{"id":44937,"date":"2023-10-26T01:27:20","date_gmt":"2023-10-26T01:27:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=44937"},"modified":"2023-11-30T01:53:59","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T01:53:59","slug":"westpac-calls-a-rate-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/26\/westpac-calls-a-rate-hike\/","title":{"rendered":"Westpac and CBA call a rate hike"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Luci Ellis, new Chief Economist at Westpac, believes the <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/25\/australian-cpi-bounce-could-spur-another-rate-hike\/\">inflation overshoot in September<\/a> was enough to expect an RBA rate hike:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Last week we noted that the RBA would leave rates unchanged so long as they saw inflation coming down as they had expected. But if the data flow showed inflation declining slower than that, they would raise rates. This message was reinforced in the Governor\u2019s first speech, on Tuesday, where she said \u201cThe Board will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation.\u201d The September quarter CPI release was always going to be crucial.<\/p>\n<p>Has the RBA seen enough to move? At 1.2% in the quarter, both headline and trimmed mean inflation was a little higher than the Westpac team expected (see Westpac Senior Economist Justin Smirk\u2019s note). We assessed that it would take a significant upside surprise to induce the RBA Board to raise rates at the November meeting. A 0.1% difference might not seem like a lot, but the underlying detail was sobering.<\/p>\n<p>So yes, I\u2019ve seen enough to make my first-ever rate call to be a prediction of a hike. (<a href=\"https:\/\/library.westpaciq.com.au\/content\/dam\/public\/westpaciq\/secure\/economics\/documents\/aus\/2023\/10\/er20231026BullRBAsNextMove.pdf\">Westpac<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Gareth Aird and Stephen Wu at CBA expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25bp (to 4.35%) on Melbourne Cup day:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The RBA has a hiking bias. And on Tuesday night, RBA Governor Bullock stated, \u201cthe Board will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>We are not sure what constitutes a \u2018material upward revision\u2019 to the RBA\u2019s inflation forecasts. But we consider the lift in underlying inflation over Q3 23 to be sufficiently strong for the RBA to act on their hiking bias at the upcoming Board meeting. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.commbankresearch.com.au\/s\/desks\">Commbank Research<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"content_block\" id=\"custom_post_widget-44827\"><p><!-- AD START --><\/p>\n<div id=\"pi-ad\">\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">Save 50% on an Annual Subscription.<\/div>\n<div id=\"pi-ad-content\">\n<div id=\"pi-ad-logo\" align=\"center\">\n<div><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/pan\/images\/patient-investor\/patient-investor-logo-2020-10-17.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<div>the patient investor<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Colin Twiggs\u2019 newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013 including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Save&nbsp;50% on a new annual subscription to Market Analysis (normal price: $195 AUD or $145 USD). <span style=\"\">This subscription may be tax deductible &#8211; ask your accountant.<\/span> <\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><span style=\"\"><span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">Offer valid until<\/span> midnight <span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">September 15, 2025<\/span>. <span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">New subscribers only.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- AD END --><\/p>\n<p><!--\nGeneral Ad:\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">This may be the best investment you make this year.<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-content\">\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-logo\" align=\"center\">\n\n\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/pan\/images\/patient-investor\/patient-investor-logo-2020-10-17.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div>the patient investor<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis\/\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Market Analysis newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013\u00a0including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Take advantage of our <u>$1 special<\/u>. New subscribers only. <\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\nBlackFriday2023:\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">Save $95\u00a0AUD (or $70 USD) on a Market Analysis subscription.<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-3\/\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Market Analysis newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013\u00a0including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Save on a new Market Analysis annual subscription. <span class=\"nowrap\">Offer extended until December 4, 2023<\/span>.<\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<span style=\"\">Take advantage of our exclusive <span style=\"text-decoration:underline;color:#215468;\">Black Friday special<\/span>: save\u00a0$95 ($70\u00a0USD) on a new subscription. <span class=\"nowrap\">Offer expires November 24, 2023<\/span>.<\/span>\n--><\/p>\n<\/div><!-- id=44827-->\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Luci Ellis, new Chief Economist at Westpac, believes the inflation overshoot in September was enough to expect an RBA rate hike: Last week we noted that the RBA would leave rates unchanged so long as they saw inflation coming down as they had expected. But if the data flow showed inflation declining slower than that, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/26\/westpac-calls-a-rate-hike\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Westpac and CBA call a rate hike&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,13],"tags":[854,2854,2860,3667],"class_list":["post-44937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-inflation-economy","tag-cpi","tag-rate-hike","tag-rba","tag-westpac"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Westpac and CBA call a rate hike - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Westpac and CBA call a rate hike - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Luci Ellis, new Chief Economist at Westpac, believes the inflation overshoot in September was enough to expect an RBA rate hike: Last week we noted that the RBA would leave rates unchanged so long as they saw inflation coming down as they had expected. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Faced by the triple threat of rising inflation, rising interest rates and soaring\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Westpac Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-08-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-08-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-08-aus-sentiment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1572,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/25\/cpi-now-moves-balance-of-probabilities-for-next-rate-cut-from-december-to-november-westpac\/","url_meta":{"origin":44937,"position":1},"title":"CPI now moves balance of probabilities for next rate cut from December to November &#8211; Westpac","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 25, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"In the August Statement on Monetary Policy the Bank [RBA], relying on two recent prints of 0.9%qtr for underlying inflation, forecast that annual core inflation would print 3.25% in both 2011 and 2012. We are now confronted with the reality that annual core inflation for the year to September 2011\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38388,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/29\/australia-inflation-the-rba-cash-rate\/","url_meta":{"origin":44937,"position":2},"title":"Australia: Inflation &#038; the RBA cash rate","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 29, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index grew at 7.3% for the 12 months to September, highlighting that Australia is not immune from the high inflation that has beset global economies. Bill Evans (Westpac) calls for a 50 basis point hike at the RBA's November 1st meeting: \"During this period of rising inflation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":35919,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/27\/australia-q2-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":44937,"position":3},"title":"Australia Q2 CPI and the cash rate","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The CPI gained 1.8% in the June quarter splitting the difference between the market median of 1.9% and Westpac\u2019s forecast of 1.7%. .....This increase was the second highest since the introduction of the GST and follows on from a 2.1% increase in the March quarter. The annual pace lifted from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI: Discretionary & Non-Discretionary","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36266,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/09\/australia-consumer-sentiment-low-but-spending-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":44937,"position":4},"title":"Australia | Consumer sentiment low but spending high","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Westpac Melbourne Institute of Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 3% from 83.8 in July to 81.2 in August. This reading is on a par with the lows of the COVID and Global Financial Crisis although still well above the lows during the late 80\u2019s early 90\u2019s recession. (Elliot Clarke,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-09-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":32710,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/11\/australia-consumer-sentiment-and-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":44937,"position":5},"title":"Australia: Consumer sentiment and inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 11, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 5.6% to 90.4 in May. Readings below 90 normally only occur during major economic contractions like the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Bill Evans from Westpac: Two stunning developments are clearly unnerving consumers. Firstly, on April\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-10-aus-sentiment2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-10-aus-sentiment2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-10-aus-sentiment2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44937"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44937\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45865,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44937\/revisions\/45865"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}