{"id":39792,"date":"2022-12-21T02:40:44","date_gmt":"2022-12-21T02:40:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=39792"},"modified":"2022-12-21T05:00:11","modified_gmt":"2022-12-21T05:00:11","slug":"nouriel-roubini-we-are-in-a-debt-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/21\/nouriel-roubini-we-are-in-a-debt-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"Nouriel Roubini: &#8220;We are in a debt trap&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ADh6QTp8798?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Nouriel Roubini was mocked by the media &#8212; who christened him &#8220;Dr Doom&#8221; &#8212; because of his prescient warnings ahead of the 2008 global financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p>He has now published a book identifying 10 mega-threats to the global economy.<\/p>\n<p>First and foremost is the debt trap. Private and public debt has expanded from 100% of GDP in the 1970s, to 200% by 1999, 350% last year &#8212; advanced economies even higher at 420%, China at 330%. Inflation forces central banks to raise interest rates. High rates mean many debtors will be unable to repay.<\/p>\n<p>If governments print money to bail out the economy they will cause further inflation &#8212; a tax on creditors and savers [negative real rates threaten collapse of the insurance and pension industry].<\/p>\n<p>We face prolonged high inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Central Banks hiking rates is misguided, economic crisis will be so damaging they will be forced to reverse course.<\/p>\n<p>Supply shocks from pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war and China zero-COVID policy.<\/p>\n<p>Fiscal deficits will rise due to increased spending on national security and reducing carbon emissions.<\/p>\n<p>Twenty years of kicking the can down the road [short election cycle incentivizes this], with politicians unwilling to support short-term costs for long-term gain because they are unlikely to be in power to reap the rewards. Older voters are also unlikely to support change as they may not be around to reap the benefits.<\/p>\n<p>Carbon emissions are increasing due to the energy crisis from Russia-Ukraine war. Carbon tax of $200\/tonne required, currently $2.<\/p>\n<p>We need to reduce our energy consumption.<\/p>\n<p>Also increase productivity. Technology is the only solution. AI and automation could lift GDP growth, providing sufficient income to fund the changes needed.<\/p>\n<p>But technology is also a threat. It provides more dangerous weapons which risk greater destruction in the next conflict.<\/p>\n<p>Democracy is still the best system. Autocracies are often corrupt and way too much concentration of power [echo chamber] leads to mistakes. They also increase inequality and political instability.<\/p>\n<p>Nouriel seems bullish on gold because of geopolitical tensions. Also &#8220;green metals&#8221; because of the need to reduce CO<sup>2<\/sup> emissions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nouriel Roubini was mocked by the media &#8212; who christened him &#8220;Dr Doom&#8221; &#8212; because of his prescient warnings ahead of the 2008 global financial crisis. He has now published a book identifying 10 mega-threats to the global economy. First and foremost is the debt trap. Private and public debt has expanded from 100% of &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/21\/nouriel-roubini-we-are-in-a-debt-trap\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Nouriel Roubini: &#8220;We are in a debt trap&#8221;&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41,45,46,3761,13,26,33,34],"tags":[973,5754,5755],"class_list":["post-39792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-debt-levels","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-russia-former-ussr","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-debt-trap","tag-mega-threats","tag-nouriel-roubini"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nouriel Roubini: &quot;We are in a debt trap&quot; - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nouriel Roubini: &quot;We are in a debt trap&quot; - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nouriel Roubini was mocked by the media &#8212; who christened him &#8220;Dr Doom&#8221; &#8212; because of his prescient warnings ahead of the 2008 global financial crisis. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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The result is persistent disinflationary, if not deflationary, pressure, despite aggressive monetary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":883,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/21\/how-to-prevent-a-depression-nouriel-roubini-project-syndicate\/","url_meta":{"origin":39792,"position":1},"title":"How to Prevent a Depression &#8211; Nouriel Roubini &#8211; Project Syndicate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 21, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The risks ahead are not just of a mild double-dip recession, but of a severe contraction that could turn into Great Depression II, especially if the eurozone crisis becomes disorderly and leads to a global financial meltdown. Wrong-headed policies during the first Great Depression led to trade and currency wars,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":199,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/12\/nouriel-roubini-says-the-risk-of-a-global-recession-is-greater-than-50-percent-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":39792,"position":2},"title":"Nouriel Roubini says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50 percent &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 12, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Economist Nouriel Roubini says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50 percent, and he's putting his money in cash. [gigya src=\"http:\/\/s.wsj.net\/media\/swf\/VideoPlayerMain.swf\" width=\"512\" height=\"363\" quality=\"high\" wmode=\"transparent\" allowFullScreen=\"true\" flashVars=\"videoGUID={C036B113-6D5F-4524-A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735}&playerid=1000&plyMediaEnabled=1&configURL=http:\/\/wsj.vo.llnwd.net\/o28\/players\/&autoStart=false\"] http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/video\/roubini-warns-of-global-recession-risk\/C036B113-6D5F-4524-A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735.html","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2660,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/15\/fragile-and-unbalanced-in-2012-nouriel-roubini-project-syndicate\/","url_meta":{"origin":39792,"position":3},"title":"Fragile and Unbalanced in 2012 &#8211; Nouriel Roubini &#8211; Project Syndicate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 15, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The outlook for the global economy in 2012 is clear, but it isn\u2019t pretty: recession in Europe, anemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. ......Adjustment of relative prices via currency movements is stalled, because surplus countries are resisting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4785,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/07\/roubini-says-2013-storm-may-surpass-2008-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":39792,"position":4},"title":"Roubini Says 2013 `Storm&#039; May Surpass 2008 Crisis","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 7, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Nouriel Robini on Bloomberg TV: The Euro summit was a failure... markets were expecting much more. Either you have debt neutralization [EFSF purchases of government bonds] or debt monetization by the ECB or EFSF\/ESM be doubled or tripled using leverage ....or you will have a worse crisis in the next\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19031,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/09\/ultra-low-interest-rates-may-lead-to-a-debt-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":39792,"position":5},"title":"Ultra-low interest rates may lead to a &#8216;debt trap&#8217;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 9, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The highly-regarded Stephen Bartholomeusz warns that central bank policies may lead to a 'debt trap': \"....With the world apparently re-starting the use of unconventional monetary policies even before central banks have extricated themselves from the legacies of a decade of those policies, there is a real risk that the impacts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39792"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39792\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39812,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39792\/revisions\/39812"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}