{"id":38132,"date":"2022-10-15T07:29:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-15T07:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=38132"},"modified":"2022-10-18T05:16:24","modified_gmt":"2022-10-18T05:16:24","slug":"bond-market-no-place-to-hide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/15\/bond-market-no-place-to-hide\/","title":{"rendered":"Bond market: No place to hide"},"content":{"rendered":"

Advance retail sales were flat in September, reflecting slowing growth, but remain well above their pre-pandemic trend. So far, Fed rate hikes have failed to make a dent in consumer spending.<\/p>\n

\"Advance<\/p>\n

Even adjusted for inflation, real retail sales are well above the pre-pandemic trend.<\/p>\n

\"Advance<\/p>\n

The culprit is M2 money supply. While M2 has stopped growing, there has been no real contraction to bring money supply in line with the long-term trend. A fall of that magnitude would have a devastating effect on inflated asset prices.<\/p>\n

\"M2<\/p>\n

Inflation is proving persistent, with CPI hardly budging in September. Hourly earnings growth is slowing but remains a long way above the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target.<\/p>\n

\"CPI<\/p>\n

Treasury yields have broken their forty year down-trend, with the 10-year testing resistance at 4.0%. Stubborn inflation is expected to lift yields even higher.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

Inflation is forcing the Fed to raise interest rates, ending the forty-year expansion in debt levels (relative to GDP). Cheap debt supports elevated asset prices, so a decline in debt levels would cause a similar decline in asset prices.<\/p>\n

\"Non-Financial<\/p>\n

A decline of that magnitude is likely to involve more pain than the political establishment can bear, leaving yield curve control (YCC) as the only viable alternative. The Fed would act as buyer of last resort for federal debt, while suppressing long-term yields. The same playbook was used in the 1950s and ’60s to drive down the debt to GDP ratio, allowing rapid growth in GDP while inflation eroded the real value of public debt.<\/p>\n

\"Federal<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We are fast approaching a turning point<\/a>, where the Fed cannot hike rates further without collapsing the bond market. In the short-term, while asset prices fall, cash is king. But in the long-term investors should beware of financial securities because inflation is expected to eat your lunch<\/em>. Our strategy is to invest in real assets, including gold, critical materials and defensive stocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Advance retail sales were flat in September, reflecting slowing growth, but remain well above their pre-pandemic trend. So far, Fed rate hikes have failed to make a dent in consumer spending. Even adjusted for inflation, real retail sales are well above the pre-pandemic trend. The culprit is M2 money supply. While M2 has stopped growing, … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Bond market: No place to hide”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,3761,9,13,34,35],"tags":[70,5261,854,5273,1718,2179,5668,5477],"class_list":["post-38132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-advance-retail-sales","tag-cpi","tag-federal-debt-gdp","tag-hourly-earnings-growth","tag-m2-money-supply","tag-private-debt-gdp","tag-real-retail-sales"],"yoast_head":"\nBond market: No place to hide - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bond market: No place to hide - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Advance retail sales were flat in September, reflecting slowing growth, but remain well above their pre-pandemic trend. 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While real sales have not increased since early 2021, they have held steady at $230 billion, after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-17-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-17-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-17-realretail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36523,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/18\/us-retail-sales-warn-of-more-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":38132,"position":1},"title":"US retail sales warn of more inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 18, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Advance retail sales for July (excluding motor and parts) came in at a strong $557.9 billion, way above the pre-pandemic trend (dotted line below). Real retail sales grew at a low 0.05% over the previous month, suggesting that the decline in real spending (adjusted for inflation) is slowing after two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-17-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-17-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-17-retail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29912,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/14\/m2-and-the-pig-in-the-python\/","url_meta":{"origin":38132,"position":2},"title":"The pig in the python","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 14, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields broke previous support at 1.43%, warning of a decline to test the July\/August lows at 1.20%. Follow-through below the recent low at 1.34% would strengthen the signal. The Fed is likely to accelerate the taper of its Treasury purchases at the FOMC meeting later this week --\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-14-10yy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-14-10yy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-14-10yy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-14-10yy.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31539,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/17\/retail-spending-steady-but-real-incomes-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":38132,"position":3},"title":"Retail spending steady but real incomes fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 17, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Retail sales for February are still considerably above their long-term trend (dotted line) even when adjusted for inflation (CPI). Above-trend demand -- in addition to supply chain shortages -- adds to inflationary pressure. Real disposable personal income is falling below trend (dotted line) as government transfers decline. After a sharp\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Retail Sales\/CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-retail-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-retail-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-retail-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-retail-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":40882,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/02\/15\/40882\/","url_meta":{"origin":38132,"position":4},"title":"CPI: Inflation proving persistent","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 15, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Consumer price index (CPI) growth slowed to 6.3% for the 12-months to January, from 6.4% in December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, slowed to 5.5%, from 5.7% in December. Monthly figures show a resurgence in CPI, recording a 0.52% increase in January (6.2% annualized), while core CPI was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-15-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-15-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-15-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":28749,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/06\/strong-retail-sales-missing-workers-and-the-inflation-threat\/","url_meta":{"origin":38132,"position":5},"title":"Retail sales, missing workers and the inflation threat","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 6, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The October labor report shows hours worked were roughly unchanged from September and still 100K below the pre-pandemic high (5.25m). But GDP of 19.5 trillion is up slightly when compared to 19.2T in Q3 2019, indicating that productivity has improved. Monthly retail sales for September, on the other hand, were\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP & Hours Worked","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38132"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38132\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38136,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38132\/revisions\/38136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}