{"id":42723,"date":"2023-06-24T07:08:23","date_gmt":"2023-06-24T07:08:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=42723"},"modified":"2023-06-24T07:58:02","modified_gmt":"2023-06-24T07:58:02","slug":"russia-putin-in-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/24\/russia-putin-in-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia | Putin in Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From <a href=\"https:\/\/link.foreignaffairs.com\/view\/5f34191541aefd4f2a0c203aizhhf.353y\/0e5d6260\">Foreign Affairs, June 24th<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>On Friday night, political infighting in Moscow spilled out into the open, with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia\u2019s Wagner mercenary group, accusing the Russian military of attacking his forces and vowing to retaliate. In messages published on his official Telegram channel, Prigozhin also claimed that all of the Kremlin\u2019s publicly stated reasons for launching the war in Ukraine were lies. Following these developments, Russia\u2019s state security agency, the FSB, opened a criminal case against Prigozhin, accusing him of calling for an armed rebellion&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-23-rutv.png?resize=525%2C502&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Russian TV\" width=\"525\" height=\"502\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Prigozhin has seized control of Rostov-on-Don, the major logistical hub for the war in Ukraine, with vast stockpiles of munitions and supplies. He now has complete control of Russia&#8217;s ability to continue the war in Ukraine, giving him a strong negotiating position to settle his dispute with the Kremlin.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-23-rod.png?resize=525%2C609&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Rostov-on-Don\" width=\"525\" height=\"609\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-23-igor.png?resize=525%2C435&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Rostov-on-Don Interview\" width=\"525\" height=\"435\" \/><\/p>\n<p><s>At this stage, an advance on Moscow seems unlikely.<\/s><\/p>\n<p>It is dangerous to predict how events will unfold. Already the window for negotiations is closing.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-23-putin.png?resize=525%2C454&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Rostov-on-Don\" width=\"525\" height=\"454\" \/><\/p>\n<p>There are reports of Wagner seizing a second major city on the road to Moscow, meeting little opposition.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-23-voronezh2.png?resize=525%2C543&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Voronezh\" width=\"525\" height=\"543\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Tom Nichols in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2023\/06\/russia-crisis-coup-prigozhin\/674516\/\">The Atlantic<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Think of this conflict not as a contest between the Russian state and a mercenary group, but a falling out among gangsters, a kind of Mafia war&#8230;..<\/p>\n<p>But no matter how this ends, Prigozhin has shattered Putin\u2019s narrative, torching the war as a needless and even criminal mistake. That\u2019s a problem for Putin that could outlast this rebellion.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Michael McFaul, former ambassador to Moscow under the Obama administration, in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.journalofdemocracy.org\/why-vladimir-putins-luck-ran-out\/\">Journal of Democracy, February 2023<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Putin\u2019s luck ran out in 2022. By launching a full-scale, barbaric invasion of Ukraine one year ago, Putin has caused horrific bloodshed and suffering in Ukraine, hurting the very \u201cbrothers and sisters\u201d he supposedly seeks to \u201cprotect\u201d while also failing to achieve most of his war aims. But Putin\u2019s war in Ukraine has also triggered deep damage to his own country, especially to Russia\u2019s armed forces, the economy, society, and, in the long run, to his own regime. Ironically, Putin\u2019s destruction of democracy in Russia decades ago created the conditions for this disastrous decision in 2022 \u2014 a decision that may eventually unravel the very autocracy that he constructed and has been consolidating for so long.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Autocracy has two major flaws. First, no one wants to give an autocrat bad news. Dictators only get told what they want to hear, leaving them badly out of touch. Poor decision-making is the inevitable result.<\/p>\n<p>Second, suppression may quell dissent but leaves no release for the buildup of underlying pressures, creating the illusion of stability but fueling the potential to explode into violence at any time.<\/p>\n<p>A breakdown of law and order in Russia, while it may have long-term benefits, is a dangerous situation that could easily spiral out of control. With disastrous consequences not only for the people of Russia but for surrounding regions within Russia&#8217;s &#8220;sphere of influence&#8221;. Belarus, Georgia, Syria, Armenia, Azerbaijan&#8230;.. all are at risk of unrest as opposing factions attempt to take advantage of a distracted Kremlin.<\/p>\n<p>It also increases the risk of high-risk behavior in Ukraine from the Kremlin.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-23-zaporizhzia.png?resize=525%2C421&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Zaporizhzia\" width=\"525\" height=\"421\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Foreign Affairs, June 24th: On Friday night, political infighting in Moscow spilled out into the open, with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia\u2019s Wagner mercenary group, accusing the Russian military of attacking his forces and vowing to retaliate. In messages published on his official Telegram channel, Prigozhin also claimed that all of the Kremlin\u2019s &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/24\/russia-putin-in-crisis\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Russia | Putin in Crisis&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,29],"tags":[3006,3614,5988,5987],"class_list":["post-42723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-russia-former-ussr","category-the-big-picture","tag-russia","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-wagner","tag-yevgeny-prigozhin"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Russia | Putin in Crisis - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russia | Putin in Crisis - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Foreign Affairs, June 24th: On Friday night, political infighting in Moscow spilled out into the open, with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia\u2019s Wagner mercenary group, accusing the Russian military of attacking his forces and vowing to retaliate. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-b75","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":30988,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/15\/russia-ukraine-update\/","url_meta":{"origin":42723,"position":0},"title":"Russia-Ukraine latest developments","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 15, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Russia shifted to a more conciliatory tone, hinting at further dialogue. From the New York Times: The tone of the crisis over Ukraine shifted Monday as Russia\u2019s top diplomat endorsed more talks to resolve its standoff with the West, and Ukrainian officials hinted at offering concessions to avert war \u2014\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Twitter","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-15-ramani.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-15-ramani.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-15-ramani.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11191,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/23\/russias-ruble-in-a-world-of-pain\/","url_meta":{"origin":42723,"position":1},"title":"Russia&#8217;s Ruble in a world of pain","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 23, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Russia's ruble is in a world of pain, having lost one-third of its value against the Dollar over the last 40 months. The down-trend is accelerating, emphasized by two large 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below the zero line. Vladimir Putin has backed himself into a corner and has no way\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Forex&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Forex","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RUBUSD","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-23-rub.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-23-rub.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-23-rub.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9865,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/23\/what-ukraine-crisis-means-for-future-of-europe-spiegel-online\/","url_meta":{"origin":42723,"position":2},"title":"What Ukraine Crisis Means for Future of Europe | SPIEGEL ONLINE","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 23, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting extract from Spiegel interview with Prof. Timothy Snyder from Yale: SPIEGEL: What motivates Putin?Snyder: I think Putin is playing an all-or-nothing game, geopolitically speaking. He no longer cares about tolerable relations with the EU or about a solid relationship with Ukraine. Putin has opted for something else, a much\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10506,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/03\/has-vladimir-putin-taken-a-dangerous-ideological-turn\/","url_meta":{"origin":42723,"position":3},"title":"Has Vladimir Putin taken a dangerous ideological turn?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 3, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Putin appears to have taken a decisive ideological turn. Listen to the @PowerVertical podcast: http:\/\/t.co\/GIOmQSCLY0\u2014 RFE\/RL (@RFERL) August 2, 2014 Vladimir Putin has long shown himself to be ruthless and cynical. But also pragmatic and rational. In his third term in the Kremlin, however, and particularly in the Ukraine crisis,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11542,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/10\/putin-will-never-back-down-institutional-investors-alpha\/","url_meta":{"origin":42723,"position":4},"title":"Putin Will Never Back Down | Institutional Investor&#8217;s Alpha","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 10, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent analysis of the situation in Eastern Europe by Bill Browder, founder of London-based Hermitage Capital Management: I'm afraid that, based on the reasons behind Putin's motivations for invading Ukraine in the first place, there is no chance that he will back down. To understand this, all it takes is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Former Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/mcfaul.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":9751,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/04\/30\/challenging-putins-values-nytimes-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":42723,"position":5},"title":"Challenging Putin\u2019s Values | NYTimes.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 30, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Thomas L. Friedman's opinion at the NY Times: .......Ukraine is not threatening Russia, but Ukraine\u2019s revolution is threatening Putin. The main goal of the Ukraine uprising is to import a rules-based system from the E.U. that will break the kleptocracy that has dominated Kiev \u2014 the same kind of kleptocracy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42723","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42723"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42723\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42730,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42723\/revisions\/42730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42723"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42723"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42723"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}