Stephen Koukoulas<\/a> points out: Nominal GDP (before adjustment for inflation) only grew by 0.3 percent. The cause of the Real GDP surge is a sharp fall in the GDP price deflator, used to adjust for inflation. Falling prices may be welcomed by the consumer but they warn of a deflationary contraction — as in 2008\/9 when nominal GDP fell by 5.0 percent.<\/p>\n![\"Australian](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-06-07-gdp-au.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n
In the long-term, the Australian Dollar normally follows commodity prices. At present the CRB Commodities Index is falling sharply and the Aussie is likely to follow.<\/p>\n
![\"CRB](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-06-07-crb-aud.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Aussie Dollar rallied strongly off support at $0.96 against the greenback, on the back of strong GDP numbers. Expect a test of the declining trendline around $1.02. A peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, would warn of a strong primary down-trend. Be careful what you measure! Australian Real GDP may have grown … <\/p>\n
Continue reading “Forex: Australia – be careful what you measure”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,7],"tags":[287,294,860,3241],"class_list":["post-4569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-forex","tag-aussie-dollar","tag-australian-gdp","tag-crb-commodities-inde","tag-stephen-koukoulas"],"yoast_head":"\nForex: Australia - be careful what you measure - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex: Australia - be careful what you measure - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Aussie Dollar rallied strongly off support at $0.96 against the greenback, on the back of strong GDP numbers. Expect a test of the declining trendline around $1.02. A peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, would warn of a strong primary down-trend. Be careful what you measure! 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1bH","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":60671,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/31\/strong-uptrends-and-new-highs-for-the-asx-200-and-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":4569,"position":0},"title":"Strong uptrends and new highs for ASX 200 and gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 31, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"More weekly charts, which reflect the long-term trend rather than current volatility. The S&P 500 continues its strong uptrend, though there are signs that financial market liquidity may have peaked. Real GDP has grown at a steady 2.5% in 2024. Gold made a new high at $2,800 per ounce, with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-30-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-30-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-30-spx-w.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":23764,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/20\/us-federal-debt-dilemma\/","url_meta":{"origin":4569,"position":1},"title":"US federal debt dilemma","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Paul Krugman has a simple solution to the US federal debt: We have been pointing out for while that the US Treasury is unlikely to ever repay the federal debt and instead will rely on inflation to lift GDP (and tax revenues). Krugman overlooks one significant problem, however. Federal debt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":45919,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/01\/10-year-treasury-yields-rally-dollar-surges\/","url_meta":{"origin":4569,"position":2},"title":"10-Year Treasury yields rally, Dollar surges","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Ten-year Treasury yields tested support at 4.25% yesterday before rallying to 4.35%. Breakout above 4.35% would suggest a stronger move to test 4.50%. The Dollar index surged in response and is likely to test resistance at 103. Gold weakened slightly, to $2040 per ounce. Long-term View Jim Bianco thinks we\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-10yy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-10yy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-30-10yy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11815,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/13\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\/","url_meta":{"origin":4569,"position":3},"title":"US GDP: Where is it headed?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 13, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"I originally got this from Matt Busigin (I think). Average Hourly Earnings multiplied by Average Weekly Hours (Total Private: Nonfarm) gives a pretty good indication of where GDP is headed, well ahead of the BEA accounts. Remember this is nominal GDP, so the latest (April 2015) figure of 4.38% would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nominal GDP compared to Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees (Total Private) multiplied by Average Weekly Hours (Total Private Nonfarm)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-14-gdp-earnings.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-14-gdp-earnings.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-14-gdp-earnings.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6106,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/11\/taking-the-leverage-out-of-economic-growth-reuters\/","url_meta":{"origin":4569,"position":4},"title":"Taking the leverage out of economic growth | Reuters","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 11, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Edward Hadas points out that long-term credit growth has exceeded growth in nominal GDP (real GDP plus inflation) in the US and Europe for some time. Not only does this fuel a credit bubble but it leads to a build up of inflationary pressure within the economy. If not evident\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16373,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/27\/australias-debt-bomb\/","url_meta":{"origin":4569,"position":5},"title":"Australia’s Debt Bomb","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 27, 2018","format":"video","excerpt":"Martin North interviews economist John Adams about structural imbalances in the Australian (and global) economy. \"I do think they will try to print their way out of this problem.\" https:\/\/youtu.be\/5hJpC3bmzZU Hat tip to Macrobusiness. Comment: I do take issue with the comparison of CPI to Broad Money growth. Broad money\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/5hJpC3bmzZU\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4569\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"Australian](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-06-07-aud.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
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