{"id":39516,"date":"2022-12-12T06:22:05","date_gmt":"2022-12-12T06:22:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=39516"},"modified":"2022-12-12T06:22:05","modified_gmt":"2022-12-12T06:22:05","slug":"aristocrat-leisure-all-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)"},"content":{"rendered":"<table border=\"0\" summary=\"Current Price and Fair Value Estimate\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Stock:<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><strong>Aristocrat Leisure Ltd<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Exchange:<\/td>\n<td>ASX<\/td>\n<td>Symbol:<\/td>\n<td><strong>ALL<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Date:<\/td>\n<td>12-Dec-22<\/td>\n<td>Latest price:<\/td>\n<td><strong>A$33.64<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Market Cap:<\/td>\n<td>A$22.2 bn<\/td>\n<td>Fair Value:<\/td>\n<td><strong>A$25.21<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Forward DY:<\/td>\n<td>1.5%<\/td>\n<td>Payback (Years):<\/td>\n<td>11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Financial Y\/E:<\/td>\n<td>30-Sep-23<\/td>\n<td>Rating:<\/td>\n<td><strong>HOLD<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Sector:<\/td>\n<td>Discretionary<\/td>\n<td>Industry:<\/td>\n<td>Gambling<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Investment Theme:<\/td>\n<td>LT Growth<\/td>\n<td>Macro Trends:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Online Entertainment<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Aristocrat is trading at a premium to our estimate of fair value while the stock is in a down-trend. Our recommendation is to HOLD.<\/p>\n<h2>Valuation<\/h2>\n<p>We increased our fair value estimate for Aristocrat (ALL) by 66%, to A$25.21, based on the following long-term projections:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Real organic long-term revenue growth of 6%;<\/li>\n<li>EBITDA margin of 30% (currently 33.2% in FY22);<\/li>\n<li>Capital expenditure of 5.0% of revenue;<\/li>\n<li>No increases in net working capital; and<\/li>\n<li>An effective tax rate of 30%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We selected a payback period of 11 years (formerly 10 years) to reflect Aristocrat&#8217;s strong market share but in a cyclical industry. The company recovered well from the pandemic but may have benefited from increased disposable income due to government transfers.<\/p>\n<h2>Business Profile<\/h2>\n<p>Aristocrat Leisure is an electronic gaming machine manufacturer, selling machines to pubs, clubs, and casinos. The firm is licensed in all Australian states and territories, North American jurisdictions, and essentially every major country. Aristocrat is one of the largest three players in the space along with International Game Technology and Scientific Games. Through acquisitions of Plarium and Big Fish, Aristocrat now derives a significant proportion of earnings from mobile gaming, under the Pixel United banner.<\/p>\n<h3>Performance<\/h3>\n<p>Revenue grew 12% in FY22, while EBITDA grew 13.7%, on a constant currency basis.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png?resize=525%2C93&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Gaming\" width=\"525\" height=\"93\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-pixelunited.png?resize=525%2C129&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Pixel United\" width=\"525\" height=\"129\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Capital structure<\/h3>\n<p>Aristocrat&#8217;s cash assets exceed debt plus lease liabilities.<\/p>\n<h4>Disclosure<\/h4>\n<p>Staff of The Patient Investor may directly or indirectly own shares in the above company.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock: Aristocrat Leisure Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: ALL Date: 12-Dec-22 Latest price: A$33.64 Market Cap: A$22.2 bn Fair Value: A$25.21 Forward DY: 1.5% Payback (Years): 11 Financial Y\/E: 30-Sep-23 Rating: HOLD Sector: Discretionary Industry: Gambling Investment Theme: LT Growth Macro Trends: Online Entertainment Aristocrat is trading at a premium to our estimate of fair value &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3799],"tags":[5745],"class_list":["post-39516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-pvt-australia","tag-aristocrat-leisure-all"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock: Aristocrat Leisure Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: ALL Date: 12-Dec-22 Latest price: A$33.64 Market Cap: A$22.2 bn Fair Value: A$25.21 Forward DY: 1.5% Payback (Years): 11 Financial Y\/E: 30-Sep-23 Rating: HOLD Sector: Discretionary Industry: Gambling Investment Theme: LT Growth Macro Trends: Online Entertainment Aristocrat is trading at a premium to our estimate of fair value &hellip; 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - the patient investor","og_description":"Stock: Aristocrat Leisure Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: ALL Date: 12-Dec-22 Latest price: A$33.64 Market Cap: A$22.2 bn Fair Value: A$25.21 Forward DY: 1.5% Payback (Years): 11 Financial Y\/E: 30-Sep-23 Rating: HOLD Sector: Discretionary Industry: Gambling Investment Theme: LT Growth Macro Trends: Online Entertainment Aristocrat is trading at a premium to our estimate of fair value &hellip; Continue reading \"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2022-12-12T06:22:05+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)","datePublished":"2022-12-12T06:22:05+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/"},"wordCount":272,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png","keywords":["Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)"],"articleSection":["PVT Australian