{"id":38490,"date":"2022-11-03T07:34:42","date_gmt":"2022-11-03T07:34:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=38490"},"modified":"2022-11-03T07:34:42","modified_gmt":"2022-11-03T07:34:42","slug":"fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 75 basis point increase in the Fed funds target rate at his post-FOMC <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/mediacenter\/files\/FOMCpresconf20221102.pdf\">press conference<\/a> today:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points, and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. In addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive stance of policy for some time.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The target range is now 3.75% to 4.0%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Funds Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Commenting on today&#8217;s announcement, Michael Contopoulos from Richard Bernstein says little has changed:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Nothing really changed today, the Fed has been hawkish since Jackson Hole. It doesn&#8217;t matter how high rates go, what matters is that the Fed is going to be restrictive and they&#8217;re going to bring down long-term growth&#8230;..The end game is not cutting rates, at least any time soon, the end game is to slow growth and slow the economy.&#8221; (<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBCFastMoney\/status\/1587917477799153665\">CNBC<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Chris Brightman from Research Affiliates, co-manager several PIMCO funds, offers a <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthion.com\/risk-of-a-financial-accident-is-high-pimco-fund-manager-chris-brightman\/\">useful rule-of-thumb<\/a> as to how far the Fed will need to hike. The unemployment rate has to rise by 1.0% for every 1.0% intended drop in core inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Core inflation is close to 6.0% at present, if we take the average of core CPI (purple), growth in average hourly earnings (pink), and core PCE index (gray). To achieve the Fed&#8217;s 2.0% inflation target, using the above rule-of-thumb, would require a 4.0% increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-u3-corecpi-wages-corepce.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Unemployment\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That means an unemployment rate of 7.5% (red line below), making a recession almost certain.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-u3.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Unemployment Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The recent 10-year\/3-month Treasury yield inversion also warns of a recession in 2023.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-10y3m.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Treasury 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>We expect the Fed to hike the funds rate to between 5.0% and 6.0% &#8212; the futures market reflects a peak of 5.1% in May &#8217;23 &#8212; then a pause to assess the impact on the labor market. Employment tends to lag monetary policy by 6 to 12 months, so the results of recent rate hikes are only likely to show in 2023. The recent inversion of 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields also warns of a recession next year.<\/p>\n<p>The unemployment rate will most likely need to rise to 7.5% to bring inflation back within the Fed&#8217;s target range. That would cause a deep recession, especially if the Fed holds rates high for an extended period as they have indicated.<\/p>\n<p>Uncertainty still surrounds whether the Fed will be able to execute its stated plan. A sharp rise in unemployment or bond market collapse could cause an early Fed pivot as the Treasury yield curve and Fed fund futures still expect.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-yieldcurve-ffr.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Treasury Yield Curve &amp; Fed Funds Rate Futures\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 75 basis point increase in the Fed funds target rate at his post-FOMC press conference today: &#8220;Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points, and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Fed hikes now, pain comes later&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,13,34],"tags":[314,818,5648,1353,5515,3531],"class_list":["post-38490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-core-cpi","tag-core-pce-inflation","tag-fed-funds-rate","tag-treasury-yield-curve","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed hikes now, pain comes later - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed hikes now, pain comes later - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 75 basis point increase in the Fed funds target rate at his post-FOMC press conference today: &#8220;Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points, and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Fed hikes now, pain comes later&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-11-03T07:34:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Fed hikes now, pain comes later\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-11-03T07:34:42+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/\"},\"wordCount\":444,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Average Hourly Earnings\",\"Core CPI\",\"Core PCE Inflation\",\"Fed funds rate\",\"Treasury Yield Curve\",\"Unemployment\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"Inflation\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/\",\"name\":\"Fed hikes now, pain comes later - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-11-03T07:34:42+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Fed hikes now, pain comes later\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later - the patient investor","og_description":"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 75 basis point increase in the Fed funds target rate at his post-FOMC press conference today: &#8220;Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points, and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level &hellip; Continue reading \"Fed hikes now, pain comes later\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2022-11-03T07:34:42+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later","datePublished":"2022-11-03T07:34:42+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/"},"wordCount":444,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png","keywords":["Average Hourly Earnings","Core CPI","Core PCE Inflation","Fed funds rate","Treasury Yield Curve","Unemployment"],"articleSection":["Banks &amp; Interest Rates","Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","GDP and Activity","Inflation","US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/","name":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png","datePublished":"2022-11-03T07:34:42+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-a0O","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":43191,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/27\/more-than-two-rate-hikes-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":38490,"position":0},"title":"More than two rate hikes ahead?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The FOMC announced another 25 basis point rate hike on July 26. The target maximum of 5.50% is the highest level for the fed funds rate in 22 years. Inflation is falling, with monthly CPI and core CPI (annualized) close to the Fed's 2.0% target. We expect an uptick in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate Target - Maximum","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38270,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/22\/brazil-shows-the-way-but-can-we-follow\/","url_meta":{"origin":38490,"position":1},"title":"Brazil shows the way but can we follow?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 22, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Brazil reported that domestic inflation fell to 7.2% in September, from a peak of 12.1% in April. The Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) is the first major central bank to achieve a significant fall in the inflation rate. Brazil: Inflation Rate The reason is not hard to find.\u00a0 BCB is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Africa &amp; South America&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Africa &amp; South America","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/africa-south-america\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brazil: Inflation Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-21-brazil-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-21-brazil-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-21-brazil-inflation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-21-brazil-inflation.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":39916,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/24\/core-pce-inflation-paul-volcker-and-the-copper-price\/","url_meta":{"origin":38490,"position":2},"title":"Core PCE Inflation, Paul Volcker and the Copper price","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 24, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed's favorite measure of underlying inflation, Core PCE inflation (personal consumption expenditures excluding food & energy), eased slightly to 4.7% for the 12 months to November. Monthly growth fell close to the Fed's target -- registering a meager 0.17% (2.04% annualized) for November. But monthly measures can be volatile,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Inflation&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Inflation","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/inflation-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Core PCE Inflation - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-23-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-23-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-23-corepce.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":37669,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/22\/fed-full-speed-ahead-and-damn-the-torpedoes\/","url_meta":{"origin":38490,"position":3},"title":"Fed: Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes!","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 22, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\"Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!\" ~ Union Admiral David Farragut, Battle of Mobile Bay (1864) The Fed stood firm in its commitment to taming inflation, hiking the funds rate target by 75 basis points on Wednesday, to a range of 3.00% to 3.25%. The FOMC statement reads: ....The Committee\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Union Admiral David Farragut","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/davidfarragut.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":62459,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/18\/62459\/","url_meta":{"origin":38490,"position":4},"title":"Powell walks the tightrope with the latest FOMC decision","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with two more expected this year. There is no change to the rate of Fed balance sheet runoff (QT). FOMC dot plot projections reflect a mildly dovish long-run monetary policy, but not sufficient to antagonize the bond market. Chair Jerome\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"FOMC Projections","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-17-fomc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":41673,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/18\/the-dangers-of-political-interference\/","url_meta":{"origin":38490,"position":5},"title":"The dangers of political interference","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 18, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"During the period April '21 to March '22, core PCE inflation climbed from 2.0% to 5.4%, while the Fed kept its funds rate target at a low zero to 0.25%. The yellow box below represents the lost window of opportunity to tackle rising inflation early and prevent it from taking\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & Core PCE Inflation","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-17-ffr--corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-17-ffr--corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-17-ffr--corepce.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38490"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38501,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38490\/revisions\/38501"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}