{"id":45625,"date":"2023-11-23T06:28:13","date_gmt":"2023-11-23T06:28:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=45625"},"modified":"2023-11-30T01:41:05","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T01:41:05","slug":"sp-500-rallies-while-consumer-sentiment-falls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/23\/sp-500-rallies-while-consumer-sentiment-falls\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 rallies while consumer sentiment falls"},"content":{"rendered":"

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 61.3 for November. Levels below 70 in the past have signaled a recession.<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

Consumer sentiment is in sharp contrast to robust personal consumption expenditures which at 93% of disposable personal income are well above pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n

\"Personal<\/p>\n

Mortgage rates above 7.0% failed to dampen discretionary spending, with most households having locked in low fixed mortgage rates over the pandemic.<\/p>\n

\"30-Year<\/p>\n

Home Sales<\/h2>\n

Existing home sales declined to an annual rate of 3.8 million, with households are reluctant to give up their cheap fixed-rate mortgages.<\/p>\n

\"Existing<\/p>\n

New home sales surged as a result, boosting residential construction.<\/p>\n

\"New<\/p>\n

Inflation Expectations<\/h2>\n

The University of Michigan November survey shows 1-year inflation expectations increased to 4.50%.<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

Five-year expectations increased to 3.2%, with the 3-month moving average of 3.0% well above the Fed’s 2.0% target.<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

Rising inflation expectations mean that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

Interest Rates<\/h2>\n

10-Year Treasury yields continue to test support at 4.40% after Treasury weighted new issuance towards the front-end of the yield curve — largely funded by money market funds currently invested in repo. Breach of support would offer a target of 4.0% — bearish for the Dollar.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

Stocks<\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 is testing its July high of 4600. Breakout is uncertain but would not signal a bull market unless confirmed by other indices.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX) has recovered less than 60% of its last decline.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) is even weaker, retracing less than 50% of its last decline, suggesting that investors have little appetite for risk.<\/p>\n

\"Russell<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Transportation Average has also retraced less than 50%. The Trend Index below zero continues to warn of selling pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Gold and the Dollar<\/h2>\n

The Dollar Index retraced to test resistance at 104. Respect is likely and breakout below 103 would offer a target of 100.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

The weakening Dollar is bullish for Gold which is testing resistance at $2000 per ounce. Breakout would offer a short-term target of the previous high at $2050.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/h2>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Metals Index ($BIM) fell sharply, warning of another test of primary support at 153. Breach would warn of a global recession, especially if mirrored by a similar breach in Copper.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Copper is testing its descending trendline at 8300. Reversal below primary support at 7800 would warn of a global recession. China consumes about 50% of the world’s copper production, most of it used in construction. So a lot depends on China’s efforts to rescue their ailing property sector.<\/p>\n

\"Copper\"<\/p>\n

The downward spiral of China\u2019s ailing property sector shows no sign of abating despite the government\u2019s rollout of a seemingly endless series of supportive but as yet ineffective measures, with the crisis stretching for over three years…..<\/p>\n

The market for Chinese developers\u2019 dollar-denominated bonds has seen a meltdown over the past two years, losing 87% of its value. The rout has wiped out $135.5 billion of value from $154.9 billion of outstanding notes, according to analysis by Debtwire. (Caixin<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Brent crude is testing resistance at $83 per barrel. Respect would warn of another downward leg to $72 and strengthen a bear market warning from Copper and base metals.<\/p>\n

\"Brent<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Personal consumption expenditures remain strong despite falling consumer sentiment. The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 4600 but the advance is narrow, with investors avoiding risk in the broader market.<\/p>\n

The Dollar weakened on the back of falling long-term Treasury yields, boosting demand for Gold which is testing resistance at $2000 per ounce. Breakout would offer a short-term target of $2050.<\/p>\n

Copper and base metals are expected to again test primary support as doubts remain over China’s ailing property sector. Breach of support would warn of a global recession.<\/p>\n

