{"id":47941,"date":"2024-01-31T07:27:07","date_gmt":"2024-01-31T07:27:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=47941"},"modified":"2024-02-19T06:14:31","modified_gmt":"2024-02-19T06:14:31","slug":"sp-500-losing-touch-with-reality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/31\/sp-500-losing-touch-with-reality\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 losing touch with reality"},"content":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 climbed to a new high after breaking resistance at its January ’22 high of 4800. Rising Trend Index troughs warn of strong buying pressure. Pricing seems to be losing touch with reality.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 Price-Earnings ratio climbed to 24.2 on December 31st and is forecast to reach 24.9 at the end of the quarter (based on the current index price and forecast Q1 earnings). The chart below shows the pricing history of the index (and its predecessors) over the past 120 years. We use highest trailing earnings to eliminate distortion caused by sharp falls in earnings during past recessions. Prior to the Dotcom bubble, PE had never exceeded 20 times earnings — even during the heady booms preceding the Black Friday crash in 1929 and Black Monday in 1987. The long-term average PE of 16.5 (since 1973) suggests that the index is currently over-priced by close to 50%.<\/p>\n

\"S&P
\n<\/a>
\nThe price-to-sales ratio of 2.57 shows a similar excess compared to the average of 1.70.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The operating margin of 11.0% in the December quarter has declined from its 2021 peak at 13.5% but is still above its 10-year average of 10.2%. We expect margins to revert to the mean over the next year or two.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

While margins are still reasonably healthy, annual sales growth plunged to 4.0% in the December quarter. Core PCE inflation of 2.9% in 2023 means that real growth in sales was a paltry 1.1% last year.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 is over-priced relative to earnings and sales growth, with long-term intrinsic value estimated at\u00a0 3200 — roughly two-thirds of the current price. If the Fed continues to inject liquidity to support financial markets ahead of the November elections, we do not expect a major correction in 2024 — bar a major geopolitical event that impacts on energy prices.<\/p>\n

The following year is likely to prove more difficult, however, with the Fed draining liquidity to ease underlying inflationary pressure and Treasury increasing issuance of notes and bonds, driving up long-term yields.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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Colin Twiggs\u2019 newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013 including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span>Save 50% on a new annual subscription to Market Analysis (normal price: $195 AUD or $145 USD). This subscription may be tax deductible – ask your accountant.<\/span> <\/span>Save Now ><\/span>Offer valid until<\/span> midnight September 15, 2025<\/span>. New subscribers only.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The S&P 500 climbed to a new high after breaking resistance at its January ’22 high of 4800. Rising Trend Index troughs warn of strong buying pressure. Pricing seems to be losing touch with reality. The S&P 500 Price-Earnings ratio climbed to 24.2 on December 31st and is forecast to reach 24.9 at the end … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500 losing touch with reality”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[3994,4640,6260,3010,4047],"class_list":["post-47941","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-operating-margin","tag-pe-of-highest-trailing-earnings","tag-price-sales-ratio","tag-sp-500","tag-sales-growth"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 losing touch with reality - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The S&P 500 climbed to a new high after breaking resistance at its January 2022 high of 4800. Rising Trend Index troughs warn of strong buying pressure. 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The current reading of 29.2 is almost double the low during the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Stock Market Capitalization\/GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-12-mcap-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-12-mcap-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-12-mcap-gdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":52881,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/15\/sp-500-fundamentals-dont-stack-up\/","url_meta":{"origin":47941,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500 fundamentals don’t stack up","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 15, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 threatens another advance, fueled by easy monetary conditions, but the fundamentals don't stack up. Sales and earnings multiples are stretched despite weak expected sales and earnings growth for the March quarter -- with 458 of 503 stocks in the index having reported. S&P 500 The index is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62255,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/09\/us-leading-indicator-slips-to-40\/","url_meta":{"origin":47941,"position":3},"title":"US Leading Indicator slips to 40%","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 9, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear indicator declined to 40% from 60% last week, with heavy truck sales moving to risk-off: Heavy truck sales declined to 37.1K units in July,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":37419,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/13\/sp-500-rallying-but-risks-remain\/","url_meta":{"origin":47941,"position":4},"title":"S&P 500 rallying but risks remain","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 13, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is rallying, with a higher trough suggesting another test of resistance at 4200\/4250. But valuations warn that stock prices are still elevated, with Market Capitalization\/GDP -- Warren Buffett's favorite valuation measure -- falling to 2.14 in Q2, compared to the long-term average of 1.03. The price-to-sales ratio\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-12-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26535,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/26\/sp-500-and-the-fed-taper\/","url_meta":{"origin":47941,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500 and the Fed taper","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 26, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P 500 earnings forecasts show a sizable jump in the March quarter (97.3% reported) followed by a weaker June quarter as the economy struggles with supply chain interruptions and labor shortages. Record operating margins of 13.0% estimated for the first quarter (March '21) are unlikely to be repeated. The average\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47941","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47941"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47941\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48137,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47941\/revisions\/48137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47941"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47941"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47941"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}