{"id":45254,"date":"2023-11-08T08:24:22","date_gmt":"2023-11-08T08:24:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=45254"},"modified":"2023-11-30T01:46:41","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T01:46:41","slug":"long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/","title":{"rendered":"Long-term outlook: How does it all end?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What economic path are the US and major allies likely to take over the next decade? Here is my take on how this is likely to pan out.<\/p>\n<p>First, let&#8217;s start with a template of what a healthy, growing economy looks like.<\/p>\n<h2>A Virtuous Cycle<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Growth<\/strong> is dependent on two factors:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Demographics &#8212; that is a growing, skilled workforce; and<\/li>\n<li>Productivity &#8212; where output grows at a faster rate than the workforce.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Growth requires not only a growing population but a growing workforce. An ageing population or large population under the age of 25 is unlikely to contribute much to output. What is needed are people of 25 to 55 who hold down productive jobs. We also need to ensure that they have the necessary skills &#8212; productivity tends to rise with education levels. Education that is skills-based is worth a lot more than a barista with a bachelors degree.<\/p>\n<p>The most important source of productivity growth, however, is investment. More specifically, private investment &#8212; government investment tends to provide a short-term boost to the economy but acts as a long-term drag on growth (Dr Lacy Hunt). Mechanization and automation increase the output per worker, boosting productivity.<\/p>\n<p>The chart below shows US private domestic non-residential investment (blue) at a healthy 13.5% of GDP, while productivity (magenta), calculated as real GDP\/total non-farm employees, has grown steadily since the 1950s.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Private Investment\/GDP &amp; Real GDP\/Total Non-farm Payroll\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"clickthrough\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Savings<\/strong> are needed to fund private investment. Either domestic savings or offshore borrowings. Domestic savings are better than foreign debt, especially if debt is denominated in a second currency which can cause volatile short-term capital flows. Workers tend to consume what they earn, with low rates of savings, while the wealthy tend to have far higher savings rates. High levels of inequality increases the amount of saving but depresses consumption. Low consumption leads to fewer investment opportunities, so it is important to get the balance right. Forcing workers to save (e.g. through compulsory superannuation) is one solution.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Low deficits<\/strong> are essential to ensure that government borrowing does not crowd out private investment. Government investment &#8212; as we mentioned earlier &#8212; is no substitute for private investment as it leads to low productivity and low growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Monetary policy<\/strong> is often used to prime the pump &#8212; stimulating consumption and investment through low interest rates. But cheap debt has short-term benefits and long-term costs that are often not carefully considered. First, low interest rates discourage private savings which are the lifeblood of a healthy economy. Second, low interest rates are effected by the Fed (or central bank) growing the supply of money at a faster rate than output (GDP). But that causes inflation after a lag of one to two years, forcing the Fed to contract the supply of money and destabilize growth. Third, cheap debt and high inflation (with negative real interest rates) encourage malinvestment in speculative assets that are expected to grow in price without necessarily growing output. The net result is that productive investment is crowded out by both malinvestment (speculation) and government deficits, harming long-term growth.<\/p>\n<p>There is also a fourth, far more insidious factor, that operates with much greater lags. Home prices tend to grow at a much faster rate than incomes during times of low interest rates, reducing access to homes by younger workers entering the workforce. New household formation slows and so does the birth rate, undermining long-term demographics. This can be remedied to some extent by skilled immigration but often migrants are unskilled and face both language and cultural challenges that lead to poor assimilation and a two-tier economy.<\/p>\n<p>In summary, what is needed is a growing, skilled workforce with rising productivity from healthy private investment. Private investment requires stable growth &#8212; to facilitate reliable projections rather than unstable boom-bust cycles &#8212; and sufficient funding from private saving. Government deficits need to be kept low and real interest rates reasonably high (say 3%) to ensure low inflation and encourage efficient allocation of capital (to productive private investment).<\/p>\n<h2>In the Wilderness<\/h2>\n<p>We are a long way from the above ideal.<\/p>\n<p>The chart below shows the decline in 10-year average real GDP growth, since 1960, and rising debt relative to nominal GDP.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-07-debt-gdp.png?resize=525%2C344&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Total Debt\/GDP &amp; Real GDP Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"344\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Growth is slowing due to poor demographics, rising government deficits, and malinvestment from negative real interest rates. Geopolitical tensions and the need to secure supply chains and sources of energy mean that government spending is likely to exceed tax revenues by a wide margin for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n<p>Ballooning government debt is likely to crowd out private investment, ensuring low future growth. The chart below shows CBO projections of debt-to-GDP for the next thirty years.