{"id":36695,"date":"2022-08-24T04:36:13","date_gmt":"2022-08-24T04:36:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=36695"},"modified":"2022-08-25T00:45:15","modified_gmt":"2022-08-25T00:45:15","slug":"optimism-bias","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/24\/optimism-bias\/","title":{"rendered":"Optimism bias"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>As humans, we are programmed to assume our solutions will work. It is an important evolutionary trait. The military solution to this optimism bias is to assert deductive reasoning and the arrangement of a reserve capacity, to compensate when systems fail, resources run out, or solutions are exhausted&#8230;..<\/p>\n<p>~ <a href=\"https:\/\/engelsbergideas.com\/notebook\/human-behaviour-will-still-determine-who-wins-wars\/\">Rob Johnson<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Comment: The equivalent for investors, to maintaining a reserve capacity, is position-sizing: never bet so much on any one trade that an adverse outcome, or string of adverse outcomes, would affect your ability to keep investing\/trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As humans, we are programmed to assume our solutions will work. It is an important evolutionary trait. The military solution to this optimism bias is to assert deductive reasoning and the arrangement of a reserve capacity, to compensate when systems fail, resources run out, or solutions are exhausted&#8230;.. ~ Rob Johnson Comment: The equivalent for &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/24\/optimism-bias\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Optimism bias&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"quote","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[5589],"class_list":["post-36695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-quote","hentry","category-the-big-picture","tag-optimism-bias","post_format-post-format-quote"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Optimism bias - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Optimism bias - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As humans, we are programmed to assume our solutions will work. It is an important evolutionary trait. The military solution to this optimism bias is to assert deductive reasoning and the arrangement of a reserve capacity, to compensate when systems fail, resources run out, or solutions are exhausted&#8230;.. ~ Rob Johnson Comment: The equivalent for &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Optimism bias&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/24\/optimism-bias\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-08-24T04:36:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-08-25T00:45:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/08\\\/24\\\/optimism-bias\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/08\\\/24\\\/optimism-bias\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Optimism bias\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-08-24T04:36:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-08-25T00:45:15+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/08\\\/24\\\/optimism-bias\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":89,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Optimism Bias\"],\"articleSection\":[\"The Big Picture\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/08\\\/24\\\/optimism-bias\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/08\\\/24\\\/optimism-bias\\\/\",\"name\":\"Optimism bias - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-08-24T04:36:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-08-25T00:45:15+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/08\\\/24\\\/optimism-bias\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/08\\\/24\\\/optimism-bias\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/08\\\/24\\\/optimism-bias\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Optimism bias\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Casey at WSJ interviews HSBC group chief economist Stephen King, author of When the Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence: Mr. King\u2019s thesis..... is that we in the West are in line for a shock when we discover that the high-growth rates to which we\u2019re accustomed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5853,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/26\/a-closer-look-gdp-data-the-big-picture\/","url_meta":{"origin":36695,"position":2},"title":"A Closer Look GDP Data &#124; The Big Picture","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 26, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"By Barry Ritholtz The GDP data this morning was a deep sigh of relief for those people who fear a recession may be coming. I don\u2019t have that sense of relief. Perhaps its my own bias, but the details of the GDP report reveal not an organic growth period in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13861,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/18\/eliminating-emotional-bias\/","url_meta":{"origin":36695,"position":3},"title":"Eliminating emotional bias","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 18, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Selling pressure from the September quarter-end is now abating. Although we may see further tests of support, this is likely to be followed by a surge in buying from long-term investors. At which point you can congratulate yourself for sticking to your position and not succumbing to temptation to cut\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Momentum Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Momentum Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/momentum-investing-2\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63013,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/05\/economic-optimism-plunges\/","url_meta":{"origin":36695,"position":4},"title":"Economic Optimism Plunges","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Economic optimism fell below the 2020 low at the height of the pandemic. Consumer sentiment weakened, as the RealClearMarkets\/TIPP Economic Optimism Index plunged 9.1% from 48.3 in October to 43.9 in November. The reading reflects a massive plunge in consumer confidence since the December 2024 peak at 54.0,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RealClearMarkets\/TIPP Economic Optimism Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-04-tipp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-04-tipp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-04-tipp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-04-tipp.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11409,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/12\/08\/economics-is-just-politics-masquerading-as-science-pragmatic-capitalism\/","url_meta":{"origin":36695,"position":5},"title":"Economics is just politics masquerading as science | Pragmatic Capitalism","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 8, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"From Cullen Roche: ....much of economics is just politics masquerading as science In an earlier blog, Roche discusses the reasons for this (emphasis added): Most of economics involves conforming a political bias with a world view. \u00a0For instance, most Keynesians start with government spending and taxing, how those government policies\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economic Theory&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economic Theory","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/economic-theory\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36695","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36695"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36695\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36718,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36695\/revisions\/36718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36695"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36695"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36695"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}