{"id":39516,"date":"2022-12-12T06:22:05","date_gmt":"2022-12-12T06:22:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=39516"},"modified":"2022-12-12T06:22:05","modified_gmt":"2022-12-12T06:22:05","slug":"aristocrat-leisure-all-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)"},"content":{"rendered":"<table border=\"0\" summary=\"Current Price and Fair Value Estimate\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Stock:<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><strong>Aristocrat Leisure Ltd<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Exchange:<\/td>\n<td>ASX<\/td>\n<td>Symbol:<\/td>\n<td><strong>ALL<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Date:<\/td>\n<td>12-Dec-22<\/td>\n<td>Latest price:<\/td>\n<td><strong>A$33.64<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Market Cap:<\/td>\n<td>A$22.2 bn<\/td>\n<td>Fair Value:<\/td>\n<td><strong>A$25.21<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Forward DY:<\/td>\n<td>1.5%<\/td>\n<td>Payback (Years):<\/td>\n<td>11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Financial Y\/E:<\/td>\n<td>30-Sep-23<\/td>\n<td>Rating:<\/td>\n<td><strong>HOLD<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Sector:<\/td>\n<td>Discretionary<\/td>\n<td>Industry:<\/td>\n<td>Gambling<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Investment Theme:<\/td>\n<td>LT Growth<\/td>\n<td>Macro Trends:<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Online Entertainment<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Aristocrat is trading at a premium to our estimate of fair value while the stock is in a down-trend. Our recommendation is to HOLD.<\/p>\n<h2>Valuation<\/h2>\n<p>We increased our fair value estimate for Aristocrat (ALL) by 66%, to A$25.21, based on the following long-term projections:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Real organic long-term revenue growth of 6%;<\/li>\n<li>EBITDA margin of 30% (currently 33.2% in FY22);<\/li>\n<li>Capital expenditure of 5.0% of revenue;<\/li>\n<li>No increases in net working capital; and<\/li>\n<li>An effective tax rate of 30%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We selected a payback period of 11 years (formerly 10 years) to reflect Aristocrat&#8217;s strong market share but in a cyclical industry. The company recovered well from the pandemic but may have benefited from increased disposable income due to government transfers.<\/p>\n<h2>Business Profile<\/h2>\n<p>Aristocrat Leisure is an electronic gaming machine manufacturer, selling machines to pubs, clubs, and casinos. The firm is licensed in all Australian states and territories, North American jurisdictions, and essentially every major country. Aristocrat is one of the largest three players in the space along with International Game Technology and Scientific Games. Through acquisitions of Plarium and Big Fish, Aristocrat now derives a significant proportion of earnings from mobile gaming, under the Pixel United banner.<\/p>\n<h3>Performance<\/h3>\n<p>Revenue grew 12% in FY22, while EBITDA grew 13.7%, on a constant currency basis.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png?resize=525%2C93&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Gaming\" width=\"525\" height=\"93\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-pixelunited.png?resize=525%2C129&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Pixel United\" width=\"525\" height=\"129\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Capital structure<\/h3>\n<p>Aristocrat&#8217;s cash assets exceed debt plus lease liabilities.<\/p>\n<h4>Disclosure<\/h4>\n<p>Staff of The Patient Investor may directly or indirectly own shares in the above company.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock: Aristocrat Leisure Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: ALL Date: 12-Dec-22 Latest price: A$33.64 Market Cap: A$22.2 bn Fair Value: A$25.21 Forward DY: 1.5% Payback (Years): 11 Financial Y\/E: 30-Sep-23 Rating: HOLD Sector: Discretionary Industry: Gambling Investment Theme: LT Growth Macro Trends: Online Entertainment Aristocrat is trading at a premium to our estimate of fair value &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3799],"tags":[5745],"class_list":["post-39516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asx-growth","tag-aristocrat-leisure-all"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock: Aristocrat Leisure Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: ALL Date: 12-Dec-22 Latest price: A$33.64 Market Cap: A$22.2 bn Fair Value: A$25.21 Forward DY: 1.5% Payback (Years): 11 Financial Y\/E: 30-Sep-23 Rating: HOLD Sector: Discretionary Industry: Gambling Investment Theme: LT Growth Macro Trends: Online Entertainment Aristocrat is trading at a premium to our estimate of fair value &hellip; 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - the patient investor","og_description":"Stock: Aristocrat Leisure Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: ALL Date: 12-Dec-22 Latest price: A$33.64 Market Cap: A$22.2 bn Fair Value: A$25.21 Forward DY: 1.5% Payback (Years): 11 Financial Y\/E: 30-Sep-23 Rating: HOLD Sector: Discretionary Industry: Gambling Investment Theme: LT Growth Macro Trends: Online Entertainment Aristocrat is trading at a premium to our estimate of fair value &hellip; Continue reading \"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2022-12-12T06:22:05+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)","datePublished":"2022-12-12T06:22:05+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/"},"wordCount":272,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png","keywords":["Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)"],"articleSection":["Australian Growth"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/","name":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png","datePublished":"2022-12-12T06:22:05+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/all-gaming.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/12\/aristocrat-leisure-all-2\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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Competitors & Markets The company is one of the top three global manufacturers and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18621,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/07\/australian-growth-performance-at-31-july-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":1},"title":"Australian Growth: Performance at 31 July 2019","author":"Andy","date":"August 7, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian Growth portfolio performance since inception on 1 July 2018 is set out below. This is too short a period to give a real indication as to how the portfolio will perform in the long-term: we expect to hold most growth stocks for 5 to 10 years. Performance of Individual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth Performance&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth Performance","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/australian-growth-performance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/australian-performance-20190731.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":17458,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/26\/australian-growth-portfolio-at-3-july-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":2},"title":"Australian Growth &#8211; Portfolio at 3 July 2018","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 26, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"This is a model portfolio of Australian growth stocks selected by me on July 1st, 2018. The selection is based on my investment strategy and is more diverse than the International Growth portfolio, including stocks that generate strong dividend income and cyclical gold and resources stocks. Reasons for this are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17841,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/04\/wisetech-global-ltd-wtc-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":3},"title":"WiseTech Global Ltd (WTC)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: WiseTech Global Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: WTC Date: February 4, 2019 Latest price: $20.33 AUD Market Cap: $6.09 bn Fair Value Estimate: $10.50 Forward P\/E: 99.0 Fair Value Payback: 13 Years Financial Y\/E: 30 June Rating: Underperform Sector: Technology Industry: Software - Infrastructure Investment Theme: Long-term Growth Structural Trends:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21385,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/03\/lt-trends-ageing-populations-travel-leisure\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":4},"title":"LT trends: Ageing Populations &#8211; Travel &#038; Leisure","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 3, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We concluded yesterday that ageing populations will continue to boost demand for health care. Another important beneficiary of ageing populations has been the travel industry. Retirees tend to spend more on travel and accommodation than people in the workforce. Primary beneficiaries were cruise lines, air travel, and travel bookings. But\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Structural Trends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Structural Trends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/structural-trends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17809,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/31\/resmed-inc-rmd-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":39516,"position":5},"title":"ResMed Inc (RMD)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 31, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: ResMed Inc Exchange: ASX Symbol: RMD Date: January 31, 2019 Latest price: $13.07 AUD Market Cap: $18.625 bn Fair Value Estimate: $11.30 Forward P\/E: 25.91 Fair Value Payback: 13 Years Financial Y\/E: 30 June Recommendation: SELL Sector: Healthcare Industry: Medical Devices Investment Theme: Long-term Growth Structural Trends: Ageing Population\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39516"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39518,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39516\/revisions\/39518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}