{"id":30325,"date":"2022-01-08T05:55:16","date_gmt":"2022-01-08T05:55:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=30325"},"modified":"2022-01-08T07:56:09","modified_gmt":"2022-01-08T07:56:09","slug":"never-waste-a-good-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/01\/08\/never-waste-a-good-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Never waste a good crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Russian Federation has amassed a large army on the border of Ukraine and threatens to invade unless the US and NATO make concessions including the withdrawal of forces from Eastern Europe, securing Moscow a broad sphere of influence. There has been much hand-wringing in Western media: will Putin invade or is this just a ruse designed to extract concessions?<\/p>\n

If we look past the uncertainty, it is clear that an increasingly over-confident Putin has entered a trap of his own making.<\/p>\n

The West is faced with an ultimatum: either concede or Russian forces will invade Ukraine.<\/p>\n

But every problem presents an opportunity.<\/p>\n

The more aggressive Russia becomes, the stronger NATO gets.<\/p>\n

Russian actions have united Western alliances, with even long-term neutrals Finland and Sweden, moving closer to NATO.\u00a0 Both Finnish and Swedish presidents reiterated their right to join NATO in response to the Russian ultimatum.<\/p>\n

Germany has long obstructed a stiffening of NATO defenses, increasing its vulnerability to Russian energy blackmail by shuttering nuclear power plants and supporting the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea. But opposition is growing. A recent poll shows that the percentage of Germans who trust Russia has fallen by 11% over the past two years:<\/p>\n

\"German<\/p>\n

Concessions are unlikely, simply because there is nothing to gain from them. Concessions by the US would weaken NATO and encourage the Kremlin to make even more outlandish demands in the future. Concessions by NATO without the US would produce a similar outcome.<\/p>\n

Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a strategic mistake.<\/p>\n

First, invasion would be a flagrant act of war, removing the cloak of deniability that has covered Russian operations in the Donbas region. A formal state of war would increase the flow of Western technology and weapons into Ukraine as Western leaders are required to openly acknowledge Russian aggression.<\/p>\n

Land invasions are costly in terms of both blood and treasure. The Russian army may eventually overrun the Ukrainians through the weight of forces and technological advantages. But Ukrainian armed forces have been in a protracted war in the East and are well-trained and equipped with modern anti-tank weapons, artillery and unmanned drones. The costs would be high.<\/p>\n

\"Turkey\u2019s<\/p>\n

Turkey\u2019s Bayraktar Unmanned Armed Combat Drone – Source: Ukrinform<\/p>\n

Where the Ukrainians are at a disadvantage is in air defenses and vulnerability to long-range missile attacks. But that window is closing.<\/p>\n

To stiffen Ukraine\u2019s ability to resist, the United States and NATO have dispatched teams in recent weeks to survey air defenses, logistics, communications and other essentials. The United States likely has also bolstered Ukraine\u2019s defenses against Russian cyberattacks and electronic warfare. (David Ignatius, Washington Post<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

An air campaign would also achieve little without a follow-up land invasion.<\/p>\n

Even if the Ukrainian forces are defeated, that is where the real problem starts. Occupation is a costly and morale-sapping exercise as the Soviets discovered in Afghanistan in the 1980s and the US discovered in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan (they’re slow learners). An insurgency negates the occupiers’ advantages in air power and technology, leading to a drawn-out campaign with no outcome.<\/p>\n

“You have the watches. We have the time.” ~ Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A Russian occupation force would require 20 combatants for every 1,000 Ukrainians, according to a formula devised by Rand Corp. analyst James Quinlivan<\/a> in 1995. That would translate into an a required Russian force of almost 900,000, illustrating the impracticality.<\/p>\n

We could expect a Russian occupation to be exceedingly brutal, along the lines of Syria, creating a humanitarian crisis and flooding the West with refugees. But that is only likely to harden resolve, marginalizing appeasers in the West, and increase support for the insurgents.<\/p>\n

