{"id":36579,"date":"2022-08-20T05:33:56","date_gmt":"2022-08-20T05:33:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=36579"},"modified":"2022-08-21T22:31:04","modified_gmt":"2022-08-21T22:31:04","slug":"base-case-global-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/20\/base-case-global-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Base case: global recession"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Treasury yield curve is flattening, with the 10-year\/3-month yield differential plunging sharply, to a current 0.24%. Another 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting is expected to drive the 3-month T-Bill discount rate above the 10-year yield, the negative spread warning of a deep recession in the next 6 to 18 months (subsequent reversal to a positive spread would signal that recession is imminent<\/a>).<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 is retracing to test short-term support at 4200. Breach would warn of another decline, while follow-through below 3650 would signal the second downward leg of a bear market.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

21-Day Volatility troughs above 1% (red arrows) continue to warn of elevated risk.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Metals Index is in a primary down-trend, warning of a global recession.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

Supported by a similar primary down-trend on Copper, the most prescient of base metals.<\/p>\n

\"Copper\"<\/p>\n

Brent crude below $100 also warns of an economic contraction. Goldman Sachs project that crude oil will reach $135 per barrel this Winter, while Ed Morse at Citi says that WTI Light Crude will likely remain below $90 per barrel. Obviously, the former foresees an economic recovery, while the latter sees an extended contraction. Of the two, Morse has the best track in the industry.<\/p>\n

\"Brent<\/p>\n

Natural gas prices are climbing.<\/p>\n

\"Natural<\/p>\n

Especially in Europe, where Russia is attempting to choke the European economy.<\/p>\n

\"Russia:<\/p>\n

Causing Germany’s producer price index to spike to 37.2% (year-on-year growth).<\/p>\n

\"EU:<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Our base case is a global recession. A soft landing is unlikely unless the Fed does a sharp pivot, Russia stops trying to throttle European gas, and China goes all-in on its beleaguered property sector. That won’t address any of the underlying problems but would kick the can down the road for another year or two.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Treasury yield curve is flattening, with the 10-year\/3-month yield differential plunging sharply, to a current 0.24%. Another 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting is expected to drive the 3-month T-Bill discount rate above the 10-year yield, the negative spread warning of a deep recession in the next 6 to 18 … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Base case: global recession”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5402,4738,44,34],"tags":[495,815,5434,5403,5586,3006,3010,3726],"class_list":["post-36579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-base-metals","category-copper","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-brent-crude","tag-copper","tag-dj-industrial-metals-index-bim","tag-european-gas","tag-european-ppi","tag-russia","tag-sp-500","tag-yield-differential"],"yoast_head":"\nBase case: global recession - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Base case: global recession - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Treasury yield curve is flattening, with the 10-year\/3-month yield differential plunging sharply, to a current 0.24%. 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The only exception is the 2020 pandemic. Nymex Light Crude adjusted by CPI Nymex Light Crude now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Base Metals"","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex Light Crude adjusted by CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-crude-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38236,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/20\/important-recession-warning\/","url_meta":{"origin":36579,"position":1},"title":"Important recession warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"We have had a number of major indicators warning of a bear market over the year, with the S&P 500 falling by more than 20%, completing a Dow Theory reversal, and 100-day Momentum holding below zero. On the recession front, GDP recorded two quarters of negative growth -- a useful\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35001,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/02\/signs-of-a-global-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":36579,"position":2},"title":"Global recession warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 2, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Copper broke primary support at $9,000 per metric ton, signaling a bear market. Known as \"Dr Copper\" because of its prescient ability to predict the direction of the global economy, copper's sharp fall warns of a global recession dead ahead. The Dow Jones Industrial Metals Index broke support at 175,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Base Metals"","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Copper (S1)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-copper.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-copper.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-copper.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-copper.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41984,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/06\/focus-on-capital-preservation\/","url_meta":{"origin":36579,"position":3},"title":"Focus on capital preservation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 continues to test resistance between 4200 and 4300. Breakout would be a strong bull signal. The rally is led by the big five technology companies, with Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL) leading the advance. The S&P 500 equal-weighted index is less sanguine, with another\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Base Metals"","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-05-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44799,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/21\/here-comes-trouble\/","url_meta":{"origin":36579,"position":4},"title":"Here comes trouble","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 21, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is trending lower, testing support at 4200. This still looks like a secondary correction. But the equal-weighted S&P 500 index ($IQX) warns of trouble ahead, having broken primary support at 5600. A Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Follow-through below 5500 would confirm\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36038,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/01\/negative-yield-curves-and-market-timing\/","url_meta":{"origin":36579,"position":5},"title":"Negative yield curves and market timing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-Year\/3-Month Yield Differential is plunging towards zero. An inverted yield curve is one of the most reliable indicators of a coming recession. The 10-Year\/2-Year is already below zero but is less reliable. We prefer using the 3-Month T-Bill rate as it is a more accurate indication of Fed monetary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year\/2-Year Yield Differential","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36579"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36579\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36581,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36579\/revisions\/36581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}