketing-Battery-Mineral-Demand-Set-to-Outpace-Supply-By-2023.html\">ZeroHedge<\/a>. First, is the projected increase in supply of key critical materials needed to achieve global net zero increase in CO2 emissions (NZE) by 2040:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-14-minerals-2040.jpg?resize=500%2C144&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Critical Materials - Expected Supply Shortage to achieve Net Zero by 2040\" width=\"500\" height=\"144\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Second, is the expected supply shortfall by 2030:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-14-minerals-2030.jpg?resize=500%2C110&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Critical Materials - Expected Supply Shortage to achieve Net Zero by 2040\" width=\"500\" height=\"110\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Industrial Metals are currently in a bear market, with DJ Industrial Metals Index ($BIM) testing long-term support at 150. Breach would offer a target of 110.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-14-bim.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ Industrial Base Metals\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Now may not be an opportune time to accumulate critical materials stocks but keep watch. Sooner or later, demand growth is likely to resume &#8212; as electrification and EV sales grow &#8212; leading to a supply shortfall as projected in 2030 above.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgements<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Energy Transitions Commission: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.energy-transitions.org\/publications\/material-and-resource-energy-transition\/\">Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition<\/a>, July 2023<\/li>\n<li>ZeroHedge: <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Metals\/Commodities\/Skyrocketing-Battery-Mineral-Demand-Set-to-Outpace-Supply-By-2023.html\">Skyrocketing Battery Mineral Demand Set to Outpace Supply By 2023<\/a>, February 14, 2024<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two interesting tables from ZeroHedge. First, is the projected increase in supply of key critical materials needed to achieve global net zero increase in CO2 emissions (NZE) by 2040: Second, is the expected supply shortfall by 2030: Industrial Metals are currently in a bear market, with DJ Industrial Metals Index ($BIM) testing long-term support at &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/14\/critical-materials-projected-supply-gap\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Critical Materials &#8211; projected supply gap&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5402,5282],"tags":[4514,5434,6295,6294,6293],"class_list":["post-48432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-base-metals","category-critical-materials","tag-critical-materials","tag-dj-industrial-metals-index-bim","tag-expected-supply-gap-by-2030","tag-expected-supply-shortage","tag-net-zero-by-2040"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Critical Materials - projected supply gap - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Critical Materials - projected supply gap - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Two interesting tables from ZeroHedge. First, is the projected increase in supply of key critical materials needed to achieve global net zero increase in CO2 emissions (NZE) by 2040: Second, is the expected supply shortfall by 2030: Industrial Metals are currently in a bear market, with DJ Industrial Metals Index ($BIM) testing long-term support at &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Critical Materials &#8211; projected supply gap&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/14\/critical-materials-projected-supply-gap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-02-14T23:34:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-02-15T05:29:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-14-minerals-2040.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/02\\\/14\\\/critical-materials-projected-supply-gap\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/02\\\/14\\\/critical-materials-projected-supply-gap\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Critical Materials &#8211; 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-cBa","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62058,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/25\/lithium-too-early-to-buy\/","url_meta":{"origin":48432,"position":0},"title":"Lithium &#8211; too early to buy","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 25, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The IEA projects strong growth in lithium demand by 2040 Planned increases in mining supply lag far behind However, shortages are unlikely to materialize before 2030 The IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 projects lithium demand to grow from 165Kt in 2023 to 531Kt by 2030 and 1326Kt by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Critical Materials&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Critical Materials","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/critical-materials\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Lithium Demand under IEA Announced Pledges scenario (APS) and their Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-24-li-demand.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":21436,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/08\/demand-for-ev-materials-expected-to-soar\/","url_meta":{"origin":48432,"position":1},"title":"Demand for EV materials expected to soar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 8, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The EU recently completed a review of critical materials needed in manufacturing and highlighted the rapid expected growth in materials used in manufacture of electric vehicles. Included on the list of 30 critical materials are lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and three rare earth materials used in the manufacture of permanent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21463,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/11\/lt-trends-electric-vehicles\/","url_meta":{"origin":48432,"position":2},"title":"LT trends: Electric vehicles","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 11, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Part of our investment strategy is to identify long-term trends that are likely to shape future investment markets. We are currently conducting an assessment of how current developments may impact previously identified trends. This is the second in a series of updates covering major trends. #2 Electric Vehicles China and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":62487,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/25\/lithium-demand-expected-to-grow\/","url_meta":{"origin":48432,"position":3},"title":"Lithium demand expected to grow","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 25, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The IEA projects that lithium demand will more than double by 2030. The Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) has been in an uptrend for over two months. Lithium carbonate prices remain low, trading at 73.85K per tonne, just 12% of the 600K peak in 2022. Prices surged to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Critical Materials&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Critical Materials","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/critical-materials\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Lithium Carbonate (CNY\/T)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-lico.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-lico.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-lico.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44541,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/07\/copper-breaks-support-while-crude-gets-hammered\/","url_meta":{"origin":48432,"position":4},"title":"Copper breaks support while crude gets hammered","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 7, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Copper broke support at $7900\/tonne, signaling a primary decline with a target of its 2022 low at $7000. The primary down-trend warns of a global economic contraction. The bear signal has yet to be confirmed by the broader-based Dow Jones Industrial Metals Index ($BIM) which is testing primary support at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Base Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Copper","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-06-copper.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-06-copper.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-06-copper.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42289,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/26\/dr-copper-warns-of-global-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":48432,"position":5},"title":"Dr Copper warns of global recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 26, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Copper (black below) shows a bearish divergence from the Dow Jones Global Index (GDOW). Expect another test of the July '22 low (at $7000\/tonne), with global stocks likely to follow copper lower. Often referred to as \"Dr Copper\" because of its \"PhD in economics\", copper has an enviable reputation as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Base Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Copper & Global Dow (GDOW)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-25-copper-gdow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-25-copper-gdow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-25-copper-gdow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48432"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48432\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48452,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48432\/revisions\/48452"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}