{"id":41128,"date":"2023-03-08T22:48:49","date_gmt":"2023-03-08T22:48:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=41128"},"modified":"2023-03-09T00:16:31","modified_gmt":"2023-03-09T00:16:31","slug":"warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/08\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Warren Buffet: Fiscal Deficits and Runaway Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;During the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion. Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than useless&#8230;..Berkshire offers some modest protection from runaway inflation, but this attribute is far from perfect. Huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>~ <a href=\"https:\/\/berkshirehathaway.com\/letters\/2022ltr.pdf\">Berkshire Hathaway Newsletter to Shareholders, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<h4>Comments<\/h4>\n<p>There are three potential sources of funding for fiscal deficits of which two are inflationary:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>The private sector. Deficits funded by the private sector have no impact on inflation. The rise in public spending is offset by a decline in private spending\/increase in savings.<\/li>\n<li>Commercial banks. Inflationary. The bank simply swaps one asset on their balance sheet for another: bank reserves at the Fed are exchanged for Treasury securities. Public spending rises but is not offset elsewhere.<\/li>\n<li>Foreign investors (including banks). Inflationary. Public spending rises but there is no offset. The inflow on capital account is matched by an outflow on current account.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;During the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion. Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/08\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Warren Buffet: Fiscal Deficits and Runaway Inflation&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"quote","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,13,34],"tags":[989,1828],"class_list":["post-41128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-quote","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-deficit-spending","tag-inflation","post_format-post-format-quote"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Warren Buffet: Fiscal Deficits and Runaway Inflation - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Warren Buffet: Fiscal Deficits and Runaway Inflation - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&#8220;During the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion. Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Warren Buffet: Fiscal Deficits and Runaway Inflation&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/08\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-03-08T22:48:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-03-09T00:16:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/08\\\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/08\\\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Warren Buffet: Fiscal Deficits and Runaway Inflation\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-08T22:48:49+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-09T00:16:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/08\\\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":192,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"deficit-spending\",\"Inflation\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment\",\"Inflation\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/08\\\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/08\\\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/08\\\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\\\/\",\"name\":\"Warren Buffet: Fiscal Deficits and Runaway Inflation - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-08T22:48:49+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-09T00:16:31+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/08\\\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/08\\\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2023\\\/03\\\/08\\\/warren-buffet-fiscal-deficits-and-runaway-inflation\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Warren Buffet: Fiscal Deficits and Runaway Inflation\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Warren Buffet: Fiscal Deficits and Runaway Inflation - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Warren Buffet: Fiscal Deficits and Runaway Inflation - the patient investor","og_description":"&#8220;During the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion. 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When the private debt bubble (orange peak) bursts -- as in 1930 or 2008 -- print a lot of money, cut interest rates, and devalue the Dollar. Run large fiscal deficits to substitute\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48306,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/11\/low-growth-and-high-inflation-unless-there-is-a-productivity-miracle\/","url_meta":{"origin":41128,"position":2},"title":"Low growth and high inflation unless there is a productivity miracle","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 11, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent Adam Taggart interview with Steen Jakobsen, CIO of Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, where he breaks down the macro issues facing developed economies. https:\/\/youtu.be\/98UFbC8hDNQ The highlights for us are: GDP growth is a functional of two variables: demographics and productivity. Demographics are a headwind as birthrates fall and populations are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/98UFbC8hDNQ\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":24841,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/27\/decline-of-the-us-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":41128,"position":3},"title":"Decline of the US Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 27, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"In 1971 Richard Nixon took the US Dollar off the gold standard, creating the first reserve currency based on fiat. He had no choice. After LBJ's big-spending guns and butter program of the '60s, the US did not have enough gold reserves to cover its foreign debt. So the US\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61687,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/17\/the-elephant-in-the-room-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":41128,"position":4},"title":"The elephant in the room","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 17, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The elephant in the room is $37 trillion of US fiscal debt Rising long-term interest rates reflect bond market concerns that the Fed will sacrifice price stability to support an unstable Treasury market A year ago, we wrote: The elephant in the room is Government debt which is growing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CBO Projections of Debt Held by the Public as a Percentage of GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":45775,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/29\/michael-howell-why-monetary-inflation-will-drive-gold-higher\/","url_meta":{"origin":41128,"position":5},"title":"Michael Howell | Why Monetary Inflation will Drive Gold Higher","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 29, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/G_e1wAXJEhw?si=CGGiEMy48kpkLwVp In this interview, Michael Howell from Cross Border Capital suggests that the Fed will be forced to step in to fund US federal government deficits. Deficits will rise for two reasons: An ageing population means greater spending on Medicare, Medicaid and social security. Defense spending rising to 5.0% of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/G_e1wAXJEhw\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41128"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41128\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41132,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41128\/revisions\/41132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}