{"id":47366,"date":"2024-01-17T07:52:21","date_gmt":"2024-01-17T07:52:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=47366"},"modified":"2024-01-17T07:52:21","modified_gmt":"2024-01-17T07:52:21","slug":"asx-200-tests-support-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/17\/asx-200-tests-support-2\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200 tests support"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 200 retreated from resistance at the high of 7600 and is now testing support at 7400. Breach would warn of a correction to test primary support at 6750.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-17--xjo.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Financials Index has similarly retreated from resistance at 6800. Reversal below 6650 would warn of a correction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-17-xfj.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Financials\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The A-REIT Index would likewise warn of a correction to test 1200 if support at 1440 is breached. The recent rally was in response to falling long-term bond yields.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-17-xpj.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 REITs\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The correction in yields is secondary in nature and is unlikely to reverse the long-term up-trend. Further increases in long-term yields are expected to weaken A-REITs.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/10-year-australian-government-bond-yield.gif?resize=525%2C392&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year AGB Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"392\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Healthcare also rallied strongly in the past two months but could reverse if long-term bond yields strengthen.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-17-xhj.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Healthcare\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Consumer Staples are in a strong down-trend. Breach of support at 11500 would warn of another decline.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-17-xsj.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Staples\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Discretionary has surprised to the upside, breaking resistance at 3200. A Trend Index trough at zero indicates buying pressure. Retracement that respects the new support level would signal a further advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-17-xdj.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Discretionary\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Energy rallied to test resistance at 11000 but a Trend Index peak below zero warns of selling pressure. Another test of primary support at 10000 is likely.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-17-xej.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Energy\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The All Ordinaries Gold Index fell sharply as the US Dollar strengthened. Follow-through below 6500 would warn of another test of support at 6000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-17-xgd.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"All Ordinaries Gold Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining Index is falling sharply as China&#8217;s recovery falters. Another test of primary support at 5600 is likely.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-17-xmm.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>China<\/h2>\n<p>Rate cuts and measures to stimulate the Chinese economy have been modest as the PBOC is trying to protect the Yuan from further depreciation against the US Dollar.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-17-cny.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Discretionary\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The result is slowing growth and deflation as weak demand persists.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/inflation-china-and-india.gif?resize=525%2C410&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China &amp; India Inflation\" width=\"525\" height=\"410\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Falling long-term bond yields have boosted Financials, REITs, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors but the correction in yields is secondary and we expect this to reverse in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>The Metals &amp; Mining sector is falling sharply as China struggles to overcome weak demand while at the same time protecting the Yuan from further depreciation against the Dollar.<\/p>\n<p>Our overall outlook for the ASX 200 remains bearish. Breach of support at 7400 would warn of a correction to test primary support from the October 2022 low at 6750.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 200 retreated from resistance at the high of 7600 and is now testing support at 7400. Breach would warn of a correction to test primary support at 6750. The Financials Index has similarly retreated from resistance at 6800. Reversal below 6650 would warn of a correction. The A-REIT Index would likewise warn of &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/17\/asx-200-tests-support-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX 200 tests support&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,46,3761,10,13,28],"tags":[6244,166,251,6243,252,4003,254,4149,6072,262,663,1828],"class_list":["post-47366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","category-inflation-economy","category-taxes-inequality","tag-10-year-agb-yield","tag-all-ordinaries-gold-index","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-200-discretionary","tag-asx-200-energy-xej","tag-asx-200-financials","tag-asx-200-health-care","tag-asx-200-reits","tag-asx-200-staples","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-china","tag-inflation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX 200 tests support - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200 tests support - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ASX 200 retreated from resistance at the high of 7600 and is now testing support at 7400. Breach would warn of a correction to test primary support at 6750. The Financials Index has similarly retreated from resistance at 6800. Reversal below 6650 would warn of a correction. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-cjY","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":26739,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/10\/asx-correction-alert\/","url_meta":{"origin":47366,"position":0},"title":"ASX correction alert","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 10, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 continues to test support at 7200; breach would warn of a correction. Follow-through below 7000 would offer a target of 6500. Trend Index troughs above zero indicate long-term buying pressure but there are two major headwinds on the radar. First, is China's credit contraction, increasing the risk\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26528,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/26\/asx-short-term-bearish-long-term-bullish\/","url_meta":{"origin":47366,"position":1},"title":"ASX short-term bearish, long-term bullish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 26, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is retracing to test support at 7000 but Trend Index troughs above zero indicate longer-term buying pressure. Respect of support is likely and would confirm a fresh advance. Financial Markets Rising bond ETFs (BOND, IAF & VAF) signal weakening long-term interest rates. Low rates buoyed A-REITs and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":58669,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/24\/asx-200-sectors-diverge\/","url_meta":{"origin":47366,"position":2},"title":"ASX 200 sectors diverge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 24, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Descending Trend Index peaks on the ASX 200 warn of secondary selling pressure. A breach of support at 8200 would warn of a correction, with a target of 8000. Financials remain the strongest sub-index, headed for another test of resistance at 8600. Breakout would offer a medium-term target of 9200.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-24-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-24-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-24-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26197,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/06\/asx-breakout\/","url_meta":{"origin":47366,"position":3},"title":"ASX breakout","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 6, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 broke through resistance at 7200, signaling a fresh primary advance. Target for the breakout is 80001. Bond ETFs continue their sideways ranging pattern, suggesting no upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Financials broke through resistance at 6500, signaling another advance with a target of 80002. ASX 300\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26867,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/16\/iron-ore-saves-asx-from-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":47366,"position":4},"title":"Iron ore saves ASX from correction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 16, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore rallied to test resistance at $220\/ton1. Breakout would signal another advance, with a target of $2602. ASX 300 Metals & Mining broke through resistance at 6000, signaling a fresh advance with a long-term target of 70003. Rising Trend Index troughs confirm buying pressure. ASX 200 The ASX 200\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26636,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/03\/asx-hesitant-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":47366,"position":5},"title":"ASX hesitant","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 3, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 continues to test support but Trend Index troughs above zero indicate longer-term buying pressure. Respect of support at 7000 is likely and would confirm a fresh advance. Financial Markets Bond ETFs (BOND, IAF & VAF) are still rising but short-term weakness warns that long-term interest rates may\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47366"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47366\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47368,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47366\/revisions\/47368"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}