{"id":44972,"date":"2023-10-27T06:16:03","date_gmt":"2023-10-27T06:16:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=44972"},"modified":"2023-11-30T01:53:40","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T01:53:40","slug":"rising-long-term-rates-could-spoil-the-party","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/27\/rising-long-term-rates-could-spoil-the-party\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising long-term rates could spoil the party"},"content":{"rendered":"

Real GDP for the September quarter reflects an annual growth rate of 2.9% for the US, well below the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 5.4%. Growth in weekly hours worked declined to 1.5% for the 12 months ended September, indicating that GDP is likely to slow further in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

New Orders<\/h2>\n

Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods, adjusted for inflation, shows signs of strengthening.<\/p>\n

\"Manufacturers'<\/p>\n

Transport<\/h2>\n

Transport indicators show a long-term down-trend but truck tonnage has grown since May 2023.<\/p>\n

\"Truck<\/p>\n

Container (intermodal) rail freight likewise grew for several months but then turned down in August..<\/p>\n

\"Rail<\/p>\n

Growth in weekly payrolls of transport and warehousing employees slowed to an annual rate of 3.6% in September but remains positive.<\/p>\n

\"Transport<\/p>\n

Consumer Cyclical<\/h2>\n

Light vehicle sales continue to trend higher, suggesting consumer confidence.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

Housing<\/h2>\n

New housing starts (purple) have been trending lower since their peak in 2022 but new permits (green) are now strengthening.<\/p>\n

\"Housing<\/p>\n

New single family houses sold are trending higher.<\/p>\n

\"New<\/p>\n

Despite a steep rise in mortgage rates. In a strange twist, higher rates have reduced the turnover of existing homes on the market, with owners reluctant to give up their low fixed rate mortgages. Low supply of existing homes has boosted sales of new homes, lifting employment in residential construction.<\/p>\n

\"30-Year<\/p>\n

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index (HMI), however, reflects falling sentiment — likely to be followed by declining new home sales and housing starts.<\/p>\n

\"NAHB\/Wells<\/p>\n

HMI is a weighted average of three separate component indices. A monthly survey of NAHB members asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time; sales in the next six months; and the traffic of prospective buyers. (NAHB<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Financial Markets<\/h2>\n

The ratio of bank loans and leases to GDP declined to 0.44 in the third quarter but remains elevated compared to levels prior to 2000.<\/p>\n

\"Bank<\/p>\n

The cause of ballooning debt is not hard to find, with negative real interest rates for large parts of the past two decades.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

Now real rates are again positive and money supply is contracting relative to GDP, the days of easy credit are at an end. A significant contraction of credit is likely unless the Fed intervenes, either by cutting rates or expanding its balance sheet to inject more liquidity into the system.<\/p>\n

\"M2<\/p>\n

Commercial banks continued to raise lending standards in Q3, making credit less accessible.<\/p>\n

\"Bank<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

This is not a normal market cycle and investors need to be prepared for sudden shifts in financial markets.<\/p>\n

The US economy is slowing but cyclical elements like light vehicle sales and new home sales are holding up well.<\/p>\n

The rise in long-term Treasury yields, however, is likely to cause a sharp credit contraction if the Fed does not intervene by cutting rates or expanding its balance sheet (QE).<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The Fed is reluctant to intervene because this would undermine their efforts to curb inflation. But they may be forced to if there is a credit event that unsettles financial markets.<\/p>\n

