{"id":31540,"date":"2022-03-17T08:14:59","date_gmt":"2022-03-17T08:14:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=31540"},"modified":"2022-03-17T08:14:59","modified_gmt":"2022-03-17T08:14:59","slug":"sp-500-rallies-as-fed-tightens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/17\/sp-500-rallies-as-fed-tightens\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 rallies as Fed tightens"},"content":{"rendered":"

Stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 recovering above thew former primary support level at 4300. Follow-through above 4400 would be a short-term bull signal.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Markets were lifted by reports of progress on a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement — although that is unlikely to affect sanctions on Russia this year — while the Fed went ahead with “the most publicized quarter point rate hike in world history” according to Julian Brigden at MI2 Partners.<\/p>\n

FOMC<\/h2>\n

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its first interest rate increase in more than three years, an incremental salvo to address spiraling inflation without torpedoing economic growth. After keeping its benchmark interest rate anchored near zero since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said it will raise rates by a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points….. Fed officials indicated the rate increases will come with slower economic growth this year. Along with the rate hikes, the committee also penciled in increases at each of the six remaining meetings this year, pointing to a consensus funds rate of 1.9% by year\u2019s end. (CNBC<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Rate hikes are likely to continue at every meeting until the economy slows or the Fed breaks something — which is quite likely. To say the plumbing of the global financial system is complicated would be an understatement and we are already seeing reports of yield curves misbehaving (a negative yield curve warns of recession).<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve policymakers have made “excellent progress” on their plan for reducing the central bank\u2019s nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, and could finalize details at their next policy meeting in May, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday. Overall, he said, the plan will look “familiar” to when the Fed last reduced bond holdings between 2017 and 2019, “but it will be faster than the last time, and of course it\u2019s much sooner in the cycle than last time.” (Reuters<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The last time the Fed tried to shrink its balance sheet, between 2017 and 2019, it caused repo rates (SOFR) to explode in September 2019. The Fed was panicked into lending in the repo market and restarting QE, ending their QT experiment.<\/p>\n

\"SOFR\"<\/p>\n

QT<\/h2>\n

Equities are unlikely to be fazed by initial rate hikes but markets are highly sensitive to liquidity. A decline in the Fed’s balance sheet would be mirrored by a fall in M2 money supply.<\/p>\n

\"M2<\/p>\n

And a similar decline in stocks.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Ukraine & Russia<\/h2>\n

Unfortunately, Ukrainian and French officials poured cold water on prospects of an early ceasefire.<\/p>\n

\"Annmarie<\/p>\n

\"Neil<\/p>\n

\"Samuel<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Financial markets were correct not be alarmed by the prospect of Fed rate hikes. The real interest rate remains deeply negative. But commencement of quantitative tightening (QT) in May is likely to drain liquidity, causing stocks to decline.<\/p>\n

Relief over prospects of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and\/or any reductions in sanctions is premature.<\/p>\n

The bear market is likely to continue.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 recovering above thew former primary support level at 4300. Follow-through above 4400 would be a short-term bull signal. Markets were lifted by reports of progress on a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement — although that is unlikely to affect sanctions on Russia this year — while the Fed went ahead with … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500 rallies as Fed tightens”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[619,1352,1429,5423,2854,3006,3010,3521],"class_list":["post-31540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-ceasefire","tag-fed","tag-fomc","tag-quantitative-tightening-qt","tag-rate-hike","tag-russia","tag-sp-500","tag-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 rallies as Fed tightens - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 rallies as Fed tightens - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 recovering above thew former primary support level at 4300. 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FOMC minutes show the Fed is considering 50 basis point hikes at its next two meetings, while Chairman Jay Powell pays frequent homage to Paul Volcker. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-23-ffr-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-23-ffr-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-23-ffr-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-23-ffr-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30764,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/03\/brazil-and-russia-lead-fight-against-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":31540,"position":1},"title":"Brazil and Russia lead fight against inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"From Wolf Richter: The Bank of Brazil, on February 2, jacked up its policy rate by another 150 basis points, to 10.75%, the eighth hike in a row since March, totaling 875 basis points. The central bank said that the next rate hike might be smaller, on hopes that inflation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Africa & South America"","block_context":{"text":"Africa & South America","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/africa-south-america\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-03-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-03-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-03-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-03-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":33143,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/19\/fed-swimming-against-the-tide\/","url_meta":{"origin":31540,"position":2},"title":"Fed swimming against the tide","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 19, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed continues its hawkish stance on inflation: \u201cWhat we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we\u2019re going to keep pushing until we see that. If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of \u2018neutral,\u2019 we won\u2019t hesitate at all to do\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-cpi-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-cpi-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-cpi-ffr.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-cpi-ffr.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":46393,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/14\/dovish-fed-dollar-falls-gold-climbs\/","url_meta":{"origin":31540,"position":3},"title":"Dovish Fed, Dollar falls, Gold climbs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 14, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term Treasury yields plunged in response to a dovish Fed meeting which kept rates on hold, with a target range of 5.25% - 5.00%. Ten-year Treasury yields are now testing our target at 4.0%. Declining inflation and signs of labor market easing moved the FOMC to discard the additional rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-14-10y-666x451.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-14-10y-666x451.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-14-10y-666x451.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36579,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/20\/base-case-global-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":31540,"position":4},"title":"Base case: global recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Treasury yield curve is flattening, with the 10-year\/3-month yield differential plunging sharply, to a current 0.24%. Another 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting is expected to drive the 3-month T-Bill discount rate above the 10-year yield, the negative spread warning of a deep recession in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year & minus 3-Month Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36699,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/24\/fed-rate-hikes-start-to-bite\/","url_meta":{"origin":31540,"position":5},"title":"Fed rate hikes start to bite","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 24, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 reversed below former primary support at 4200, warning of another test of 3650. Momentum peaking at zero (red arrows) suggests a strong down-trend. Breach of 3650 would offer a target of 3000. S&P Flash US Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 45 in August, from 47.7\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31540"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31540\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31542,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31540\/revisions\/31542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}