Inflation expectations remain persistent, with five-year expectations at 3.0% in the November University of Michigan consumer survey, well above the Fed’s target of 2.0%. The likelihood of rate cuts in early 2024 is remote unless a major collapse in financial markets forces the Fed’s hand.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgements<\/h4>\n

Macrobusiness: China\u2019s property black hole sucks in the CCP<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 61.3 for November. Levels below 70 in the past have signaled a recession. Consumer sentiment is in sharp contrast to robust personal consumption expenditures which at 93% of disposable personal income are well above pre-pandemic levels. Mortgage rates above 7.0% failed to dampen discretionary spending, … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500 rallies while consumer sentiment falls”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5402,44,3761,9,10,13,34,35],"tags":[69,6118,495,1073,5809,6201,5701,6203,4537,6202,3010,6107,3204,6177,6178,5068],"class_list":["post-45625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-base-metals","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-housing-economy","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-30-year-mortgage-rate","tag-brent-crude","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-metals-index-bim","tag-dow-jones-transportation-average-djt","tag-existing-home-sales","tag-new-one-unit-home-sales","tag-personal-consumption-expenditure","tag-russell-2000-small-caps-index-ishares-etf-iwm","tag-sp-500","tag-sp-500-equal-weighted-index-iqx","tag-spot-gold","tag-university-of-michigan-inflation-expectations-1-year","tag-university-of-michigan-inflation-expectations-5-year","tag-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 rallies while consumer sentiment falls - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 rallies while consumer sentiment falls - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 61.3 for November. 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","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-bRT","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":61395,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/18\/dow-and-sp-500-bounce-gold-soars-to-new-highs\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":0},"title":"Dow and S&P 500 bounce, gold soars to new highs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow and S&P 500 show a healthy bounce. However, the bear market signal stands even if they recover above their primary support levels. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% but encountered selling near the close. Respect of resistance at 5800 would confirm the earlier bear signal, a reliable entry point\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-17-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-17-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-17-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62293,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/18\/consumers-the-dow-and-secular-trends\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":1},"title":"Consumers, the Dow, and secular trends","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Consumer sentiment remains weak, and inflation expectations are high The Fed maintains strong liquidity to support financial markets A Dow breakout above 45K would signal the third phase of a bull market Secular trends in Treasuries and the Dollar fuel long-term demand for gold Retail sales show no\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Real Retail & Food Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-realretail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56760,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/17\/gold-breaks-through-2500-per-ounce\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":2},"title":"Gold breakout above $2,500 per ounce","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke to a new high above $2,500 per ounce, boosted by growing expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Long-term Treasury yields fell, and the Dollar weakened. Stocks lifted, but there are concerning signs of tighter liquidity in financial markets. Low crude oil, base metals, and iron ore prices\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59442,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/23\/liquidity-lifts-the-sp-500-but-signs-of-slow-down-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":3},"title":"Liquidity lifts the S&P 500 but signs of slow-down ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Financial markets signal strong liquidity, lifting the S&P 500 to test resistance at 6000. Consumer sentiment is improving, but current perceptions of economic conditions remain weak, and long-term expectations indicate rising inflation. Heavy truck sales also warn of an economic slowdown. Stocks The S&P 500 is headed for another test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-22-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-22-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-22-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58266,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/12\/sp-500-asx-200-and-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":4},"title":"S&P 500, ASX 200 and Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 12, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 broke resistance at 5800, strengthening commitment to our target of 6000. Rising Trend Index troughs continue to signal buying pressure. The equal-weighted index ($IQX) is testing resistance at 7300. Breakout would offer a target of 7500. Trend Index troughs signal similar buying pressure. Treasury Markets The 10-year\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-11-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-11-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-11-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61556,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/27\/a-bear-rally-but-capital-outflows-likely-to-continue\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":5},"title":"A bear rally, but capital outflows likely to continue","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 27, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have rallied but remain below their 50-week weighted MA, indicating a bear market 10-year Treasury yields eased slightly, but the declining dollar continues to warn of capital outflows from US financial markets Plunging consumer sentiment warns of recession Gold continues in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-25-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-25-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-25-spx-w.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45625"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45625\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45851,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45625\/revisions\/45851"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}