{"id":3275,"date":"2012-01-11T20:21:34","date_gmt":"2012-01-12T01:21:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=3275"},"modified":"2012-01-11T20:21:34","modified_gmt":"2012-01-12T01:21:34","slug":"greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Greg Mankiw&#8217;s Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>About a decade ago&#8230;.. I estimated the following simple formula for setting the federal funds rate:<\/p>\n<p>Federal funds rate = 8.5 + 1.4 Core inflation &#8211; Unemployment<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;.Eddy Elfenbein has recently replotted this equation. Here it is:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-Qj7KPuFin9k\/Tw2EtfAgIOI\/AAAAAAAABRg\/EZpAhyYI5FY\/s400\/mankiwrule.png?w=525\" alt=\"Fed Funds Rate compared to Mankiw Rule\" \/><\/p>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/gregmankiw.blogspot.com\/2012\/01\/liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over.html\">Greg Mankiw&#8217;s Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>About a decade ago&#8230;.. I estimated the following simple formula for setting the federal funds rate: Federal funds rate = 8.5 + 1.4 Core inflation &#8211; Unemployment &#8230;.Eddy Elfenbein has recently replotted this equation. Here it is: via Greg Mankiw&#8217;s Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[1353,2121],"class_list":["post-3275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-fed-funds-rate","tag-liquidity-trap"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Greg Mankiw&#039;s Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Greg Mankiw&#039;s Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"About a decade ago&#8230;.. I estimated the following simple formula for setting the federal funds rate: Federal funds rate = 8.5 + 1.4 Core inflation &#8211; Unemployment &#8230;.Eddy Elfenbein has recently replotted this equation. Here it is: via Greg Mankiw&#8217;s Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-01-12T01:21:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-Qj7KPuFin9k\/Tw2EtfAgIOI\/AAAAAAAABRg\/EZpAhyYI5FY\/s400\/mankiwrule.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Greg Mankiw&#8217;s Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-01-12T01:21:34+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/\"},\"wordCount\":54,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-Qj7KPuFin9k\/Tw2EtfAgIOI\/AAAAAAAABRg\/EZpAhyYI5FY\/s400\/mankiwrule.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Fed funds rate\",\"Liquidity trap\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/\",\"name\":\"Greg Mankiw's Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-Qj7KPuFin9k\/Tw2EtfAgIOI\/AAAAAAAABRg\/EZpAhyYI5FY\/s400\/mankiwrule.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-01-12T01:21:34+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-Qj7KPuFin9k\/Tw2EtfAgIOI\/AAAAAAAABRg\/EZpAhyYI5FY\/s400\/mankiwrule.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-Qj7KPuFin9k\/Tw2EtfAgIOI\/AAAAAAAABRg\/EZpAhyYI5FY\/s400\/mankiwrule.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Greg Mankiw&#8217;s Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Svensson describes the liquidity trap experienced by countries such as Japan and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero percent. If the nominal interest rate is initially\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":62984,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/30\/fed-cut-but-no-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":3275,"position":1},"title":"Fed cut, but no rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 30, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Fed cut its funds rate target by 25 basis points and will end QT on December 1. Fed Chair Jerome Powell doused expectations for a further rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, causing rates to drift higher. ADP weekly data indicates that private sector employment is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ADP Weekly Private Sector Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6217,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/18\/the-foolproof-way\/","url_meta":{"origin":3275,"position":2},"title":"The Foolproof Way","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 18, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"In his 2003 paper Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others Lars E.O. Svensson describes his Foolproof Way of escaping from a liquidity trap -- experienced by countries such as Japan, and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":45774,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/29\/fed-stealth-liquidity-may-presage-early-rate-cuts\/","url_meta":{"origin":3275,"position":3},"title":"Fed stealth liquidity may presage early rate cuts","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 29, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Commercial bank cash assets, representing reserves held at the Fed, reversed its down-trend after September 2022 -- when the UK gilt crisis occurred -- and is now edging higher, reflecting stealth liquidity support from the Fed and Treasury. Fed QT is reducing liquidity at the rate of $95 billion per\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Commercial Bank Reserves","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-28-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-28-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-28-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7711,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/06\/what-happened-to-the-liquidity-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":3275,"position":4},"title":"What happened to the liquidity trap?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 6, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Mark A Sadowski comments: In November 2012 the CBO estimated that the maximum level employment effect would be a decrease of about 200,000 jobs, 640,000 jobs (80% 0f combined payroll and UI effect of 800,000 jobs lost) and 800,000 jobs for the high income tax increase, payroll tax increase, and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63053,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/11\/gold-bear-trap-the-ai-illusion\/","url_meta":{"origin":3275,"position":5},"title":"Gold bear trap &#038; the AI illusion","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Gold recovered above $4,100 per ounce, signaling another test of $4,400. Silver similarly recovered above $50 per ounce. Bitcoin at 106K indicates improving liquidity. The S&P 500 also completed a bear trap, indicating another rally. A recent Stanford study suggests that the adoption of generative AI has had\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Artificial Intelligence (AI)&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Artificial Intelligence (AI)","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/artificial-intelligence-ai\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-10-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-10-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-10-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3275","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3275"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3275\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3275"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3275"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3275"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}