{"id":4610,"date":"2012-06-13T23:16:38","date_gmt":"2012-06-14T03:16:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=4610"},"modified":"2012-06-13T23:16:38","modified_gmt":"2012-06-14T03:16:38","slug":"the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Nomura<\/strong>: We have performed a detailed analysis of metal intensity of GDP for steel, copper and aluminium in the following pages, which we believe clearly outlines our view that China\u2019s economy is not large enough (in GDP terms) to support a continuation of the rapid growth in metal consumption seen in 2000-11.<\/p>\n<p>Our conclusions are based on an analysis of China\u2019s metal intensity of GDP rather than metal consumption per capita, and reflect a simple premise that while a country\u2019s population size may be an important indicator of a country\u2019s potential demand for industrial metals (per capita), the ability to meet potential demand is determined by the quantity of metal consumed in relation to the size of economic output (ie, GDP, not GDP per capita). Hence, in our view, metal intensity of GDP is a more important variable to monitor than per capita metal consumption.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Zarathustra<\/strong>: The reason is that, according to Nomura, the per-capita analysis ignores the composition of China\u2019s GDP growth.  China\u2019s investment driven growth is very metal intensive.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.alsosprachanalyst.com\/economy\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition.html\">The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nomura: We have performed a detailed analysis of metal intensity of GDP for steel, copper and aluminium in the following pages, which we believe clearly outlines our view that China\u2019s economy is not large enough (in GDP terms) to support a continuation of the rapid growth in metal consumption seen in 2000-11. Our conclusions are &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[178,663,729,815,1793,1902],"class_list":["post-4610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","tag-aluminum","tag-china","tag-coking-coal","tag-copper","tag-imports","tag-iron-ore"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nomura: We have performed a detailed analysis of metal intensity of GDP for steel, copper and aluminium in the following pages, which we believe clearly outlines our view that China\u2019s economy is not large enough (in GDP terms) to support a continuation of the rapid growth in metal consumption seen in 2000-11. Our conclusions are &hellip; Continue reading &quot;The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-06-14T03:16:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-06-14T03:16:38+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/\"},\"wordCount\":192,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Aluminum\",\"China\",\"coking coal\",\"Copper\",\"imports\",\"Iron Ore\"],\"articleSection\":[\"China &amp; HK\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/\",\"name\":\"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-06-14T03:16:38+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition - the patient investor","og_description":"Nomura: We have performed a detailed analysis of metal intensity of GDP for steel, copper and aluminium in the following pages, which we believe clearly outlines our view that China\u2019s economy is not large enough (in GDP terms) to support a continuation of the rapid growth in metal consumption seen in 2000-11. Our conclusions are &hellip; Continue reading \"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2012-06-14T03:16:38+00:00","author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition","datePublished":"2012-06-14T03:16:38+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/"},"wordCount":192,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["Aluminum","China","coking coal","Copper","imports","Iron Ore"],"articleSection":["China &amp; HK"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/","name":"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2012-06-14T03:16:38+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/13\/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The China-driven commodities super-cycle debate: Nomura edition"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1cm","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6258,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/22\/nomura-china-recovery-unsustainable-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":4610,"position":0},"title":"Nomura: China recovery unsustainable &#124; &#124; MacroBusiness","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 22, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting take by Nomura, reported by FT Alphaville. Nomura thinks that after this year, China\u2019s days of 8 per cent-plus growth are finished, and that stimulus efforts will run into problems with CPI inflation, not to mention its own credit system..... via Nomura: China recovery unsustainable | | MacroBusiness.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5990,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/","url_meta":{"origin":4610,"position":1},"title":"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Excerpt from a paper by Israel Malkin and Mark M. Spiegel at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The two believe that China's richest provinces, Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing a slow-down in GDP growth (per capita) as they experience a classic middle-income trap, while China's poorer provinces continue\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48609,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/20\/will-the-rba-cut-first\/","url_meta":{"origin":4610,"position":2},"title":"Will the RBA cut first?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Recent articles in Macrobusiness and the ABC suggest that the RBA is likely to cut interest rates early, ahead of the Fed. Their conclusions are based on a February 16 research note by Gareth Aird at Commbank Divergence between the Australian and US consumer which provides some excellent charts: The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & RBA Cash Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30779,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/04\/michael-pettis-common-prosperity-and-commodities\/","url_meta":{"origin":4610,"position":3},"title":"Michael Pettis | Common prosperity and commodities","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2022","format":"video","excerpt":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/LxQ5CiS1QfA?t=702 Listening to Michael Pettis discussing China's \"common prosperity\" drive, it's clear that investment will have to fall as a percentage of GDP in order for consumption to rise. That means \"Chinese consumption of cement and industrial metals will have to go down.\" Conclusion There is no country that is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/LxQ5CiS1QfA\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":10474,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/31\/china-the-best-way-to-manipulate-gdp-is-to-lower-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":4610,"position":4},"title":"China: The best way to manipulate GDP is to lower inflation","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 31, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"From George Dorgan: The best way to push real GDP upwards is, hence, to understate inflation via the GDP deflator. Lombard Street Research assumes that Chinese officials followed that approach: Via Wall Street Journal Blogs Lombard Street Research, a London economic research firm that takes a bearish view on China,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snbchf.snbchfcom.netdna-cdn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/AI-CG267_GDP_CR_G_20140123223231.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snbchf.snbchfcom.netdna-cdn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/AI-CG267_GDP_CR_G_20140123223231.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snbchf.snbchfcom.netdna-cdn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/AI-CG267_GDP_CR_G_20140123223231.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":860,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/19\/china-to-liquidate-us-treasuries-not-dollars-telegraph\/","url_meta":{"origin":4610,"position":5},"title":"China to &#8216;liquidate&#8217; US Treasuries, not dollars \u2013 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 19, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"A key rate setter-for China's central bank let slip \u2013 or was it a slip? \u2013 that Beijing aims to run down its portfolio of US debt as soon as safely possible. \"The incremental parts of our of our foreign reserve holdings should be invested in physical assets,\" said Li\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4610\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}