{"id":3886,"date":"2012-03-19T22:24:45","date_gmt":"2012-03-20T02:24:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=3886"},"modified":"2012-03-19T22:24:45","modified_gmt":"2012-03-20T02:24:45","slug":"rba-gambles-on-china-macrobusiness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/19\/rba-gambles-on-china-macrobusiness\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA gambles on China – MacroBusiness"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Glenn Stevens:<\/strong> Those at home [Australia] see this as well. As consumers, they have responded to the higher exchange rate with record levels of international travel. As producers, however, they also see, with increasing clarity, that the rise in the relative price of natural resources amounts to a global and epochal shift, which carries important implications for economic structure in Australia, as it does everywhere else. Some sectors of the economy will grow in importance as they invest and employ to take advantage of higher prices. Other sectors will get relatively smaller, particularly in the traded sector, as they face relatively lower prices for their products and competition for inputs from the stronger sectors. The exchange rate response to this shift in fundamentals is sending very clearly the signal to shift the industry mix, though this would occur at any exchange rate. The shift in relative prices is a shift in global prices that is more or less invariant to the level of the Australian dollar…..<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Delusional Economics:<\/strong> And there is the China gamble laid bare for all to see. It is true that in relative pricing terms Australia\u2019s income has increased but, as the Governor alludes to, the prices we are paying for cheaper imports is a hollowing out of some industries and a corresponding restructuring of the labour force. By not intervening via monetary and\/or fiscal policy in the capital flows associated with the commodities boom the government and the RBA have made it clear that a restructure of the economy will be the outcome.<\/p>\n

However, as I have pointed out in my analysis of Europe , and Mr Stevens goes on to say later in the speech, structural change is difficult and expensive. By allowing the economy to restructure in this way we are making a one-way bet on China. That is, if we\u2019ve got it wrong on Beijing, we are in seriously deep trouble because there is no Plan B.<\/p>\n

via RBA gambles on China – MacroBusiness<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Glenn Stevens: Those at home [Australia] see this as well. As consumers, they have responded to the higher exchange rate with record levels of international travel. As producers, however, they also see, with increasing clarity, that the rise in the relative price of natural resources amounts to a global and epochal shift, which carries important … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “RBA gambles on China – MacroBusiness”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41],"tags":[292,1147,1315,2204,2322],"class_list":["post-3886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","tag-australian-dollar","tag-dutch-disease","tag-exchange-rate","tag-manufacturing-2","tag-mining"],"yoast_head":"\nRBA gambles on China - MacroBusiness - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RBA gambles on China - MacroBusiness - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Glenn Stevens: Those at home [Australia] see this as well. As consumers, they have responded to the higher exchange rate with record levels of international travel. 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It started with Australia banning Huawei from supplying equipment for its 5G communication network but spiraled downwards after Australia led the call for an international investigation into the COVID-19 outbreak. More than 50 ships carrying Australian coal have been stranded off\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6485,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/14\/productivity-in-ireland-mark-cassidy\/","url_meta":{"origin":3886,"position":1},"title":"Productivity: Ireland leads the way","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 14, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Ireland now leads the United States in labor productivity as measured by GDP (converted to USD after adjusting for purchasing power parity) to hours worked by the workforce. Mark Cassidy writes on Ireland's strong productivity growth during the 1990s: Strong productivity growth during this period was largely driven by substantial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":44534,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/06\/a-tectonic-shift-hurts-highly-leveraged-sectors\/","url_meta":{"origin":3886,"position":2},"title":"A tectonic shift hurts highly-leveraged sectors","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The global economy is experiencing a tectonic shift -- from a lack of demand (requiring stimulus) to a lack of supply (requiring suppression of demand). The sharp rise in interest rates is just part of the adjustment to the new reality. The rise in short-term rates did not have much\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Personal Consumption\/Disposable Personal Income","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-06-pc-dpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-06-pc-dpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-06-pc-dpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19880,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/07\/australia-the-bear-case\/","url_meta":{"origin":3886,"position":3},"title":"Australia: The bear case","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday this week, to a record low of 0.50%. This was necessary in order to limit the interest rate differential with the US and protect the currency. But it will not do much to help the economy. Household debt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12843,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/10\/janet-yellen-on-financial-market-turmoil\/","url_meta":{"origin":3886,"position":4},"title":"Janet Yellen on financial market turmoil","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 10, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen before the House Financial Services Committee: \".....As is always the case, the economic outlook is uncertain. Foreign economic developments, in particular, pose risks to U.S. economic growth. Most notably, although recent economic indicators do not suggest a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, declines in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":39471,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/10\/australia-hard-times\/","url_meta":{"origin":3886,"position":5},"title":"Australia: Hard times","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 10, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"You don't have to be an Einstein to figure out that 2023 is going to be a tough year. Australian consumers have already worked this out, with sentiment plunging to record lows. The bellwether of the Australian economy is housing. 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