{"id":37448,"date":"2022-09-14T05:41:36","date_gmt":"2022-09-14T05:41:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=37448"},"modified":"2022-09-15T22:41:21","modified_gmt":"2022-09-15T22:41:21","slug":"cpi-shock-upsets-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/14\/cpi-shock-upsets-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"CPI shock upsets markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The consumer price index (CPI) dipped to 8.25% (seasonally adjusted) for the 12 months to August but disappointed stock and bond markets who were anticipating a sharp fall.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-cpi.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 fell 4.3% to test support at 3900. Follow-through below 3650 would confirm earlier bear market signals.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Services CPI &#8212; which has minimal exposure to producer prices and supply chains &#8212; climbed to 6.08%. Rising services costs indicate that inflation is growing embedded in the economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-cpi-services.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI Services\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Fueled by strong growth in average hourly earnings.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-cpi-wages.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI &amp; Wage Rates\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But it is not only services that present a problem.<\/p>\n<p>Food prices are growing above 10% p.a. &#8212; signaling hardship for low income-earners.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-cpi-food.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI Food\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The heavily-weighted shelter component &#8212; almost one-third of total CPI &#8212; climbed to 6.25%. We expect further increases as CPI shelter lags actual home prices &#8212; represented by the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (pink) on the chart below &#8212; by 6 to 12 months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-cpi-shelter.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI Shelter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>CPI energy is still high, at 23.91% for the 12 months to August, but the index has fallen steeply over the past two months (July-August).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-cpi-energy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI Energy\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The decline is likely to continue until the mid-term elections in November, as the US government releases crude from its strategic reserves (SPR) in order to suppress fuel prices.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-spr.png?resize=525%2C534&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"SPR Levels\" width=\"525\" height=\"534\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The reduction in strategic reserves is unsustainable in the longer-term and reversal could deliver a nasty surprise for consumers in the new year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-spr2.png?resize=525%2C68&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"SPR Lowest since 1984\" width=\"525\" height=\"68\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Strong CPI growth for the 12-months to August warns that inflation will be difficult to contain. Services CPI at 6.08% also confirms that inflation is growing embedded in the economy.<\/p>\n<p>Energy costs are falling but this may be unsustainable. Releases from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) are likely to end after the mid-term elections in November.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed is way behind the curve, with the real Fed funds rate (FFR-CPI) at -5.92%, below the previous record low of -4.97% from 1975.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-ffr-cpi.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real Fed Funds Rate (FFR-CPI)\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We expect interest rates to rise &#8220;higher for longer.&#8221; A 75 basis-point hike is almost certain at next weeks&#8217; FOMC meeting (September 20-21).<\/p>\n<p>Long-term Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year at 3.42%. Breakout above resistance at 3.50% is likely, signaling the end of a four decade-long secular bull trend in bonds.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-10yr.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Stocks and bonds are both falling, with the S&amp;P 500 down 18.0% year-to-date compared to -25.4% for TLT.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-13-spx-tlt.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT)\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The best short-term haven is cash.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The consumer price index (CPI) dipped to 8.25% (seasonally adjusted) for the 12 months to August but disappointed stock and bond markets who were anticipating a sharp fall. The S&amp;P 500 fell 4.3% to test support at 3900. Follow-through below 3650 would confirm earlier bear market signals. Services CPI &#8212; which has minimal exposure to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/14\/cpi-shock-upsets-markets\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;CPI shock upsets markets&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,46,10,13,34],"tags":[70,5301,854,5223,5335,5631,5224,1828,5632],"class_list":["post-37448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-housing-economy","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index","tag-cpi","tag-cpi-energy","tag-cpi-food","tag-cpi-services","tag-cpi-shelter","tag-inflation","tag-strategic-petroleum-reserve-spr"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CPI shock upsets markets - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CPI shock upsets markets - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The consumer price index (CPI) dipped to 8.25% (seasonally adjusted) for the 12 months to August but disappointed stock and bond markets who were anticipating a sharp fall. The S&amp;P 500 fell 4.3% to test support at 3900. Follow-through below 3650 would confirm earlier bear market signals. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-9K0","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":38106,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/no-cpi-relief-in-sight\/","url_meta":{"origin":37448,"position":0},"title":"No CPI relief in sight","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 13, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"CPI fell by a disappointing 0.03% -- from 8.25% in August to 8.22% in September -- signaling no let up in the Fed's fierce rate hikes as they struggle to get inflation under control. Energy was not a contributor, with CPI Energy falling to 19.9%, but is likely to face\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Inflation&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Inflation","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/inflation-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-14-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-14-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-14-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44643,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/13\/cpi-inflation-still-lurks\/","url_meta":{"origin":37448,"position":1},"title":"CPI: Inflation still lurks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 13, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CPI kicked up in August-September due to a surge in gasoline prices but these are excluded from core CPI which continues downwards. Monthly figures show not only CPI rising -- at an annualized rate of 4.75% -- but core as well, at a slightly lower annualized rate of 3.88%. Monthly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-13-cpi-core-annual.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-13-cpi-core-annual.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-13-cpi-core-annual.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50941,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/11\/cpi-spoils-the-party\/","url_meta":{"origin":37448,"position":2},"title":"CPI spoils the party","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 11, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 3.5% in March, from a low of 3.1% in January 2024. Core CPI increased slightly to 3.8% but excludes energy which is the largest contributor to price increases. Monthly CPI increases have been trending up since October 2023, with annualized rates of 4.5%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-10-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61944,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/12\/low-cpi-but-stocks-hesitant-as-us-iran-tensions-flare\/","url_meta":{"origin":37448,"position":3},"title":"Low CPI but stocks hesitant as US-Iran tensions flare","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 12, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Stocks remain cautious despite low May CPI inflation Oil prices jumped on escalating tensions in the Middle East The dollar continues to test long-term support, threatening another decline Gold is again testing resistance at $3,400 per ounce The S&P 500 remains tentative due to uncertainty over trade policy, the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-11-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-11-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-11-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60931,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/13\/cpi-causes-a-sharp-rise-in-10-year-treasury-yields\/","url_meta":{"origin":37448,"position":4},"title":"CPI causes a sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 13, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A rise in CPI to 3.0% caused a sharp increase in the 10-year Treasury yield and a corresponding fall in the S&P 500 despite ultra-easy financial market conditions. Consumer Prices Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2.0% target. The January 2025 BLS report shows that CPI increased by 3.0% over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-12-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-12-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-12-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63405,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/19\/dont-believe-the-november-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":37448,"position":5},"title":"Don&#8217;t believe the November CPI","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 19, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Core CPI growth slowed to 2.6% for the 12 months to November, according to the latest CPI report. However, the report should not be trusted. Core CPI growth fell to 2.6% for the 12 months to November, according to the latest BLS report, compared to 3.0% in September.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-18-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-18-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-18-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37448"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37448\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37476,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37448\/revisions\/37476"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}