{"id":41300,"date":"2023-03-18T06:36:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-18T06:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=41300"},"modified":"2023-03-21T23:51:03","modified_gmt":"2023-03-21T23:51:03","slug":"harley-bassman-the-move-index","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/18\/harley-bassman-the-move-index\/","title":{"rendered":"Harley Bassman | The MOVE Index"},"content":{"rendered":"

The MOVE Index has jumped to the fore as the best measure of financial market volatility. While the VIX measures volatility in equity markets, the equivalent MOVE Index measures volatility in the far larger bond market which as a better track record as a leading indicator of the economy. Here are some quotes from MOVE creator Harley Bassman that explain how the MOVE works:<\/p>\n

The MOVE and the VIX are very similar in that they basically measure short dated one month volatility. The key thing is that these indices are mostly coincident indicators as opposed to forward looking, because they tend to track realized volatility……<\/p>\n

When you have a very steep [yield] curve, so a two year of, call it two, and a 10 year of four, that creates a forward rate that’s much higher than today.<\/p>\n

When we get that, the steeper the curve or the more inverted, the bigger the distance between today’s interest rates and tomorrow\u2019s interest rate. Time only goes one way. So the future becomes the present, which means that forward rate got to come to the spot, today’s price, or today’s spot price has to go up to the future price. The bigger the distance, the bigger the spread, the more movement there has to be, and therefore the more uncertainty you have; and the price of uncertainty is implied volatility. (ICE.com<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"MOVE<\/p>\n

As the creator of this Index, let me say that both 50 and 150 are the \u201cwrong number\u201d. A level near 50 can only occur when the FED actively constrains risk, while a level near 150 occurs when the FED has lost control. The MOVE at 150 infers interest rate changes of about 9.5bps per day, a volatility that is unsustainable if only because human beings cannot tolerate such stress for long periods of time. (ConvexityMavens.com<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The MOVE Index has jumped to the fore as the best measure of financial market volatility. While the VIX measures volatility in equity markets, the equivalent MOVE Index measures volatility in the far larger bond market which as a better track record as a leading indicator of the economy. Here are some quotes from MOVE … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Harley Bassman | The MOVE Index”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[5666,5653],"class_list":["post-41300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fixed-income","tag-harley-bassman","tag-move-index"],"yoast_head":"\nHarley Bassman | The MOVE Index - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Harley Bassman | The MOVE Index - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The MOVE Index has jumped to the fore as the best measure of financial market volatility. 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What they don't address is protecting financial stability. ~ Mohamed El-Erian The MOVE index of Treasury market volatility has climbed to 160.72. According to Harley Bassman, who created the index, levels above\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core PCE","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-13--cpi-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-13--cpi-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-13--cpi-corepce.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41209,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/11\/banks-fall-gold-rallies-bonds-tremble\/","url_meta":{"origin":41300,"position":1},"title":"Banks fall, Gold rallies, Bonds tremble","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 retreated from the band of resistance between 4100 and 4300, signaling another test of primary support at 3600. Breach of primary support would offer a target of 3000. Banks led the fall, with the S&P 500 Banks Index ($SBIX) plunging to test primary support between 290 and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-10-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41044,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/01\/dont-trust-the-vix\/","url_meta":{"origin":41300,"position":2},"title":"Don’t trust the VIX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year US Treasury yields broke resistance at 3.90% and are now retracing to test the new support level. Respect would confirm the target of 4.20%. The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 4200 over the last month as long-term yields rose. Annual rate-of-change continues to signal a bear market. Volatility\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44456,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/04\/bond-market-yields-spike-higher\/","url_meta":{"origin":41300,"position":3},"title":"Bond market yields spike higher","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 4, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-Year Treasury yield climbed to 4.80% overnight, ignoring weakness in crude oil. Expect resistance at 5.0%. The MOVE Index of bond market volatility jumped to 141.67. Values above 150 indicate bond market dysfunction (meltdown), according to creator Harley Bassman, with the Fed likely to intervene. Crude Crude plunged on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-03-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-03-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-03-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41250,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/15\/move-flags-distress\/","url_meta":{"origin":41300,"position":4},"title":"MOVE Flags Distress","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 15, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The MOVE index spiked to 170 on Monday, signaling bond market distress. The last time the MOVE was this high was during the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. MOVE is far more important than the VIX in signaling financial market risk. The bond market is larger than the equity market\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"MOVE Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-move.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-move.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-move.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":37857,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/01\/turning-up-the-heat\/","url_meta":{"origin":41300,"position":5},"title":"Turning up the heat","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 1, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets are in a state of flux with high levels of uncertainty. Vladimir Putin is deliberately turning up the heat in the hope that he can break the global financial system and force the West to compromise on Ukraine. He calculates that he can endure more pain than Western politicians\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"USDJPY","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-01-jpy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-01-jpy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-01-jpy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41300"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41300\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41339,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41300\/revisions\/41339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}