{"id":35558,"date":"2022-07-07T03:51:26","date_gmt":"2022-07-07T03:51:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=35558"},"modified":"2022-07-07T06:13:56","modified_gmt":"2022-07-07T06:13:56","slug":"ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/07\/ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls\/","title":{"rendered":"Ed Morse | Oil will fall to $85 per barrel"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Citi&#8217;s Ed Morse says that supply is growing faster than expected, while demand is contracting as recession fears grow. His base case is that crude will fall to $85 per barrel.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/QXhRRXRayUw?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Citi&#8217;s Ed Morse says that supply is growing faster than expected, while demand is contracting as recession fears grow. His base case is that crude will fall to $85 per barrel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[5531,2527],"class_list":["post-35558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","tag-ed-morse","tag-nymex-light-crude"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ed Morse | Oil will fall to $85 per barrel - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ed Morse | Oil will fall to $85 per barrel - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Citi&#8217;s Ed Morse says that supply is growing faster than expected, while demand is contracting as recession fears grow. His base case is that crude will fall to $85 per barrel.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/07\/ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-07-07T03:51:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-07-07T06:13:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/07\\\/07\\\/ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/07\\\/07\\\/ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Ed Morse | Oil will fall to $85 per barrel\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-07-07T03:51:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-07-07T06:13:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/07\\\/07\\\/ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":42,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Ed Morse\",\"Nymex Light Crude\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/07\\\/07\\\/ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/07\\\/07\\\/ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls\\\/\",\"name\":\"Ed Morse | Oil will fall to $85 per barrel - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-07-07T03:51:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-07-07T06:13:56+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/07\\\/07\\\/ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/07\\\/07\\\/ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/07\\\/07\\\/ed-morse-oil-supply-growing-while-demand-falls\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Ed Morse | Oil will fall to $85 per barrel\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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It appears there is \"ample supply in the market for us to not have a big impact from China coming back.\"","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":44449,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/03\/crude-plunges-more-than-five-dollars\/","url_meta":{"origin":35558,"position":1},"title":"Crude plunges more than five dollars","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 3, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Brent crude plunged more than $5.00 per barrel yesterday, testing secondary support at $90. The fall was triggered by weak Chinese economic data: Chinese industrial production rose by 3.7% in July year over year, official data showed on Tuesday. The reading was below estimates of a 4.4% increase and slowing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-02-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-02-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-02-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36579,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/20\/base-case-global-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":35558,"position":2},"title":"Base case: global recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Treasury yield curve is flattening, with the 10-year\/3-month yield differential plunging sharply, to a current 0.24%. Another 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting is expected to drive the 3-month T-Bill discount rate above the 10-year yield, the negative spread warning of a deep recession in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year & minus 3-Month Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11949,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/17\/crude-where-next\/","url_meta":{"origin":35558,"position":3},"title":"Crude: Where next?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 17, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Nymex Light Crude plotted against CPI gives an historical perspective on current crude prices: high prior to China's entry into the global energy market, but low relative to prices since then. Expect strong support at the 2008 low. Has fracking permanently suppressed oil prices, or will production dwindle over time\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Light Crude and Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-18-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-18-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-18-crude-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31695,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/27\/bull-market-or-slow-motion-train-wreck\/","url_meta":{"origin":35558,"position":4},"title":"Bull market or slow-motion train wreck?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 27, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term Treasury yields are climbing as the Fed turns hawkish. iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) plunged as yields climb. The Fed may be talking up their hawkish intentions but actions speak louder than words. They are way behind the curve, with the real Fed funds rate the most\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"20+ Years Treasury Bond iShares ETF","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-25-tlt.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-25-tlt.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-25-tlt.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-25-tlt.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13755,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/12\/01\/crude-oil-a-zero-sum-game-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":35558,"position":5},"title":"Crude oil: A zero-sum game?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 1, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe current fall in price does nothing to offset the squeeze on the total economy from rising costs,\u201d Grantham writes. \u201cIt merely transfers massive amounts of income from one subgroup (oil producers) to another (oil consumers), in a largely zero-sum game....\u201d[Business Insider] The above quote from Jeremy Grantham made me\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35558"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35558\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35572,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35558\/revisions\/35572"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}