{"id":37932,"date":"2022-10-05T02:06:24","date_gmt":"2022-10-05T02:06:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=37932"},"modified":"2022-10-05T02:08:52","modified_gmt":"2022-10-05T02:08:52","slug":"appen-ltd-apx","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/","title":{"rendered":"Appen Ltd (APX)"},"content":{"rendered":"<table border=\"0\" summary=\"Current Price and Fair Value Estimate\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Stock:<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><strong>Appen Ltd<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Exchange:<\/td>\n<td>ASX<\/td>\n<td>Symbol:<\/td>\n<td><strong>APX<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Date:<\/td>\n<td>05-Oct-22<\/td>\n<td>Latest price:<\/td>\n<td><strong>A$3.29<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Market Cap:<\/td>\n<td>$406 m<\/td>\n<td>Fair Value:<\/td>\n<td><strong>A$2.99<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Forward DY:<\/td>\n<td>3.16%<\/td>\n<td>Payback (Years):<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Financial Y\/E:<\/td>\n<td>31-Dec-22<\/td>\n<td>Rating:<\/td>\n<td><strong>HOLD<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Sector:<\/td>\n<td>Technology<\/td>\n<td>Industry:<\/td>\n<td>IT Services<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Investment Theme:<\/td>\n<td>Technology<\/td>\n<td>Macro Trends:<\/td>\n<td>A.I.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Summary<\/h2>\n<p>Appen (APX) is trading at a discount to our estimate of fair value. Our recommendation is HOLD in the current bear market.<\/p>\n<h2>Valuation<\/h2>\n<p>We reduced our fair value estimate for Appen (APX) by 74%, to A$2.99 per share, based on the following projections:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>real organic long-term growth of zero (formerly 15%);<\/li>\n<li>EBITDA margin of 12% (formerly 15%);<\/li>\n<li>capital expenditure of 5.2% of revenue (formerly 5.4%);<\/li>\n<li>working capital of 0.4% of revenue (formerly 0.6%); and<\/li>\n<li>an effective tax rate of 25%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We selected a payback period of 10 years to reflect the company&#8217;s small cap size and a competitive industry.<\/p>\n<h2>Business Profile<\/h2>\n<p>Appen provides quality data solutions and services for machine learning and artificial intelligence applications for technology companies, auto manufacturers and government agencies. The company&#8217;s business segments are Relevance; Speech &amp; Image and Others. Relevance generates the most revenue, providing annotated data used in search technology for improving the relevance and accuracy of search engines, social media applications, and e-commerce. Geographically, the majority of revenue is derived from the USA.<\/p>\n<h3>Performance<\/h3>\n<p>&#8220;Appen&#8217;s half year results reflect lower earnings due to challenging external operating and macro conditions, resulting in weaker digital advertising demand and a slowdown in spending by some major customers&#8230;&#8221; (1H FY22)<\/p>\n<p>FY22 EBITDA margin is expected to be materially lower than FY21.<\/p>\n<h3>Capital structure<\/h3>\n<p>APX has net cash (after deducting capitalized leases) of $33 million.<\/p>\n<h4>Disclosure<\/h4>\n<p>Staff of The Patient Investor may directly or indirectly own shares in the above company.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock: Appen Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: APX Date: 05-Oct-22 Latest price: A$3.29 Market Cap: $406 m Fair Value: A$2.99 Forward DY: 3.16% Payback (Years): N\/A Financial Y\/E: 31-Dec-22 Rating: HOLD Sector: Technology Industry: IT Services Investment Theme: Technology Macro Trends: A.I. Summary Appen (APX) is trading at a discount to our estimate of fair value. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Appen Ltd (APX)&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3799],"tags":[5658],"class_list":["post-37932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asx-growth","tag-appen-ltd-apx"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Appen Ltd (APX) - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Appen Ltd (APX) - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock: Appen Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: APX Date: 05-Oct-22 Latest price: A$3.29 Market Cap: $406 m Fair Value: A$2.99 Forward DY: 3.16% Payback (Years): N\/A Financial Y\/E: 31-Dec-22 Rating: HOLD Sector: Technology Industry: IT Services Investment Theme: Technology Macro Trends: A.I. