{"id":44740,"date":"2023-10-18T08:37:25","date_gmt":"2023-10-18T08:37:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=44740"},"modified":"2023-11-30T01:55:39","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T01:55:39","slug":"strong-us-retail-activity-unlikely-to-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/18\/strong-us-retail-activity-unlikely-to-last\/","title":{"rendered":"Strong US retail activity unlikely to last"},"content":{"rendered":"

Real retail sales remain strong, holding above the pre-pandemic trend (dotted line) in September.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

Supported by a strong jobs market, with low unemployment.<\/p>\n

\"Unemployment<\/p>\n

The labor market remains tight, with employers holding on to staff — cutting weekly hours rather than resorting to layoffs.<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

The consumer sentiment trough in June 2022 coincided with a peak in gasoline prices. Sentiment has been rising over the past 12 months but this could be derailed by a spike in gas prices.<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

The up-trend in light vehicle sales reflects growing consumer confidence.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index (blue below) is falling sharply, however, warning that the recent recovery in new building permits (red) is about to reverse. Residential housing is a major cyclical employer and a collapse of building activity would warn that recession is imminent.<\/p>\n

\"NAHB<\/p>\n

Industry & Transport<\/h2>\n

Industry indicators show gradually slowing activity but no alarming signs yet. CSBS Community Bank Sentiment index indicates slightly improved business conditions in Q3.<\/p>\n

\"CSBS<\/p>\n

Investment in heavy trucks — a useful leading indicator — remains strong.<\/p>\n

\"Heavy<\/p>\n

Intermodal rail freight traffic — mainly containers — declined in August after a four-month rally. But the longer-term trend is down.<\/p>\n

\"Rail<\/p>\n

Truck tonnage increased in August for the fifth month but earlier breach of the long-term up-trend (green) warns of weakness ahead.<\/p>\n

\"Truck<\/p>\n

Manufacturers new orders for capital goods, adjusted by PPI, indicates declining activity which is likely to weigh on future growth.<\/p>\n

\"Manufacturing<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The tight labor market supports strong consumer spending but high mortgage rates are likely to slow homebuilding activity causing a rise in cyclical employment. A sharp increase in crude oil could also cause higher gasoline prices which would damage consumer sentiment.<\/p>\n

Industry and transport activity is gradually weakening but has not yet caused alarm.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cHow did you go bankrupt?\u201d Bill asked.<\/p>\n

\u201cTwo ways,\u201d Mike said. \u201cGradually, then suddenly.\u201d<\/p>\n

~ Ernest Hemingway: The Sun Also Rises<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
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Colin Twiggs\u2019 newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013 including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span>Save 50% on a new annual subscription to Market Analysis (normal price: $195 AUD or $145 USD). This subscription may be tax deductible – ask your accountant.<\/span> <\/span>Save Now ><\/span>Offer valid until<\/span> midnight September 15, 2025<\/span>. New subscribers only.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Real retail sales remain strong, holding above the pre-pandemic trend (dotted line) in September. Supported by a strong jobs market, with low unemployment. The labor market remains tight, with employers holding on to staff — cutting weekly hours rather than resorting to layoffs. The consumer sentiment trough in June 2022 coincided with a peak in … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Strong US retail activity unlikely to last”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,10,34],"tags":[321,4079,6142,1518,5662,1746,2109,6143,6141,6022,5477,6144,6145,3534,5068],"class_list":["post-44740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-weekly-hours-worked","tag-building-permits","tag-csbs-community-banks-index-business-sentiment","tag-gasoline-prices","tag-heavy-truck-sales","tag-housing-starts","tag-light-vehicle-sales","tag-manufacturing-orders-capital-goods","tag-nahb-sentiment-index","tag-rail-freight","tag-real-retail-sales","tag-transport-warehousing-payrolls","tag-truck-tonnage","tag-unemployment-rate","tag-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment"],"yoast_head":"\nStrong US retail activity unlikely to last - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Strong US retail activity unlikely to last - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Real retail sales remain strong, holding above the pre-pandemic trend (dotted line) in September. 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The Coincident Index refuses\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Initial Claims","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-08-initialclaims.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-08-initialclaims.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-08-initialclaims.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43094,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/19\/us-consumers-spend-while-economy-slows\/","url_meta":{"origin":44740,"position":1},"title":"US consumers spend while economy slows","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 19, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Real retail sales show no growth over the past two years but remain above their pre-pandemic trend (dotted line below). Continued claims for unemployment are declining. Real disposable personal income is growing, further enhanced by cost-of-living adjustments to social welfare. The blue line below includes transfer receipts from government welfare\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-18-real-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-18-real-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-18-real-retail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50117,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/18\/us-gasoline-prices-consumer-sentiment\/","url_meta":{"origin":44740,"position":2},"title":"US gasoline prices & consumer sentiment","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 18, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"There is a historic link between US gasoline prices and consumer sentiment. The March University of Michigan survey shows consumer sentiment is rising, with the 3-month average at 77.5. Roughly mid-way between peaks and troughs over the past sixty years. But real retail sales also dipped below their long-term trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43753,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/31\/job-openings-fall-but-some-sectors-still-booming\/","url_meta":{"origin":44740,"position":3},"title":"Job openings fall but some sectors still booming","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 31, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Job openings declined to 8.8 million, narrowing the gap to near-record-low unemployment at 5.8 million. The labor market remains tight but the fall indicates that the economy is slowing. Declining quit rates tell a similar story: pressure is easing but the current high level indicates there is more to go\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Job Openings & Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-29-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-29-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-29-jolts-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35680,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/12\/australia-consumer-sentiment-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":44740,"position":4},"title":"Australia: Expect more rate hikes despite falling sentiment","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 12, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 3.0% to 83.8 in July, from 86.4 in June. The index is approaching levels only seen during the 2008 global financial crisis and 2020 COVID pandemic. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index similarly recorded a 3.7% drop in the past two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-12-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-12-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-12-aus-sentiment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19018,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/03\/the-cost-of-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":44740,"position":5},"title":"The high cost of uncertainty","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 3, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"High levels of uncertainty in international trade, geopolitical outlook, and domestic politics in the USA are likely to have a domino effect on business and consumer confidence. Business is likely to postpone or curtail new investment decisions. This is already evident in a down-turn in new capital formation, along with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44740"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45871,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44740\/revisions\/45871"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}