\"Moody's<\/p>\n

Fed intervention is unlikely without a steep rise in credit spreads. But would be especially bullish for Gold.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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Colin Twiggs\u2019 newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013 including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span>Save 50% on a new annual subscription to Market Analysis (normal price: $195 AUD or $145 USD). This subscription may be tax deductible – ask your accountant.<\/span> <\/span>Save Now ><\/span>Offer valid until<\/span> midnight September 15, 2025<\/span>. New subscribers only.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Real GDP for the September quarter reflects an annual growth rate of 2.9% for the US, well below the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 5.4%. Growth in weekly hours worked declined to 1.5% for the 12 months ended September, indicating that GDP is likely to slow further in the fourth quarter. New Orders Manufacturers’ new … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Rising long-term rates could spoil the party”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,45,3761,10,34],"tags":[4674,6118,5469,5372,2109,5814,6158,6091,6160,5866,6021,6022,5368,2870,6013,6159,6145],"class_list":["post-44972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-levels","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10_year-treasury-yields","tag-30-year-mortgage-rate","tag-bank-loans-leases","tag-gdpnow","tag-light-vehicle-sales","tag-m2-money-supply-gdp","tag-manufacturers-new-orders-durable-goods","tag-moodys-baa-corporate-bond-spreads","tag-nahb-wells-fargo-housing-market-index","tag-new-home-sales","tag-new-housing-starts-permits","tag-rail-freight","tag-real-fed-funds-rate","tag-real-gdp","tag-total-weekly-hours","tag-transport-warehousing-weekly-payrolls","tag-truck-tonnage"],"yoast_head":"\nRising long-term rates could spoil the party - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rising long-term rates could spoil the party - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Real GDP for the September quarter reflects an annual growth rate of 2.9% for the US, well below the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 5.4%. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-bHm","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":40182,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/09\/stocks-rally-on-strong-jobs-report\/","url_meta":{"origin":44972,"position":0},"title":"Stocks rally on strong jobs report","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 9, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rallied Friday on the back of a strong jobs report. The primary trend is downward and 1-year Rate of Change remains negative but another test of the descending trendline would be a bullish sign. Average hourly earnings 12-month growth declined to around 5.0%, suggesting that inflationary pressures\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-09-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-09-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-09-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43480,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/17\/the-elephant-in-the-room\/","url_meta":{"origin":44972,"position":1},"title":"The Elephant in the Room","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 17, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-Year Treasury yield broke through resistance at 4.25%, signaling a fresh advance. Target for the advance is 5.25% (4.25% plus 1.0%) but first expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect would confirm the breakout. The Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF broke support at 190, warning of a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":32570,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/09\/us-labor-market-recovering-but-beware-high-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":44972,"position":2},"title":"US labor market recovering but beware of high interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 and Q2 are weak, at annualized rates of 0.37% and 2.16% respectively. But our real GDP estimates, based on weekly hours worked, show an April recovery to 3.46% (annualized) after an erratic first quarter that averaged 2.24%. That is in line with 3.5% in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"GDPNow","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31382,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/07\/us-payrolls-rise-but-oil-and-gas-warn-of-slowing-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":44972,"position":3},"title":"US payrolls rise but oil and gas warn of slowing growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 7, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Total US non-farm payrolls grew by 678K in February and are now only 2.1 million behind their peak from early 2020 Month-on-month increases in average hourly earnings dropped to 0.30%, but February is normally a quiet month, with a similar (0.32%) increase in 2020. High annual hourly wages growth, at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Non-Farm Payroll","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-04-payroll.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-04-payroll.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-04-payroll.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-04-payroll.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41763,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/24\/little-hope-of-avoiding-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":44972,"position":4},"title":"Little HOPE of avoiding recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 24, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This interview with Michael Kantrowitz is the most thorough exposition we have seen of the leads and lags in various sectors of the economy that precede a recession. https:\/\/youtu.be\/IWg-9VKxTw4 There is so much confusing data, so Michael focuses on the four most consistent triggers of recessions and recoveries. He calls\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"HOPE System","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-24-kantro1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-24-kantro1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-24-kantro1.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-24-kantro1.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44740,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/18\/strong-us-retail-activity-unlikely-to-last\/","url_meta":{"origin":44972,"position":5},"title":"Strong US retail activity unlikely to last","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 18, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Real retail sales remain strong, holding above the pre-pandemic trend (dotted line) in September. Supported by a strong jobs market, with low unemployment. The labor market remains tight, with employers holding on to staff -- cutting weekly hours rather than resorting to layoffs. The consumer sentiment trough in June 2022\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-18-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-18-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-18-realretail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44972"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44972\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45864,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44972\/revisions\/45864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}