{"id":34374,"date":"2022-06-11T09:53:48","date_gmt":"2022-06-11T09:53:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=34374"},"modified":"2022-06-13T12:15:26","modified_gmt":"2022-06-13T12:15:26","slug":"larry-summers-fed-will-require-same-disinflation-as-under-volcker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/06\/11\/larry-summers-fed-will-require-same-disinflation-as-under-volcker\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry Summers: Fed needs same disinflation as under Volcker"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Larry Summers highlights a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w30116\">paper from the NBER<\/a> regarding measurement of CPI since the 1980s. Changes in how cost of housing is measured have lowered core CPI relative to the methodology used prior to the early 1980s (blue line below). Applying the current methodology (red line) retrospectively suggests that comparable core CPI is closer to the Volcker era.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-10-summers.png?resize=525%2C445&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Larry Summers\" width=\"525\" height=\"445\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Summers continues:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;New paper shows past and present CPI inflation are more similar than official data suggests. When correcting for change in how housing inflation is measured, we find a return to target core inflation will require the same disinflation as achieved under Volcker.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Larry Summers highlights a paper from the NBER regarding measurement of CPI since the 1980s. Changes in how cost of housing is measured have lowered core CPI relative to the methodology used prior to the early 1980s (blue line below). Applying the current methodology (red line) retrospectively suggests that comparable core CPI is closer to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/06\/11\/larry-summers-fed-will-require-same-disinflation-as-under-volcker\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Larry Summers: Fed needs same disinflation as under Volcker&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,13,34],"tags":[854,5503,1828,4753,2619],"class_list":["post-34374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-cpi","tag-disinflation","tag-inflation","tag-larry-summers","tag-paul-volcker"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Larry Summers: Fed needs same disinflation as under Volcker - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Larry Summers: Fed needs same disinflation as under Volcker - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Larry Summers highlights a paper from the NBER regarding measurement of CPI since the 1980s. Changes in how cost of housing is measured have lowered core CPI relative to the methodology used prior to the early 1980s (blue line below). Applying the current methodology (red line) retrospectively suggests that comparable core CPI is closer to &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Larry Summers: Fed needs same disinflation as under Volcker&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/06\/11\/larry-summers-fed-will-require-same-disinflation-as-under-volcker\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-06-11T09:53:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-06-13T12:15:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-10-summers.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/06\\\/11\\\/larry-summers-fed-will-require-same-disinflation-as-under-volcker\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/06\\\/11\\\/larry-summers-fed-will-require-same-disinflation-as-under-volcker\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Larry Summers: Fed needs same disinflation as under Volcker\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-06-11T09:53:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-06-13T12:15:26+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/06\\\/11\\\/larry-summers-fed-will-require-same-disinflation-as-under-volcker\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":111,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/06\\\/11\\\/larry-summers-fed-will-require-same-disinflation-as-under-volcker\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2022\\\/2022-06-10-summers.png\",\"keywords\":[\"CPI\",\"Disinflation\",\"Inflation\",\"Larry Summers\",\"Paul Volcker\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; 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Core CPI eased slightly, to 5.5% for the 12 months to April, from 5.6% in March. Monthly core CPI grew 0.39%, or 4.7% annualized. It seems that inflation is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-10-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-10-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-10-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24380,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/04\/commodities-warn-of-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":34374,"position":1},"title":"Commodities warn of inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 4, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Former Fed chairman Paul Volcker used price changes in a basket of commodities as a surrogate for inflation. In his book Return to Prosperity economist Arthur Laffer describes Volcker's approach: In the early 1980s under gifted Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker (1979-87), the United States once again returned to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":37614,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/20\/will-a-recession-kill-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":34374,"position":2},"title":"Will a recession kill inflation?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"There is plenty of evidence to suggest that recessions cause a sharp fall in the consumer price index. Alfonso Peccatiello recently analyzed US recessions over the past century and concluded that they caused an average drop in CPI of 6.8%. A recession no doubt reduces inflation but it does not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"MacroAlf: CPI & Recessions","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-20-cpi-recessions.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-20-cpi-recessions.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-20-cpi-recessions.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41261,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/16\/inflation-bounces-back\/","url_meta":{"origin":34374,"position":3},"title":"Inflation Bounces Back","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 16, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index (CPI) declined to 6.0% for the 12 months to February but core CPI held steady at 5.5%. What is concerning that monthly core CPI is climbing, reaching an annualized rate of 5.4% (0.45% pm) in February. This echoes core PCE inflation -- the Fed's favorite measure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43397,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/11\/cpi-falls-but-fed-unlikely-to-relent\/","url_meta":{"origin":34374,"position":4},"title":"CPI falls but Fed unlikely to relent","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 11, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CPI fell to 3.1% for the 12 months to July, while core CPI (excluding food & energy) eased to 4.9%. What is most encouraging is that the last two months registered annualized growth of close to the Fed's 2.0% target. Food CPI declined steeply, to 4.8% for the 12 months\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":39560,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/14\/will-slowing-inflation-force-the-fed-to-halt-rate-hikes\/","url_meta":{"origin":34374,"position":5},"title":"Will slowing inflation force the Fed to halt rate hikes?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 14, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index eased to 7.1% growth for the 12 months to November, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) grew by 6.0%. The prospect of softer inflation, spurred a sharp fall in the 10-year Treasury yield, followed by retracement to test resistance at 3.50%. The primary contributor to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-13-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-13-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-13-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34374"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34374\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34422,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34374\/revisions\/34422"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}