{"id":45919,"date":"2023-12-01T04:04:23","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T04:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=45919"},"modified":"2023-12-01T04:04:23","modified_gmt":"2023-12-01T04:04:23","slug":"10-year-treasury-yields-rally-dollar-surges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/01\/10-year-treasury-yields-rally-dollar-surges\/","title":{"rendered":"10-Year Treasury yields rally, Dollar surges"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ten-year Treasury yields tested support at 4.25% yesterday before rallying to 4.35%. Breakout above 4.35% would suggest a stronger move to test 4.50%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-10yy.png?resize=525%2C354&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"354\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Dollar index surged in response and is likely to test resistance at 103.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold weakened slightly, to $2040 per ounce.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Long-term View<\/h2>\n<p>Jim Bianco thinks we are headed for 5.5% yield on 10-Year Treasuries by mid-2024. He says that the 10-year yield should match nominal GDP growth:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>No recession next year<\/li>\n<li>Inflation bottoms around 3%<\/li>\n<li>Real growth of 2% to 3%<\/li>\n<li>That gives nominal growth of 5.0% to 6.0%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/player.cnbc.com\/p\/gZWlPC\/cnbc_global?playertype=synd&amp;byGuid=7000324343\" width=\"560\" height=\"349\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2>Growth<\/h2>\n<p>Nominal GDP growth ticked up to 6.3% for the 12 months to September, but the long-term trend is downward.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-gdp.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nominal GDP Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Growth in Aggregate weekly hours worked declined to 1.1% for the 12 months to October &#8212; a good indicator of real growth.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-28-weeklyhours.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Estimated Aggregate Non-Farm Weekly Hours Worked\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Continued unemployment claims are climbing, suggesting that (real) growth will slow further in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-continuedclaims.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Continued Claims\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Inflation<\/h2>\n<p>The other component of nominal GDP growth is inflation, where five-year consumer expectations (from the University of Michigan survey) have climbed to above 3.0%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-23-5Y-inflation.png?resize=525%2C378&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"University of Michigan Inflation Expectations 5-Year\" width=\"525\" height=\"378\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, core PCE inflation (orange) and trimmed mean PCE (red) are both trending lower.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-corepce.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Core PCE &amp; Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Services PCE inflation (brown below) is also trending lower but likely to prove more difficult to subdue.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-pce-services.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"PCE Services Inflation\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Real Interest Rate<\/h2>\n<p>Jim Bianco suggests that nominal GDP growth will fall to between 5.0% and 6.0% in 2024 &#8212; a good approximate of return on new investment\u00a0 &#8212; while the 10-year yield will rise to a similar level. This represents a neutral rate of interest\u00a0 that is unlikely to fuel further inflation.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-10y-gdp.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield &amp; Nominal GDP Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Inflation builds when the 10-year yield exceeds GDP growth by a wide margin. The long-term chart below shows how PCE inflation (red) climbs when 10-year Treasury yields minus GDP growth (purple) fall near -5.0%. Inflation also falls sharply when the purple line rises above 5.0%, normally during a recession when GDP growth is negative.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-10y-gdp-pce.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield minus Nominal GDP Growth &amp; PCE Inflation\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Jim Bianco&#8217;s premise of 10-year yields at 5.5% is based on the expectation that the Fed will maintain neutral real interest rates in order to tame inflation. Whether the Fed will be able to achieve this is questionable.<\/p>\n<p>Japan and China have stopped investing in Treasuries, commercial banks are net sellers, and the private sector does not have the capacity to absorb growing Treasury issuance to fund federal deficits. That leaves the Fed as buyer of last resort.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed may be forced to intervene in the Treasury market, keeping a lid on long-term yields while expanding the money supply. The likely result will be higher inflation and a weaker Dollar, both of which are bullish for Gold.