{"id":4395,"date":"2012-05-19T04:02:52","date_gmt":"2012-05-19T08:02:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=4395"},"modified":"2012-05-19T04:02:52","modified_gmt":"2012-05-19T08:02:52","slug":"economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/","title":{"rendered":"EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb Europe\u2019s Depressing Prospects: Two Reasons Why Spain Will Leave the Euro"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Michael Pettis<\/strong>: I think Spain [and all the peripheral European countries are similarly uncompetitive] will leave the euro because it seems to me that the country has already started on the self-reinforcing downward spiral that leads to a crisis, and there is no one big enough to reverse the spiral.<\/p>\n<p>How does this process work? It turns out that it is pretty straightforward, and occurs during every one of the sovereign financial crises we have seen in modern history. When a sufficient level of doubt arises about sovereign credibility, all the major economic stakeholders in that country begin to change their behavior in ways that exacerbate the problem of credibility.<\/p>\n<p>Of course as credibility is eroded, this further exacerbates the behavior of these stakeholders. In that case bankruptcy comes, as Hemingway is reported to have said, at first slowly, and then all of a sudden, as the country moves slowly at first and then rapidly towards a breakdown in its debt capacity.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economonitor.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/\">EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb Europe\u2019s Depressing Prospects: Two Reasons Why Spain Will Leave the Euro<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Michael Pettis: I think Spain [and all the peripheral European countries are similarly uncompetitive] will leave the euro because it seems to me that the country has already started on the self-reinforcing downward spiral that leads to a crisis, and there is no one big enough to reverse the spiral. How does this process work? &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb Europe\u2019s Depressing Prospects: Two Reasons Why Spain Will Leave the Euro&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[962,1295,3075,3194],"class_list":["post-4395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","tag-debt-crisis","tag-euro-zone","tag-self-reinforcing-behavior","tag-spain"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb Europe\u2019s Depressing Prospects: Two Reasons Why Spain Will Leave the Euro - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb Europe\u2019s Depressing Prospects: Two Reasons Why Spain Will Leave the Euro - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Michael Pettis: I think Spain [and all the peripheral European countries are similarly uncompetitive] will leave the euro because it seems to me that the country has already started on the self-reinforcing downward spiral that leads to a crisis, and there is no one big enough to reverse the spiral. How does this process work? &hellip; Continue reading &quot;EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb Europe\u2019s Depressing Prospects: Two Reasons Why Spain Will Leave the Euro&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-05-19T08:02:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb Europe\u2019s Depressing Prospects: Two Reasons Why Spain Will Leave the Euro\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-05-19T08:02:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/\"},\"wordCount\":191,\"commentCount\":2,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"debt crisis\",\"euro-zone\",\"self-reinforcing behavior\",\"Spain\"],\"articleSection\":[\"UK &amp; Europe\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/\",\"name\":\"EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb Europe\u2019s Depressing Prospects: Two Reasons Why Spain Will Leave the Euro - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-05-19T08:02:52+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/19\/economonitor-economonitor-europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb Europe\u2019s Depressing Prospects: Two Reasons Why Spain Will Leave the Euro\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-18T","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1905,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/15\/economonitor-economonitor-the-triumph-of-austerity-and-its-consequences\/","url_meta":{"origin":4395,"position":0},"title":"EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb The Triumph of Austerity (and its Consequences)","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 15, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"FT reports: The president of Germany\u2019s powerful Bundesbank has firmly rebuffed international demands for decisive intervention in the bond markets by the European Central Bank to combat the eurozone debt crisis, warning that such steps would add to instability by violating European law. Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann told the Financial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6781,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/24\/bernard-connolly-why-the-euro-crisis-isnt-over-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":4395,"position":1},"title":"Bernard Connolly: Why the Euro Crisis Isn&#039;t Over &#124; WSJ.com","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 24, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"From Brian Carney's weekend interview with Bernard Connolly: ...But even if the Greeks were undisciplined, he says, \"both the sovereign-debt crisis and the banking crisis are symptoms, not causes. And the underlying problem has been that there was a massive bubble generated in the world as a whole by monetary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2232,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/20\/debt-crisis-contagion-the-euro-zones-deadly-domino-effect-spiegel-online-news-international\/","url_meta":{"origin":4395,"position":2},"title":"Debt Crisis Contagion: The Euro Zone&#8217;s Deadly Domino Effect &#8211; SPIEGEL ONLINE &#8211; News &#8211; International","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 20, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The main problem of a Greek exit from the euro zone is not necessarily the direct impact on banks. I believe our government when they say that they would be able to get that under control. The real problem is the next domino. The crisis will spread unchecked to Italy.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4940,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/25\/benoit-coeure-short-term-crisis-management-and-long-term-vision-how-europe-responds-to-the-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":4395,"position":3},"title":"Beno\u00eet C\u0153ur\u00e9: Short-term crisis management and long-term vision &#8211; how Europe responds to the crisis","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 25, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting to get a view from within the ECB as to the state of the euro-zone crisis. Beno\u00eet Coeur\u00e9, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank: On 29 June, the Euro Summit took a further series of steps to strengthen crisis management. They agreed that loans to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3659,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/02\/29\/economonitor-note-from-athens-feeling-on-the-ground-has-palpably-changed\/","url_meta":{"origin":4395,"position":4},"title":"EconoMonitor : Note from Athens: Feeling on the Ground Has Palpably Changed","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 29, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite the clear sense of despair and anger in Greece, politicians and members of the public continue to think that the alternative\u2014default and EZ exit\u2014would be even worse. ......Among the increasingly popular fringe left- and right-wing parties, the only party actually advocating a EZ exit is the communist party, or\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5024,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/01\/spain-capital-outflows-reach-record-levels-in-euro-crisis-spiegel-online\/","url_meta":{"origin":4395,"position":5},"title":"Spain Capital Outflows Reach Record Levels in Euro Crisis &#8211; SPIEGEL ONLINE","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"In the first five months of 2012, a total of \u20ac163 billion left the country, the figures [from the country's\u00a0central bank] indicate. During the same period a year earlier, Spain recorded a net inflow of \u20ac14.6 billion. The outflow has resulted from domestic banks sending money abroad, foreign lenders pulling\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4395","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4395"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4395\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4395"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4395"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}