{"id":45625,"date":"2023-11-23T06:28:13","date_gmt":"2023-11-23T06:28:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=45625"},"modified":"2023-11-30T01:41:05","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T01:41:05","slug":"sp-500-rallies-while-consumer-sentiment-falls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/23\/sp-500-rallies-while-consumer-sentiment-falls\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 rallies while consumer sentiment falls"},"content":{"rendered":"

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 61.3 for November. Levels below 70 in the past have signaled a recession.<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

Consumer sentiment is in sharp contrast to robust personal consumption expenditures which at 93% of disposable personal income are well above pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n

\"Personal<\/p>\n

Mortgage rates above 7.0% failed to dampen discretionary spending, with most households having locked in low fixed mortgage rates over the pandemic.<\/p>\n

\"30-Year<\/p>\n

Home Sales<\/h2>\n

Existing home sales declined to an annual rate of 3.8 million, with households are reluctant to give up their cheap fixed-rate mortgages.<\/p>\n

\"Existing<\/p>\n

New home sales surged as a result, boosting residential construction.<\/p>\n

\"New<\/p>\n

Inflation Expectations<\/h2>\n

The University of Michigan November survey shows 1-year inflation expectations increased to 4.50%.<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

Five-year expectations increased to 3.2%, with the 3-month moving average of 3.0% well above the Fed’s 2.0% target.<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

Rising inflation expectations mean that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

Interest Rates<\/h2>\n

10-Year Treasury yields continue to test support at 4.40% after Treasury weighted new issuance towards the front-end of the yield curve — largely funded by money market funds currently invested in repo. Breach of support would offer a target of 4.0% — bearish for the Dollar.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

Stocks<\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 is testing its July high of 4600. Breakout is uncertain but would not signal a bull market unless confirmed by other indices.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX) has recovered less than 60% of its last decline.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) is even weaker, retracing less than 50% of its last decline, suggesting that investors have little appetite for risk.<\/p>\n

\"Russell<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Transportation Average has also retraced less than 50%. The Trend Index below zero continues to warn of selling pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Gold and the Dollar<\/h2>\n

The Dollar Index retraced to test resistance at 104. Respect is likely and breakout below 103 would offer a target of 100.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

The weakening Dollar is bullish for Gold which is testing resistance at $2000 per ounce. Breakout would offer a short-term target of the previous high at $2050.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/h2>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Metals Index ($BIM) fell sharply, warning of another test of primary support at 153. Breach would warn of a global recession, especially if mirrored by a similar breach in Copper.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Copper is testing its descending trendline at 8300. Reversal below primary support at 7800 would warn of a global recession. China consumes about 50% of the world’s copper production, most of it used in construction. So a lot depends on China’s efforts to rescue their ailing property sector.<\/p>\n

\"Copper\"<\/p>\n

The downward spiral of China\u2019s ailing property sector shows no sign of abating despite the government\u2019s rollout of a seemingly endless series of supportive but as yet ineffective measures, with the crisis stretching for over three years…..<\/p>\n

The market for Chinese developers\u2019 dollar-denominated bonds has seen a meltdown over the past two years, losing 87% of its value. The rout has wiped out $135.5 billion of value from $154.9 billion of outstanding notes, according to analysis by Debtwire. (Caixin<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Brent crude is testing resistance at $83 per barrel. Respect would warn of another downward leg to $72 and strengthen a bear market warning from Copper and base metals.<\/p>\n

\"Brent<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Personal consumption expenditures remain strong despite falling consumer sentiment. The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 4600 but the advance is narrow, with investors avoiding risk in the broader market.<\/p>\n

The Dollar weakened on the back of falling long-term Treasury yields, boosting demand for Gold which is testing resistance at $2000 per ounce. Breakout would offer a short-term target of $2050.<\/p>\n

Copper and base metals are expected to again test primary support as doubts remain over China’s ailing property sector. Breach of support would warn of a global recession.<\/p>\n

Inflation expectations remain persistent, with five-year expectations at 3.0% in the November University of Michigan consumer survey, well above the Fed’s target of 2.0%. The likelihood of rate cuts in early 2024 is remote unless a major collapse in financial markets forces the Fed’s hand.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgements<\/h4>\n

