{"id":45138,"date":"2023-11-04T02:54:07","date_gmt":"2023-11-04T02:54:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=45138"},"modified":"2023-11-30T01:46:50","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T01:46:50","slug":"dr-lacy-hunt-the-impending-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/04\/dr-lacy-hunt-the-impending-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Dr Lacy Hunt: The impending recession"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/bzBGXF0t02k?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Not the best interviewer but you always get your money&#8217;s worth from Dr Lacy Hunt, former chief economist at the Dallas Fed.<\/p>\n<p>The highlights:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Dr Hunt warns of a hard landing.<\/li>\n<li>Recent GDP gains are led by consumer spending (+4%) but real disposable income declined (-1%). Personal saving depressed at 3.4%, compared to the GFC low of 2.4%.<\/li>\n<li>UOM consumer sentiment is below level of previous recessions.<\/li>\n<li>A sharp surge in the economy often occurs just before recession.<\/li>\n<li>Dollar is too strong for global stability. It will fall as US goes into recession but then stabilize as the impact flows through to rest of the world.<\/li>\n<li>Three signs of weakness:\n<ul>\n<li>Negative net national saving has never occurred before in a period where GDP is rising (economy is weaker than we think).<\/li>\n<li>Bank credit is already contracting. This normally only occurs when the economy is already in recession.<\/li>\n<li>Inflation is likewise falling before the recession.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"content_block\" id=\"custom_post_widget-44827\"><p><!-- AD START --><\/p>\n<div id=\"pi-ad\">\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">Save 50% on an Annual Subscription.<\/div>\n<div id=\"pi-ad-content\">\n<div id=\"pi-ad-logo\" align=\"center\">\n<div><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/pan\/images\/patient-investor\/patient-investor-logo-2020-10-17.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<div>the patient investor<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Colin Twiggs\u2019 newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013 including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Save&nbsp;50% on a new annual subscription to Market Analysis (normal price: $195 AUD or $145 USD). <span style=\"\">This subscription may be tax deductible &#8211; ask your accountant.<\/span> <\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><span style=\"\"><span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">Offer valid until<\/span> midnight <span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">September 15, 2025<\/span>. <span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">New subscribers only.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- AD END --><\/p>\n<p><!--\nGeneral Ad:\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">This may be the best investment you make this year.<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-content\">\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-logo\" align=\"center\">\n\n\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/pan\/images\/patient-investor\/patient-investor-logo-2020-10-17.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div>the patient investor<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis\/\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Market Analysis newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013\u00a0including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Take advantage of our <u>$1 special<\/u>. New subscribers only. <\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\nBlackFriday2023:\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">Save $95\u00a0AUD (or $70 USD) on a Market Analysis subscription.<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-3\/\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Market Analysis newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013\u00a0including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Save on a new Market Analysis annual subscription. <span class=\"nowrap\">Offer extended until December 4, 2023<\/span>.<\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<span style=\"\">Take advantage of our exclusive <span style=\"text-decoration:underline;color:#215468;\">Black Friday special<\/span>: save\u00a0$95 ($70\u00a0USD) on a new subscription. <span class=\"nowrap\">Offer expires November 24, 2023<\/span>.<\/span>\n--><\/p>\n<\/div><!-- id=44827-->\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Not the best interviewer but you always get your money&#8217;s worth from Dr Lacy Hunt, former chief economist at the Dallas Fed. The highlights: Dr Hunt warns of a hard landing. Recent GDP gains are led by consumer spending (+4%) but real disposable income declined (-1%). Personal saving depressed at 3.4%, compared to the GFC &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/04\/dr-lacy-hunt-the-impending-recession\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Dr Lacy Hunt: The impending recession&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,13,34],"tags":[3795,798,5121,1185,1647,1828,6170,2880],"class_list":["post-45138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bank-credit","tag-consumer-sentiment","tag-dr-lacy-hunt","tag-economy-2","tag-hard-landing","tag-inflation","tag-negative-net-saving","tag-recession"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Dr Lacy Hunt: The impending recession - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dr Lacy Hunt: The impending recession - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Not the best interviewer but you always get your money&#8217;s worth from Dr Lacy Hunt, former chief economist at the Dallas Fed. The highlights: Dr Hunt warns of a hard landing. Recent GDP gains are led by consumer spending (+4%) but real disposable income declined (-1%). 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-bK2","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":43217,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/30\/soft-landing-or-no-landing\/","url_meta":{"origin":45138,"position":0},"title":"Soft landing or no landing?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 30, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 advance continues and a test of the January high at 4800 is now likely. Conflicting signals from our two most reliable indicators -- positive annual rate of change (below) and a negative 10-Year\/3-Month Treasury yield spread -- warn that these are exceptional times. The Russell 2000 Small\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-28-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30600,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/01\/25\/dr-lacey-hunt-hoisington-asset-management-the-debt-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":45138,"position":1},"title":"Dr Lacy Hunt, Hoisington Investment Management | The debt trap","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 25, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"From Dr Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Investment Management on the declining velocity of money: The Fed is able to increase money supply growth but the ongoing decline in velocity (V) means that the new liquidity is trapped in the financial markets rather than advancing the standard of living by moving\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"M2 Velocity","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-28-m2-velocity.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-28-m2-velocity.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-28-m2-velocity.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-28-m2-velocity.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":25446,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/24\/a-case-for-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":45138,"position":2},"title":"A case for inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 24, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Dr Lacy Hunt from Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas is one of the most highly respected market commentators but I find we have diametrically opposing views on the inflation outlook. Dr Hunt begins his current quarterly bulletin with the statement: \"Contrary to the conventional wisdom, disinflation is more\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36266,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/09\/australia-consumer-sentiment-low-but-spending-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":45138,"position":3},"title":"Australia | Consumer sentiment low but spending high","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Westpac Melbourne Institute of Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 3% from 83.8 in July to 81.2 in August. This reading is on a par with the lows of the COVID and Global Financial Crisis although still well above the lows during the late 80\u2019s early 90\u2019s recession. (Elliot Clarke,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-09-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":27803,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/09\/09\/low-interest-rates-and-the-debt-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":45138,"position":4},"title":"Low interest rates and the debt trap","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 9, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Since 1980, debt levels have more than doubled, from 1.4 times GDP to more than 2.8 in Q1 this year. The rise has been facilitated (and encouraged) by a sharp fall in long-term interest rates, with 10-year Treasury yields falling from a peak of close to 16% in September 1981\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":45147,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/04\/us-job-growth-falls-unemployment-close-to-recession-warning\/","url_meta":{"origin":45138,"position":5},"title":"US job growth falls, unemployment close to recession warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 4, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Jobs growth dipped to a seasonally adjusted 150,000, according to the BLS Labor Report, suggesting that economic growth is slowing. Unemployment lifted to 6.5 million, but still well below job openings at 9.5 million, indicating a tight labor market. The unemployment rate lifted to 3.9%, 50 basis points above recent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Jobs Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-03-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-03-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-03-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45138"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45138\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45859,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45138\/revisions\/45859"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}