Portfolio"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/","name":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png","datePublished":"2022-12-12T06:22:05+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-ahm","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":16829,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/15\/aristocrat-leisure-all\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":0},"title":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 15, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Aristocrat Leisure Symbol: ALL Exchange: ASX Financial Year-end: 30 September 2018 Latest price: $31.11 Date: August 10, 2018 Company Profile Aristocrat Leisure designs and develops electronic gaming machines, video lottery terminal systems, and casino-management systems. Competitors & Markets The company is one of the top three global manufacturers and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18621,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/07\/australian-growth-performance-at-31-july-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":1},"title":"Australian Growth: Performance at 31 July 2019","author":"Andy","date":"August 7, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian Growth portfolio performance since inception on 1 July 2018 is set out below. This is too short a period to give a real indication as to how the portfolio will perform in the long-term: we expect to hold most growth stocks for 5 to 10 years. Performance of Individual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;PVT Australian Performance&quot;","block_context":{"text":"PVT Australian Performance","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/pvt-australian-performance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/australian-performance-20190731.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":17458,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/26\/australian-growth-portfolio-at-3-july-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":2},"title":"Australian Growth &#8211; Portfolio at 3 July 2018","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 26, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"This is a model portfolio of Australian growth stocks selected by me on July 1st, 2018. The selection is based on my investment strategy and is more diverse than the International Growth portfolio, including stocks that generate strong dividend income and cyclical gold and resources stocks. Reasons for this are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;PVT Australian Portfolio&quot;","block_context":{"text":"PVT Australian Portfolio","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/pvt-australia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21385,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/03\/lt-trends-ageing-populations-travel-leisure\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":3},"title":"LT trends: Ageing Populations &#8211; Travel &#038; Leisure","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 3, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We concluded yesterday that ageing populations will continue to boost demand for health care. Another important beneficiary of ageing populations has been the travel industry. Retirees tend to spend more on travel and accommodation than people in the workforce. Primary beneficiaries were cruise lines, air travel, and travel bookings. But\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Structural Trends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Structural Trends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/structural-trends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17841,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/04\/wisetech-global-ltd-wtc-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":4},"title":"WiseTech Global Ltd (WTC)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: WiseTech Global Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: WTC Date: February 4, 2019 Latest price: $20.33 AUD Market Cap: $6.09 bn Fair Value Estimate: $10.50 Forward P\/E: 99.0 Fair Value Payback: 13 Years Financial Y\/E: 30 June Rating: Underperform Sector: Technology Industry: Software - Infrastructure Investment Theme: Long-term Growth Structural Trends:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;PVT Australian Portfolio&quot;","block_context":{"text":"PVT Australian Portfolio","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/pvt-australia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":42680,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/19\/pilbara-minerals-ltd-pls\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":5},"title":"Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 19, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Pilbara Minerals Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: PLS Date: 19-Jun-23 Latest price: A$4.84 Market Cap: A$14.5 bn Fair Value: A$4.98 Forward DY: 4.5% Payback (Years): N\/A Financial Y\/E: 30-Jun-23 Rating: HOLD Sector: Metals & Mining Industry: Lithium Investment Theme: Critical Materials Macro Trends: EVs Summary Pilbara Minerals (PLS) is trading\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;PVT Australian Portfolio&quot;","block_context":{"text":"PVT Australian Portfolio","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/pvt-australia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"PLS","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-19-pls.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-19-pls.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-19-pls.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39516"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39518,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39516\/revisions\/39518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}