Macrobusiness: China\u2019s property black hole sucks in the CCP<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 61.3 for November. Levels below 70 in the past have signaled a recession. Consumer sentiment is in sharp contrast to robust personal consumption expenditures which at 93% of disposable personal income are well above pre-pandemic levels. Mortgage rates above 7.0% failed to dampen discretionary spending, … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500 rallies while consumer sentiment falls”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5402,44,3761,9,10,13,34,35],"tags":[69,6118,495,1073,5809,6201,5701,6203,4537,6202,3010,6107,3204,6177,6178,5068],"class_list":["post-45625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-base-metals","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-housing-economy","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-30-year-mortgage-rate","tag-brent-crude","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-metals-index-bim","tag-dow-jones-transportation-average-djt","tag-existing-home-sales","tag-new-one-unit-home-sales","tag-personal-consumption-expenditure","tag-russell-2000-small-caps-index-ishares-etf-iwm","tag-sp-500","tag-sp-500-equal-weighted-index-iqx","tag-spot-gold","tag-university-of-michigan-inflation-expectations-1-year","tag-university-of-michigan-inflation-expectations-5-year","tag-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 rallies while consumer sentiment falls - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 rallies while consumer sentiment falls - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 61.3 for November. 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","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-bRT","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":61395,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/18\/dow-and-sp-500-bounce-gold-soars-to-new-highs\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":0},"title":"Dow and S&P 500 bounce, gold soars to new highs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow and S&P 500 show a healthy bounce. However, the bear market signal stands even if they recover above their primary support levels. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% but encountered selling near the close. Respect of resistance at 5800 would confirm the earlier bear signal, a reliable entry point\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-17-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-17-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-17-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62293,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/18\/consumers-the-dow-and-secular-trends\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":1},"title":"Consumers, the Dow, and secular trends","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Consumer sentiment remains weak, and inflation expectations are high The Fed maintains strong liquidity to support financial markets A Dow breakout above 45K would signal the third phase of a bull market Secular trends in Treasuries and the Dollar fuel long-term demand for gold Retail sales show no\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Real Retail & Food Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-realretail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56760,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/17\/gold-breaks-through-2500-per-ounce\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":2},"title":"Gold breakout above $2,500 per ounce","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke to a new high above $2,500 per ounce, boosted by growing expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Long-term Treasury yields fell, and the Dollar weakened. Stocks lifted, but there are concerning signs of tighter liquidity in financial markets. Low crude oil, base metals, and iron ore prices\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59442,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/23\/liquidity-lifts-the-sp-500-but-signs-of-slow-down-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":3},"title":"Liquidity lifts the S&P 500 but signs of slow-down ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Financial markets signal strong liquidity, lifting the S&P 500 to test resistance at 6000. Consumer sentiment is improving, but current perceptions of economic conditions remain weak, and long-term expectations indicate rising inflation. Heavy truck sales also warn of an economic slowdown. Stocks The S&P 500 is headed for another test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-22-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-22-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-22-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58266,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/12\/sp-500-asx-200-and-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":4},"title":"S&P 500, ASX 200 and Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 12, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 broke resistance at 5800, strengthening commitment to our target of 6000. Rising Trend Index troughs continue to signal buying pressure. The equal-weighted index ($IQX) is testing resistance at 7300. Breakout would offer a target of 7500. Trend Index troughs signal similar buying pressure. Treasury Markets The 10-year\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-11-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-11-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-11-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61556,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/27\/a-bear-rally-but-capital-outflows-likely-to-continue\/","url_meta":{"origin":45625,"position":5},"title":"A bear rally, but capital outflows likely to continue","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 27, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have rallied but remain below their 50-week weighted MA, indicating a bear market 10-year Treasury yields eased slightly, but the declining dollar continues to warn of capital outflows from US financial markets Plunging consumer sentiment warns of recession Gold continues in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-25-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-25-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-25-spx-w.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45625"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45625\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45851,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45625\/revisions\/45851"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}