{"id":45057,"date":"2023-10-31T05:11:46","date_gmt":"2023-10-31T05:11:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=45057"},"modified":"2023-11-30T01:52:08","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T01:52:08","slug":"stan-druckenmillers-macro-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/31\/stan-druckenmillers-macro-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Stan Druckenmiller&#8217;s macro outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/dmrrt7aCXhY?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;start=25&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;&#8230;.We need to make an adjustment fundamentally and price wise. And if you look at the market, in the non-QE world, free world, 15 times earnings was about right. We&#8217;re at 20 times earnings. I don&#8217;t know what we&#8217;re doing 20 times earnings. It&#8217;s hard for me to get excited about the long side of the overall market with the market, say, 20% above its normal valuation. When you have a federal fiscal recklessness problem, you have supply chain problems, you have the worst geopolitical situation I&#8217;ve seen in my lifetime.<\/p>\n<p>&#8217;78, &#8217;79 was bad. But I mean, for the first time, it&#8217;s a very low probability, but you gotta put the potential outcome of World War on the table. Not exactly an environment that excites me about paying 20 to 30%, above the multiple for equity prices. The next six months, who knows? And we&#8217;re certainly washed out to some extent.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4>Acknowledgements<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NeckarValue\/status\/1719003346722345305\">Frederik Gieschen<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"content_block\" id=\"custom_post_widget-44827\"><p><!-- AD START --><\/p>\n<div id=\"pi-ad\">\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">Save 50% on an Annual Subscription.<\/div>\n<div id=\"pi-ad-content\">\n<div id=\"pi-ad-logo\" align=\"center\">\n<div><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/pan\/images\/patient-investor\/patient-investor-logo-2020-10-17.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<div>the patient investor<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Colin Twiggs\u2019 newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013 including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Save&nbsp;50% on a new annual subscription to Market Analysis (normal price: $195 AUD or $145 USD). <span style=\"\">This subscription may be tax deductible &#8211; ask your accountant.<\/span> <\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><span style=\"\"><span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">Offer valid until<\/span> midnight <span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">September 15, 2025<\/span>. <span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">New subscribers only.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- AD END --><\/p>\n<p><!--\nGeneral Ad:\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">This may be the best investment you make this year.<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-content\">\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-logo\" align=\"center\">\n\n\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/pan\/images\/patient-investor\/patient-investor-logo-2020-10-17.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div>the patient investor<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis\/\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Market Analysis newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013\u00a0including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Take advantage of our <u>$1 special<\/u>. New subscribers only. <\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\nBlackFriday2023:\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">Save $95\u00a0AUD (or $70 USD) on a Market Analysis subscription.<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-3\/\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Market Analysis newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013\u00a0including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Save on a new Market Analysis annual subscription. <span class=\"nowrap\">Offer extended until December 4, 2023<\/span>.<\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<span style=\"\">Take advantage of our exclusive <span style=\"text-decoration:underline;color:#215468;\">Black Friday special<\/span>: save\u00a0$95 ($70\u00a0USD) on a new subscription. <span class=\"nowrap\">Offer expires November 24, 2023<\/span>.<\/span>\n--><\/p>\n<\/div><!-- id=44827-->\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;&#8230;.We need to make an adjustment fundamentally and price wise. And if you look at the market, in the non-QE world, free world, 15 times earnings was about right. We&#8217;re at 20 times earnings. I don&#8217;t know what we&#8217;re doing 20 times earnings. It&#8217;s hard for me to get excited about the long side of &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/31\/stan-druckenmillers-macro-outlook\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Stan Druckenmiller&#8217;s macro outlook&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,45,3761,13,34],"tags":[3868,5246],"class_list":["post-45057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-levels","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-price-earnings","tag-stan-druckenmiller"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stan Druckenmiller&#039;s macro outlook - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stan Druckenmiller&#039;s macro outlook - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&#8220;&#8230;.We need to make an adjustment fundamentally and price wise. And if you look at the market, in the non-QE world, free world, 15 times earnings was about right. We&#8217;re at 20 times earnings. I don&#8217;t know what we&#8217;re doing 20 times earnings. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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CAPE uses a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings in order to smooth out fluctuations in earnings. The current reading of 29.2 is almost double the low during the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Stock Market Capitalization\/GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-12-mcap-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-12-mcap-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-12-mcap-gdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31638,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/23\/the-stock-market-mania\/","url_meta":{"origin":45057,"position":1},"title":"The stock market mania","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 23, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Stan Druckenmiller says that the bull market reminds him of the Dotcom boom, but he cautioned that asset prices could continue rising for a while: \"I have no doubt that we are in a raging mania in all assets.\" Jeremy Grantham describes the market as \"a fully fledged epic bubble\":\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Market Cap\/Corporate Profits After Tax","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-22-mktcap-npat.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-22-mktcap-npat.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-22-mktcap-npat.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-22-mktcap-npat.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61014,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/17\/asx-weekly-market-snapshot\/","url_meta":{"origin":45057,"position":2},"title":"ASX Weekly Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 17, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 64%, with two of five leading indicators signaling Risk-off, while the US leading index remains at 60%: This was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-14-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-14-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-14-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15282,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/sp-500-price-earnings-ratio-rises\/","url_meta":{"origin":45057,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 Price-Earnings Ratio rises","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 14, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"With 84.4% of S&P 500 index constituents having reported first-quarter earnings, 302 (73.84%) beat their earnings estimates while 77 (18.83%) missed. Forward estimates for 2017 contracted by an average of 4.6% over the last 12 months but not sufficient to raise the forward Price-Earnings Ratio above 20. That is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63683,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/21\/us-market-snapshot-12\/","url_meta":{"origin":45057,"position":4},"title":"US Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 21, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, and the indicator on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17854,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/price-earnings-versus-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":45057,"position":5},"title":"Price-Earnings versus Growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"A comment at lunch today about high price-earnings multiples got me started on one of my favorite topics: investment returns. Most of us use the basic price-earnings ratio (PE or P\/E) as a rough measure of how highly priced a stock is. The higher the P\/E, the higher the risk.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45057"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45057\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45866,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45057\/revisions\/45866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}