{"id":3281,"date":"2012-01-11T22:05:45","date_gmt":"2012-01-12T03:05:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=3281"},"modified":"2012-01-11T22:05:45","modified_gmt":"2012-01-12T03:05:45","slug":"westpac-follow-that-flow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/westpac-follow-that-flow\/","title":{"rendered":"Westpac: Follow that Flow"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote style=\"background-color:beige;\">\n<ul>\n<li>The US recovery from the 2007\u20132009 recession has been particularly disappointing, in part due to the moribund state of the housing market.<\/li>\n<li>The state of the housing market is in part a symptom of excess leverage, the US\u2019 core concern.<\/li>\n<li>Excess leverage will continue to weigh on US economic growth, restricting it to a sub-trend pace for the foreseeable future, resulting in a need for further QE.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8230;.. Given the size of the US\u2019 debt stock and the lack of assets set aside to fund future pension liabilities, it is logical to conclude that above-trend growth conditions are a long way off. In the meantime, households and government authorities will remain heavily exposed to any further deterioration in conditions, whether it be domestic or foreign (i.e. Europe) in origin.<\/p>\n<p>QE3 will be needed merely to help protect against a further deterioration in economic conditions. Such a program would have to be large in scale and in coverage, likely covering USTs, mortgage securities and, with time, the existing debt of SLGs.<\/p>\n<p>A final point: the degree of easing required to alleviate the financial stresses the US economy currently faces (and hopefully at least maintain the current level of activity) has not been recognised by markets. Given the precarious state of Europe, the market will likely take its time in coming to terms with the US\u2019 own concerns. But, when the spotlight falls on the US, we expect a greater awareness of US credit risk and the absence of near-term growth prospects will see yields rise and the US dollar fall.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US recovery from the 2007\u20132009 recession has been particularly disappointing, in part due to the moribund state of the housing market. The state of the housing market is in part a symptom of excess leverage, the US\u2019 core concern. Excess leverage will continue to weigh on US economic growth, restricting it to a sub-trend &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/westpac-follow-that-flow\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Westpac: Follow that Flow&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,34],"tags":[993,2828],"class_list":["post-3281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-debt-levels","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-deleveraging","tag-qe3"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Westpac: Follow that Flow - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Westpac: Follow that Flow - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The US recovery from the 2007\u20132009 recession has been particularly disappointing, in part due to the moribund state of the housing market. The state of the housing market is in part a symptom of excess leverage, the US\u2019 core concern. 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But the Fed also faces political constraints, and will do too little, and move too late, to help the economy significantly. Moreover, a vocal minority on the Fed\u2019s rate-setting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4776,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/06\/economists-react-how-likely-is-qe3-following-jobs-data-wsj\/","url_meta":{"origin":3281,"position":1},"title":"Economists React: How Likely Is QE3 Following Jobs Data? &#8211; WSJ","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"CAPITAL ECONOMICS: QE3 will depend on second-quarter GDP and July\u2019s ISM data because the jobs report was not bad enough to make QE3 \u201ca done deal.\u201d Both GDP and ISM numbers will be released just ahead of the Fed\u2019s next policy meeting. via Economists React: How Likely Is QE3 Following\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2618,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/14\/private-sector-debt-growth-warns-of-anemic-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":3281,"position":2},"title":"Private sector debt growth warns of anemic recovery","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 14, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The cause of current anemic GDP growth is evident from the recently-released Z1 Flow of Funds report. GDP recovery from 2008\/2009 is accompanied by only a modest rise in Domestic (Non-Financial) Debt -- which is now constraining further growth. Domestic (Non-Financial) Debt is made up of Government Debt and Private\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3349,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/26\/the-winners-and-losers-of-qe3-macrobusiness-com-au\/","url_meta":{"origin":3281,"position":3},"title":"The winners and losers of QE3 &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 26, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. That\u2019s a clear declaration of intended QE3 if conditions are met. The two conditions are price\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":913,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/22\/dollar-surges-as-fed-nixes-qe3\/","url_meta":{"origin":3281,"position":4},"title":"Dollar surges as Fed nixes QE3","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 22, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The US Dollar Index surged after the latest FOMC statement avoided any mention of additional purchases of Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Though they did leave the door ajar with their concluding paragraph: \u2026\u2026\u2026The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":479,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/the-way-forward\/","url_meta":{"origin":3281,"position":5},"title":"The way forward","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 29, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"There were plenty of central bankers and economists with glum faces at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week as speakers reviewed the challenges ahead. So far the global economy has not responded to various rescue plans, with GDP slowing and national debt rising across a whole slew of economies.Before we look\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;The Big Picture&quot;","block_context":{"text":"The Big Picture","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/the-big-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3281"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3281\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}