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgements<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CNBC\/Jim Bianco: 10-Year Treasury yield to rebound to 5.5%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ten-year Treasury yields tested support at 4.25% yesterday before rallying to 4.35%. Breakout above 4.35% would suggest a stronger move to test 4.50%. The Dollar index surged in response and is likely to test resistance at 103. Gold weakened slightly, to $2040 per ounce. Long-term View Jim Bianco thinks we are headed for 5.5% yield &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/01\/10-year-treasury-yields-rally-dollar-surges\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;10-Year Treasury yields rally, Dollar surges&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,13,34],"tags":[69,4412,4957,1073,2486,6029,3204,5994],"class_list":["post-45919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-continued-claims","tag-core-pce","tag-dollar-index","tag-nominal-gdp-growth","tag-pce-services-inflation","tag-spot-gold","tag-trimmed-mean-pce-inflation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>10-Year Treasury yields rally, Dollar surges - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields rally, Dollar surges - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ten-year Treasury yields tested support at 4.25% yesterday before rallying to 4.35%. Breakout above 4.35% would suggest a stronger move to test 4.50%. The Dollar index surged in response and is likely to test resistance at 103. Gold weakened slightly, to $2040 per ounce. 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","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-bWD","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62212,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/02\/weak-labor-report-hammers-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":45919,"position":0},"title":"Weak labor report hammers stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 and Dow fell sharply on the poor July jobs report Financial markets warn of easy credit conditions, which could lead to markets mispricing risk Real GDP growth is misleading due to the buildup of inventories in Q1, ahead of tariffs, and their subsequent rundown in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-04-jobs2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-04-jobs2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-04-jobs2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58630,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/23\/all-roads-lead-to-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":45919,"position":1},"title":"&#8220;All roads lead to inflation&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed rate cuts have spiked long-term yields over the past three weeks, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.2% on Tuesday. The bond market expects a resurgence of inflation. That may not be a policy defect but a policy goal. Paul Tudor Jones: \"All roads lead to inflation\" Veteran\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-22-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-22-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-22-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62206,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/31\/fed-stands-firm-so-does-boj\/","url_meta":{"origin":45919,"position":2},"title":"Fed stands firm, so does BOJ","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 31, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Fed held the funds rate target steady at 4.25% to 4.50% The Bank of Japan followed up, holding its policy rate steady at 0.5% The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average eased slightly The US Dollar Index jumped, weakening demand for gold Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-30-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-30-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-30-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":40619,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/28\/us-gdp-slows-as-bear-signals-grow\/","url_meta":{"origin":45919,"position":3},"title":"US GDP slows as bear signals grow","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 28, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Real GDP slowed to a low 0.96 per cent for 2022, the smallest growth since the pandemic in 2020. Nominal GDP, unadjusted for inflation, slowed to 7.32%, reflecting a 6.28% increase in price levels. The fall is largely due to base effects, with quarterly real GDP reasonably steady at 0.72%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-26-realgdp-a.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-26-realgdp-a.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-26-realgdp-a.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":52119,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/01\/bitcoin-canary-falls-off-its-perch\/","url_meta":{"origin":45919,"position":4},"title":"Bitcoin canary falls off its perch","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin broke support at $61K, warning of contracting liquidity in financial markets. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level but respect is likely and would confirm a target of $52K. Commercial bank reserves at the Fed (blue below) have shrunk by almost $300 billion in the past two weeks,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-30-btc2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-30-btc2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-30-btc2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59540,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/28\/low-core-pce-inflation-conceals-underlying-pressure\/","url_meta":{"origin":45919,"position":5},"title":"Low core PCE inflation conceals underlying pressure","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 28, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Rising liquidity in financial markets is supporting stocks and bonds. Ten-year Treasury yields have softened, weakening the Dollar. However, gold and silver remain bearish after a steep correction. Stocks The S&P 500 is retracing to test new support at 6000. Respect would confirm a fresh advance, while a breach would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-27-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-27-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-27-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45919"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45919\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45927,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45919\/revisions\/45927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}