{"id":4133,"date":"2012-04-19T16:22:19","date_gmt":"2012-04-19T20:22:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=4133"},"modified":"2012-04-19T16:22:19","modified_gmt":"2012-04-19T20:22:19","slug":"not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/","title":{"rendered":"Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling &#8211; Floyd Norris &#8211; NYTimes.com"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Floyd Norris<\/strong>: To get some idea of what needs to be done now \u2014 and what the result will be \u2014 the McKinsey institute points to two incidents in the early 1990s that got little attention at the time in the United States. Those were the bursting of real estate bubbles in Sweden and Finland. Details differ, but in each country there were two distinct phases of deleveraging.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn the first,\u201d the McKinsey institute said in an analysis published early this year, \u201chouseholds, corporations and financial institutions reduce debt significantly over several years, while economic growth is negative or minimal and government debt rises.\u201d That is certainly what has happened in the United States.<\/p>\n<p>The second phase is the good part, the institute said. \u201cGrowth rebounds and government debt is reduced gradually over several years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In this country, the deleveraging process has some way to go, with many foreclosures still pending, but it is at least possible that economic growth is beginning to accelerate. It is clear that the United States has made a lot more progress in cutting consumer debt than has been made in either Britain or Spain, two other countries that suffered from falling real estate prices.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/04\/20\/business\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-us-debt-levels-are-falling.html?_r=1\">Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling &#8211; Floyd Norris &#8211; NYTimes.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Comment:~ Before we congratulate ourselves on escaping from the clutches of the Great Recession, let&#8217;s not forget that government debt is growing at an unsustainable rate of $1.2 trillion\/year. That is likely to slow sharply after November elections, causing a &#8220;double-dip&#8221; contraction. The deleveraging process has only just begun.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Floyd Norris: To get some idea of what needs to be done now \u2014 and what the result will be \u2014 the McKinsey institute points to two incidents in the early 1990s that got little attention at the time in the United States. Those were the bursting of real estate bubbles in Sweden and Finland. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling &#8211; Floyd Norris &#8211; NYTimes.com&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,34],"tags":[993],"class_list":["post-4133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-debt-levels","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-deleveraging"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling - Floyd Norris - NYTimes.com - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling - Floyd Norris - NYTimes.com - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Floyd Norris: To get some idea of what needs to be done now \u2014 and what the result will be \u2014 the McKinsey institute points to two incidents in the early 1990s that got little attention at the time in the United States. Those were the bursting of real estate bubbles in Sweden and Finland. &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling &#8211; Floyd Norris &#8211; NYTimes.com&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-04-19T20:22:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling &#8211; Floyd Norris &#8211; NYTimes.com\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-04-19T20:22:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/\"},\"wordCount\":282,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"deleveraging\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Debt Levels\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/\",\"name\":\"Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling - Floyd Norris - NYTimes.com - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-04-19T20:22:19+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/19\/not-exactly-a-miracle-but-u-s-debt-levels-are-falling-floyd-norris-nytimes-com\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling &#8211; Floyd Norris &#8211; NYTimes.com\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-14F","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2678,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/18\/debt-and-deleveraging-the-global-credit-bubble-and-its-economic-consequences-mckinsey-global-institute-financial-markets-mckinsey-company\/","url_meta":{"origin":4133,"position":0},"title":"Debt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences | McKinsey Global Institute","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 18, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Empirically, a long period of deleveraging nearly always follows a major financial crisis. Deleveraging episodes are painful, lasting six to seven years on average and reducing the ratio of debt to GDP by 25 percent. GDP typically contracts during the first several years and then recovers. via Debt and deleveraging:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27803,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/09\/09\/low-interest-rates-and-the-debt-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":4133,"position":1},"title":"Low interest rates and the debt trap","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 9, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Since 1980, debt levels have more than doubled, from 1.4 times GDP to more than 2.8 in Q1 this year. The rise has been facilitated (and encouraged) by a sharp fall in long-term interest rates, with 10-year Treasury yields falling from a peak of close to 16% in September 1981\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3835,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/17\/real-recovery-americas-debt-is-on-the-decline\/","url_meta":{"origin":4133,"position":2},"title":"Real Recovery: America\u2019s Debt is on the Decline","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 17, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"[A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute] estimated that home equity loans and cash-out refinancing increased consumer spending by a percentage point to 3 percent growth a year during the housing bubble years. But with that source of debt financing gone, retailers are more likely to see 2 percent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2664,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/16\/mark-carney-growth-in-the-age-of-deleveraging\/","url_meta":{"origin":4133,"position":3},"title":"Mark Carney: Growth in the age of deleveraging","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 16, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Today, American aggregate non-financial debt is at levels similar to those last seen in the midst of the Great Depression. At 250 per cent of GDP, that debt burden is equivalent to almost US$120,000 for every American (Chart 1). .....backsliding on financial reform is not a solution to current problems.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12604,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/25\/what-to-do-about-debt-project-syndicate\/","url_meta":{"origin":4133,"position":4},"title":"What To Do About Debt | Project Syndicate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"From Richard Kozul-Wright, author of Transforming Economies: Making Industrial Policy Work for Growth, Jobs and Development: Global debt has grown some $57 trillion since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, reaching a back-breaking $199 trillion in 2014, more than 2.5 times global GDP, according to the McKinsey Global Institute......\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":43889,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/06\/chinas-debt-and-implications-for-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":4133,"position":5},"title":"China&#8217;s debt and implications for Australia","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"China remains Australia's biggest export market despite a rapid fall in exports during the COVID pandemic -- in retaliation for Morrison government calls for an inquiry into the cause of the outbreak. Value of LNG exports to Japan have surged, after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but China remains our\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian Exports by Country","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-05-aus-exports-country.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4133"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4133\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}