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-16-cbo-debt-gdp.png?resize=525%2C237&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CBO Projection of Debt\/GDP\" width=\"525\" height=\"237\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Fed will likely have no choice but to suppress long-term interest rates in order to assist government in servicing the massive interest burden on its debt. That is likely to lead to high inflation, negative real interest rates, malinvestment in speculative assets, low growth, and rising instability (Hyman Minsky).<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>We are likely to face a decade of stagflation, with low growth, high inflation and unstable financial markets.<\/p>\n<p>Hopefully, inflation will boost nominal GDP relative to government debt, increasing serviceability, over time. That would provide an opportunity to reduce fiscal deficits and establish healthy monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, don&#8217;t fight the Fed. When interest rates are low and inflation is high, invest in real assets. Look for value &#8212; with stable income streams which can withstand tempestuous cycles &#8212; rather than speculative growth.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgements<\/h4>\n<p>Professor Percy Allan, University of Technology Sydney: Looking Beyond 2024<\/p>\n<div class=\"content_block\" id=\"custom_post_widget-44827\"><p><!-- AD START --><\/p>\n<div id=\"pi-ad\">\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">Save 50% on an Annual Subscription.<\/div>\n<div id=\"pi-ad-content\">\n<div id=\"pi-ad-logo\" align=\"center\">\n<div><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/pan\/images\/patient-investor\/patient-investor-logo-2020-10-17.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<div>the patient investor<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Colin Twiggs\u2019 newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013 including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Save&nbsp;50% on a new annual subscription to Market Analysis (normal price: $195 AUD or $145 USD). <span style=\"\">This subscription may be tax deductible &#8211; ask your accountant.<\/span> <\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><span style=\"\"><span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">Offer valid until<\/span> midnight <span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">September 15, 2025<\/span>. <span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">New subscribers only.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- AD END --><\/p>\n<p><!--\nGeneral Ad:\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">This may be the best investment you make this year.<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-content\">\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-logo\" align=\"center\">\n\n\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/pan\/images\/patient-investor\/patient-investor-logo-2020-10-17.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div>the patient investor<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis\/\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Market Analysis newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013\u00a0including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Take advantage of our <u>$1 special<\/u>. New subscribers only. <\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\nBlackFriday2023:\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">Save $95\u00a0AUD (or $70 USD) on a Market Analysis subscription.<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-3\/\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Market Analysis newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013\u00a0including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Save on a new Market Analysis annual subscription. <span class=\"nowrap\">Offer extended until December 4, 2023<\/span>.<\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<span style=\"\">Take advantage of our exclusive <span style=\"text-decoration:underline;color:#215468;\">Black Friday special<\/span>: save\u00a0$95 ($70\u00a0USD) on a new subscription. <span class=\"nowrap\">Offer expires November 24, 2023<\/span>.<\/span>\n--><\/p>\n<\/div><!-- id=44827-->\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What economic path are the US and major allies likely to take over the next decade? Here is my take on how this is likely to pan out. First, let&#8217;s start with a template of what a healthy, growing economy looks like. A Virtuous Cycle Growth is dependent on two factors: Demographics &#8212; that is &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Long-term outlook: How does it all end?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,34],"tags":[966,6173,1527,1858,6175,2768,6174],"class_list":["post-45254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-debt-growth","tag-fiscal-deficits","tag-gdp-growth","tag-interest-rates","tag-malinvestment","tag-private-investment","tag-private-saving"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Long-term outlook: How does it all end? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Long-term outlook: How does it all end? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What economic path are the US and major allies likely to take over the next decade? 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Long-term outlook: How does it all end? - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Long-term outlook: How does it all end? - the patient investor","og_description":"What economic path are the US and major allies likely to take over the next decade? Here is my take on how this is likely to pan out. First, let&#8217;s start with a template of what a healthy, growing economy looks like. A Virtuous Cycle Growth is dependent on two factors: Demographics &#8212; that is &hellip; Continue reading \"Long-term outlook: How does it all end?