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Summary Appen (APX) is trading at a discount to our estimate of fair value. &hellip; Continue reading \"Appen Ltd (APX)\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2022-10-05T02:06:24+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-10-05T02:08:52+00:00","author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Appen Ltd (APX)","datePublished":"2022-10-05T02:06:24+00:00","dateModified":"2022-10-05T02:08:52+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/"},"wordCount":278,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["Appen Ltd (APX)"],"articleSection":["Australian Growth"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/","name":"Appen Ltd (APX) - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2022-10-05T02:06:24+00:00","dateModified":"2022-10-05T02:08:52+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/appen-ltd-apx\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Appen Ltd (APX)"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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Despite this, we have not added APX to our model portfolio, or issued a buy signal, because of its market\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":29844,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/10\/australian-growth-performance-at-30-november-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":37932,"position":1},"title":"Australian Growth: Performance at Nov-2021","author":"Andy","date":"December 10, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian Growth portfolio performance since inception on 1 July 2018 is set out below. We expect to hold most growth stocks for 5 to 10 years. Individual Stocks The portfolio has a sizable allocation to gold & precious metals (17% at 30-Nov-2021). We expect rising inflation and increasingly negative real\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth Performance&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth Performance","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/australian-growth-performance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian Growth Annualized Performance 1-Jul-2018 to 30-Nov-2021: Portfolio 4.99%, ASX 200 Accumulation Index 8.79%","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/perf-2021-11-aus.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/perf-2021-11-aus.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/perf-2021-11-aus.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41485,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/03\/australian-growth-performance-mar-2023\/","url_meta":{"origin":37932,"position":2},"title":"Australian Growth: Performance Mar-2023","author":"Andy","date":"April 3, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian Growth portfolio performance since inception on July 1, 2018 is set out below. We expect to hold most growth stocks for 5 to 10 years. Individual Stocks Past Performance Hypothetical $1 million invested in the Australian Growth portfolio on July 1, 2018: Performance Notes: Performance is calculated in Australian\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth Performance&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth Performance","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/australian-growth-performance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian Growth Past Allocations","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/allocations-2023-03-aus-history.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/allocations-2023-03-aus-history.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/allocations-2023-03-aus-history.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/allocations-2023-03-aus-history.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/allocations-2023-03-aus-history.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/allocations-2023-03-aus-history.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19620,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/15\/asx-leading-sectors\/","url_meta":{"origin":37932,"position":3},"title":"ASX Leading Sectors","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 broke resistance at 6800, signaling a fresh advance. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect would strengthen the bull signal, confirming a fresh advance. At the same time, fundamentals are distinctly bearish, with falling retail sales and dwindling GDP growth. So, what sectors are driving\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18264,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/24\/xero-deep-in-overvalued-territory-xro\/","url_meta":{"origin":37932,"position":4},"title":"Xero deep in overvalued territory (XRO)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 24, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"From Morningstar today: \"Cloud-based accounting software firm Xero has booked a strong result but the WAAAX club member remains deep in overvalued territory, says Morningstar. Xero this week reported a solid first half 2019 result, which included a 36 per cent boost in revenue and a 31 per cent jump\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":37620,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/20\/hub24-ltd-hub-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":37932,"position":5},"title":"Hub24 Ltd (HUB)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Hub24 Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: HUB Date: 20-Sep-22 Latest price: A$22.58 Market Cap: $1.8 bn Fair Value: 15.49 Forward DY: 1.12% Payback (Years): 12 Financial Y\/E: 30-Jun-22 Rating: HOLD Sector: Financial Industry: Capital Markets Investment Theme: LT Growth Macro Trends: Digital Growth Summary Hub24 Ltd (HUB) is trading at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37932","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37932"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37932\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37935,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37932\/revisions\/37935"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}