{"id":3878,"date":"2012-03-19T21:32:54","date_gmt":"2012-03-20T01:32:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=3878"},"modified":"2012-03-19T21:32:54","modified_gmt":"2012-03-20T01:32:54","slug":"economonitor-nouriel-roubinis-global-economonitor-scary-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/19\/economonitor-nouriel-roubinis-global-economonitor-scary-oil\/","title":{"rendered":"Nouriel Roubini&#039;s Global EconoMonitor \u00bb Scary Oil"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Nouriel Roubini:<\/strong> The last three global recessions (prior to 2008) were each caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East that led to a sharp spike in oil prices. The 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab states led to global stagflation (recession and inflation) in 1974-1975. The Iranian revolution in 1979 led to global stagflation in 1980-1982. And Iraq\u2019s invasion of Kuwait in the summer of 1990 led to the global recession of 1990-1991.<\/p>\n<p>Even the recent global recession, though triggered by a financial crisis, was exacerbated by spiking oil prices in 2008. With the barrel price reaching $145 in July of that year, oil-importing advanced economies and emerging markets alike faced a recessionary tipping point.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;&#8230;..Oil is already well above $100\/barrel, despite weak economic growth in advanced countries and many emerging markets. The fear premium might push prices significantly higher, even if no military conflict ultimately takes place, and could trigger a global recession if one does.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economonitor.com\/nouriel\/2012\/03\/15\/scary-oil\/?utm_source=contactology&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=EconoMonitor%20Highlights%3A%20This%20Week%20Had%20a%20Little%20Bit%20of%20Everything\">EconoMonitor : Nouriel Roubini&#8217;s Global EconoMonitor \u00bb Scary Oil<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nouriel Roubini: The last three global recessions (prior to 2008) were each caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East that led to a sharp spike in oil prices. The 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab states led to global stagflation (recession and inflation) in 1974-1975. The Iranian revolution in 1979 &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/19\/economonitor-nouriel-roubinis-global-economonitor-scary-oil\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Nouriel Roubini&#039;s Global EconoMonitor \u00bb Scary Oil&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,8,29,34],"tags":[1538,1572,2302,2555],"class_list":["post-3878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-gold-commodities","category-the-big-picture","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-geopolitical-shock","tag-global-recession","tag-middle-east","tag-oil"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nouriel Roubini&#039;s Global EconoMonitor \u00bb Scary Oil - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nouriel Roubini&#039;s Global EconoMonitor \u00bb Scary Oil - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nouriel Roubini: The last three global recessions (prior to 2008) were each caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East that led to a sharp spike in oil prices. The 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab states led to global stagflation (recession and inflation) in 1974-1975. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Expect retracement to first find support but a subsequent breakout would offer a target of the 2018 high at 3.25%. Unemployment is testing pre-pandemic lows at 3.6% for U-3 and 6.9% for the broader U-6. In 2007, the unemployment (U-3) low was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":883,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/21\/how-to-prevent-a-depression-nouriel-roubini-project-syndicate\/","url_meta":{"origin":3878,"position":2},"title":"How to Prevent a Depression &#8211; Nouriel Roubini &#8211; Project Syndicate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 21, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The risks ahead are not just of a mild double-dip recession, but of a severe contraction that could turn into Great Depression II, especially if the eurozone crisis becomes disorderly and leads to a global financial meltdown. Wrong-headed policies during the first Great Depression led to trade and currency wars,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":199,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/12\/nouriel-roubini-says-the-risk-of-a-global-recession-is-greater-than-50-percent-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":3878,"position":3},"title":"Nouriel Roubini says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50 percent &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 12, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Economist Nouriel Roubini says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50 percent, and he's putting his money in cash. 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Interestingly, Russian and Chinese ships have not diverted, seemingly immune to the threat of a Houthi attack. Nymex light crude breakout above $78\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-10-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-10-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-10-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31399,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/08\/art-berman-oil-shock\/","url_meta":{"origin":3878,"position":5},"title":"Art Berman | Oil shock","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 8, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Russia produces about 10.6 million barrels per day (mmb\/d) of crude oil and condensate of which it exports roughly 5 mmb\/d. The only larger producer is the U.S. at 11.6 mmb\/d. Europe is most vulnerable as it buys about 25% (2.5 mmb\/d) of its oil from Russia. From Art Berman:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Oil Shocks","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3878"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3878\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}