{"id":30740,"date":"2022-02-03T01:49:20","date_gmt":"2022-02-03T01:49:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=30740"},"modified":"2022-02-03T01:58:57","modified_gmt":"2022-02-03T01:58:57","slug":"a-slow-motion-train-wreck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/03\/a-slow-motion-train-wreck\/","title":{"rendered":"A slow-motion train wreck"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>Facebook parent Meta&#8217;s shares fell 20% after hours as it said revenue growth will slow, partly because users were spending less time on lucrative services. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/meta-platforms-facebook-fb-q4-earnings-report-2021-11643762900\">WSJ<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-02-fb.jpg?resize=525%2C278&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Meta Platforms (FB)\" width=\"525\" height=\"278\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Facebook lost about half a million global daily users in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the previous quarter, according to the quarterly earnings report of Meta, its parent company. That might not seem like a major drop relative to its under 1.93 billion total daily active users, but it represents a low point for a metrics-driven company whose user base long grew at a rapid pace across its different apps. The statistic shows how Meta has struggled to stay relevant to younger users, many of whom are drawn to competing apps like TikTok. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/recode\/2022\/2\/2\/22915110\/facebook-meta-user-growth-decline-first-time-metaverse-mark-zuckerberg-tiktok-competition-earnings\">Vox<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Facebook\/Meta&#8217;s dissapointing performance is not an isolated problem. Tesla (TSLA), the darling of retail investors &#8212; trading at 22 times sales and 93 times forward earnings &#8212; is also staring into the abyss. Breaking primary support at 900 last week, TSLA quickly recovered &#8212; indicating a false break &#8212; but is again testing the 900 support level. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure. Breach of support at 900 for a second time would confirm a primary down-trend. Initial target for a decline would be 600 &#8212; a 50 per cent fall from its recent peak of 1200.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-02-tesla.png?resize=525%2C394&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Tesla (TSLA)\" width=\"525\" height=\"394\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thefelderreport.com\/2022\/02\/02\/still-extreme-levels-of-ridiculousness\/\">Jesse Felder<\/a> shows how precarious the market situation is, with the median price-to-sales ratio at a record 3.5 times. Compare that to the Dotcom bubble, with a peak of just 2.0.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-02-price-sales.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Median Price to Sales ratio\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Warren Buffett&#8217;s favorite market valuation metric of market-capitalization-to-GDP is not quite as alarming, when you compare to the Dotcom peak in 2000, but nevertheless sounds a grim warning.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-02-mktcap-gdp.png?resize=525%2C328&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Market Cap\/GDP\" width=\"525\" height=\"328\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We consider MarketCap\/GDP to be the most accurate long-term valuation metric available. By focusing on total stock market valuation relative to output, it avoids distortions caused by the financial trickery of stock buybacks and fluctuating profit margins caused by factors like the current supply chain issues.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>This is like watching a slow-motion train wreck. The worst I have seen in nearly forty years in financial markets. The Fed may be able to postpone a market crash by several months but the eventual outcome is inevitable. The draw-down has the potential to be truly eye-watering, overshadowing the Dotcom Crash and Global Financial Crisis.<\/p>\n<p>We are overweight Gold (including gold miners), defensive stocks, and key commodities and underweight high-multiple growth stocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Facebook parent Meta&#8217;s shares fell 20% after hours as it said revenue growth will slow, partly because users were spending less time on lucrative services. (WSJ) Facebook lost about half a million global daily users in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the previous quarter, according to the quarterly earnings report of Meta, its &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/03\/a-slow-motion-train-wreck\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;A slow-motion train wreck&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[1338,4676,5365,5366,4976],"class_list":["post-30740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-facebook","tag-market-cap-gdp","tag-meta-fb","tag-price-to-sales-ratio","tag-tesla-tsla"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A slow-motion train wreck - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A slow-motion train wreck - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Facebook parent Meta&#8217;s shares fell 20% after hours as it said revenue growth will slow, partly because users were spending less time on lucrative services. 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A favorite among retail traders, with more than 22 million funded accounts, trading boomed during the pandemic when stuck-at-home retail traders sought to trade with funds from government stimulus payments. Now stimulus is fading and the retail trading app faces\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15846,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/04\/structural-trends-and-affected-industries\/","url_meta":{"origin":30740,"position":1},"title":"Structural Trends and Affected Industries","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 4, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Discussion of major structural trends in the global economy and the impact they have on specific sectors or industries. A full list of identified trends is available at Structural Trends. I will focus each month on changes to existing trends, the latest statistics, and their impact on sectors or industries.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Investment Strategy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Investment Strategy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/investment-strategy-2\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":37815,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/29\/alphabet-inc-googl-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":30740,"position":2},"title":"Alphabet Inc (GOOGL)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 29, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Alphabet Inc Exchange: Nasdaq Symbol: \u00a0GOOGL Date: 28-Sep-22 Latest price: $100.05 Market Cap: $1.3 T Fair Value: $111.94 Forward DY: - Payback (Years): 13 Financial Y\/E: 31-Dec-22 Rating: HOLD Sector: Technology Industry: Internet Content & Information Investment Theme: Long-term Growth Structural Trends: Online Services Summary Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;International Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63007,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/ai-boom-then-bust\/","url_meta":{"origin":30740,"position":3},"title":"AI boom then bust","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting commentary from Jim Grant's newsletter: Easy as one, two, three: The parade of mega cap tech bond issues continued apace Monday, with Google parent Alphabet launching an eight-part deal totaling $17.5 billion, upsized from an originally planned $15 billion.... Coming on the heels of Meta\u2019s monster $30 billion offering\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Artificial Intelligence (AI)&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Artificial Intelligence (AI)","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/artificial-intelligence-ai\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Quarterly Capital Expenditure","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-capex.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-capex.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-capex.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-capex.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-capex.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20915,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/07\/08\/cargurus-inc-class-a-carg\/","url_meta":{"origin":30740,"position":4},"title":"CarGurus Inc Class A (CARG)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 8, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: CarGurus Inc Class A Exchange: Nasdaq Symbol: CARG Date: 7-Jul-20 Latest price: $26.75 USD Market Cap: $3.0 bn Fair Value: $27.86 Forward P\/E: 98.0 FV Payback (Years): 10 Forward Dividend Yield: None Debt\/Equity: Nil Financial Y\/E: 31-Dec-21 Rating: HOLD Sector: Technology Industry: Internet Services Investment Theme: LT Growth LT\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;International Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":58878,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/01\/a-bad-day-for-big-tech\/","url_meta":{"origin":30740,"position":5},"title":"A bad day for big tech","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Mega-cap technology stocks had a bad day on Thursday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) delivered solid results for the third quarter, but supply chain challenges and rising costs of AI-focused data center expansion marred their growth outlook. Microsoft (MSFT) shares slid 6% despite the software maker exceeding expectations in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Top 7 Technology Stocks","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-31-big7.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-31-big7.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-31-big7.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30740"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30745,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30740\/revisions\/30745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}