\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2023-11-08T08:24:22+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-11-30T01:46:41+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Long-term outlook: How does it all end?","datePublished":"2023-11-08T08:24:22+00:00","dateModified":"2023-11-30T01:46:41+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/"},"wordCount":926,"commentCount":2,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png","keywords":["debt growth","Fiscal Deficits","GDP growth","interest rates","Malinvestment","Private Investment","Private Saving"],"articleSection":["UK &amp; Europe","US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/","name":"Long-term outlook: How does it all end? - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png","datePublished":"2023-11-08T08:24:22+00:00","dateModified":"2023-11-30T01:46:41+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Long-term outlook: How does it all end?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-bLU","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":14307,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":45254,"position":0},"title":"What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 11, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From John Fernald at the San Francisco Fed: Estimates suggest the new normal for U.S. GDP growth has dropped to between 1\u00bd and 1\u00be%, noticeably slower than the typical postwar pace. The slowdown stems mainly from demographics and educational attainment. As baby boomers retire, employment growth shrinks. And educational attainment\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6471,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/14\/labor-productivity-can-be-misleading\/","url_meta":{"origin":45254,"position":1},"title":"Labor productivity can be misleading","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 14, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"We are frequently bombarded with labor productivity statistics such as output per hour worked and unit labor costs -- normally accompanied by political hand-wringing exhorting us to improve productivity -- but how accurate are these statistics and what do they mean? First let's look at GDP per capita. This should\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48306,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/11\/low-growth-and-high-inflation-unless-there-is-a-productivity-miracle\/","url_meta":{"origin":45254,"position":2},"title":"Low growth and high inflation unless there is a productivity miracle","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 11, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent Adam Taggart interview with Steen Jakobsen, CIO of Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, where he breaks down the macro issues facing developed economies. https:\/\/youtu.be\/98UFbC8hDNQ The highlights for us are: GDP growth is a functional of two variables: demographics and productivity. Demographics are a headwind as birthrates fall and populations are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/98UFbC8hDNQ\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":14450,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/08\/gittins-forget-growth-aim-for-quality-of-life-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":45254,"position":3},"title":"Gittins: forget growth, aim for quality of life | Macrobusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 8, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"By Leith van Onselen Published with kind permission by Macrobusiness Fairfax\u2019s Ross Gittins has penned a good article questioning the economics profession\u2019s infatuation with growth and calling for policy makers to focus on quality and raising living standards instead: Most economists I know never doubt that a growing economy is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/55f7d-922926897.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/55f7d-922926897.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/55f7d-922926897.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/55f7d-922926897.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/55f7d-922926897.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8040,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/08\/rude-awakening-awaits-western-economies-wsj\/","url_meta":{"origin":45254,"position":4},"title":"Rude Awakening Awaits Western Economies | WSJ","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 8, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Michael J. Casey at WSJ interviews HSBC group chief economist Stephen King, author of When the Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence: Mr. King\u2019s thesis..... is that we in the West are in line for a shock when we discover that the high-growth rates to which we\u2019re accustomed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21375,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/02\/lt-trends-population-ageing\/","url_meta":{"origin":45254,"position":5},"title":"LT trends: Population Ageing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 2, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Part of our investment strategy is to identify long-term trends that are likely to shape future investment markets. We are currently conducting an assessment of how current developments may impact previously identified trends. This is the first in a series of updates covering major trends. Investment Strategy: LT trends Many\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Africa &amp; South America&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Africa &amp; South America","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/africa-south-america\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45254"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45254\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45858,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45254\/revisions\/45858"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}