{"id":4732,"date":"2012-07-01T21:57:31","date_gmt":"2012-07-02T01:57:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=4732"},"modified":"2012-07-01T21:57:31","modified_gmt":"2012-07-02T01:57:31","slug":"chinas-failed-gamble-for-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/01\/chinas-failed-gamble-for-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s failed gamble for growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

Zarathustra<\/strong>: The idea of this gamble is simple. With the financial crisis in 2008 hitting the developed world, it naturally affected external demand. The Chinese knew these. At the end of 2007, trade surplus accounted for more than 7.5% of GDP. Currently, the same number is at its low single digit, probably 2% or so. No longer is China\u2019s growth driven by trade. It is now driven largely by domestic demand.<\/p>\n

And this is where the gamble lies. The massive stimulus was meant to stimulate domestic demand for a few years, in hope that perhaps the rest of the world will recover, and hence external demand would have recovered. Or else, in hope that domestic demand will become strong enough and sustainable so that the economy no longer depends on the health of the rest of the world…..<\/p>\n

via China\u2019s failed gamble for growth<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zarathustra: The idea of this gamble is simple. With the financial crisis in 2008 hitting the developed world, it naturally affected external demand. The Chinese knew these. At the end of 2007, trade surplus accounted for more than 7.5% of GDP. Currently, the same number is at its low single digit, probably 2% or so. … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “China\u2019s failed gamble for growth”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,5],"tags":[663,1079,3246,3456],"class_list":["post-4732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-economy","tag-china","tag-domestic-demand","tag-stimulus","tag-trade-surplus"],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s failed gamble for growth - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s failed gamble for growth - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Zarathustra: The idea of this gamble is simple. With the financial crisis in 2008 hitting the developed world, it naturally affected external demand. The Chinese knew these. At the end of 2007, trade surplus accounted for more than 7.5% of GDP. 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China's growing reliance on exports, as domestic demand slows, makes it vulnerable to increased trade barriers. Declining demand for crude oil warns that the global economy is slowing. Brent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5396,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/06\/chinas-overinvestment-the-problem-of-having-too-much\/","url_meta":{"origin":4732,"position":1},"title":"China\u2019s overinvestment: the problem of having too much","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"By Zarathustra: How is it that an economy grows at 7.6% yoy is squeezing corporate profitability so hard? How is it that an economy growing at 7.6% yoy feel like there is not enough demand for all the goods and services being produced?.....The answer, to our mind, is quite simply\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12826,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/25\/chinas-commodity-demand-has-barely-begun-its-fall-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":4732,"position":2},"title":"China’s commodity demand has barely begun its fall – MacroBusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"These four charts, posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks by David Llewellyn-Smith, illustrate China's failure to rebalance their economy and the challenge that economies reliant on Chinese real estate and infrastructure investment, like Australia, face. ....China now accounts for fully a third of global industrial production (up from only 5%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48178,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/09\/chinas-domestic-economy-implodes-but-exports-thrive\/","url_meta":{"origin":4732,"position":3},"title":"China’s domestic economy implodes but exports thrive","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 9, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"China's domestic economy is contracting and it is attempting to offset this by increasing subsidies for export industries -- which is bound to increase trade tensions with both Europe and the United States. China's domestic economy threatens a deflationary contraction, with the consumer price index shrinking by 0.8% in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-08-china-cpi-598x404.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-08-china-cpi-598x404.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-08-china-cpi-598x404.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56193,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/02\/chinas-economic-slump-threatens-iron-ore\/","url_meta":{"origin":4732,"position":4},"title":"China’s economic slump threatens iron ore","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"China's economic slump is evident in base metals markets, with prices of copper [orange below] and aluminum [blue] falling steeply over the past two months. The downward spiral is exacerbated by China attempting to export surpluses into international markets to compensate for the decline in domestic demand. Residential Property The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Base Metals"","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Copper & Aluminum","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-cu-al.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-cu-al.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-cu-al.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":57330,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/05\/china-hits-minsky-iceberg-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":4732,"position":5},"title":"China hits Minsky iceberg | Macrobusiness","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"From David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness: Stability leads to instability is China\u2019s problem. Central planning has for so long hit growth targets via stimulus that its economy is now a debt-saturated laggard that spends so much repaying interest on unproductive assets that it can\u2019t grow. Nowhere is this more obvious than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China: Local Government Refinancing","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-05-china-bondissues.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-05-china-bondissues.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-05-china-bondissues.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4732\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}