The cost of an extended Russian campaign would deplete the Russian Treasury, even without increased sanctions. It would also escalate opposition within Russia, spurred by the high cost in lives and deteriorating living conditions. The result would threaten collapse of the Russian state in much the same way as the campaign in Afghanistan led to the eventual disintegration of the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The threat of armed invasion of Ukraine is a mistake. It is likely to strengthen resolve in the West and, if the threat is carried out, result in a long, protracted war in Ukraine. The cost in both blood and treasure would threaten to topple the Russian state.<\/p>\n

Russian overconfidence has led them into a trap. Thinly spread across a number of conflict zones, they are vulnerable to an escalation in insurgencies wherever they have “peace-keeping” occupation forces: Syria, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and now Kazakhstan. The cost to the West would be low but would exact a huge toll on the Kremlin, depleting their military and already-vulnerable financial resources.<\/p>\n

\u201cModeration in the pursuit of liberty is no virtue.\u201d
\n~\u00a0 George Crile, <\/span> Charlie Wilson’s War: The Extraordinary Story of How the Wildest Man in Congress and a Rogue CIA Agent Changed History <\/span><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Russian Federation has amassed a large army on the border of Ukraine and threatens to invade unless the US and NATO make concessions including the withdrawal of forces from Eastern Europe, securing Moscow a broad sphere of influence. There has been much hand-wringing in Western media: will Putin invade or is this just a … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Never waste a good crisis”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,29,33,34],"tags":[5343,2413,3006,3521,3570,3614],"class_list":["post-30325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-russia-former-ussr","category-the-big-picture","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-cost-of-occupation","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-usa","tag-vladimir-putin"],"yoast_head":"\nNever waste a good crisis - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Never waste a good crisis - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Russian Federation has amassed a large army on the border of Ukraine and threatens to invade unless the US and NATO make concessions including the withdrawal of forces from Eastern Europe, securing Moscow a broad sphere of influence. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-7T7","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9402,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/03\/08\/europes-five-deadly-sins-on-ukraine-carnegie-europe\/","url_meta":{"origin":30325,"position":0},"title":"Europe\u2019s Five Deadly Sins on Ukraine | Carnegie Europe","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 8, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Jan Techau of Carnegie Europe writes: ....In recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has talked about the Kremlin\u2019s fears of Western encirclement. He has declared that EU and NATO enlargement are part of a conspiracy to destroy Russia, that Ukraine is not really a sovereign nation, and that Western agents\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Russia & Former USSR"","block_context":{"text":"Russia & Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31322,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/04\/putin-doubles-down\/","url_meta":{"origin":30325,"position":1},"title":"Oil & gas: Putin doubles down","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 4, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Vladimir Putin has doubled down on his strategy to crush military opposition in Ukraine. Russia's military suffered initial setbacks when they tried to seize the Kyiv in a matter of days -- using rapid advances on multiple fronts -- a strategy for which they were ill-equipped. They are now opting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Russia & Former USSR"","block_context":{"text":"Russia & Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Vladimir Putin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/putin.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":11542,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/10\/putin-will-never-back-down-institutional-investors-alpha\/","url_meta":{"origin":30325,"position":2},"title":"Putin Will Never Back Down | Institutional Investor’s Alpha","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 10, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent analysis of the situation in Eastern Europe by Bill Browder, founder of London-based Hermitage Capital Management: I'm afraid that, based on the reasons behind Putin's motivations for invading Ukraine in the first place, there is no chance that he will back down. To understand this, all it takes is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Russia & Former USSR"","block_context":{"text":"Russia & Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Former Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/mcfaul.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":30946,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/12\/nasdaq-gold-its-crunch-time\/","url_meta":{"origin":30325,"position":3},"title":"Nasdaq & Gold: It’s crunch time","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 12, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"It seems the hawkish view on interest rates lasted no more than 36 hours. 10-Year Treasury yields fell sharply, reversing their gains from Thursday. Gold broke resistance at $1850 per ounce, signaling a test of $1900. Rising Trend Index troughs continue to indicate buying pressure. Silver rallied, with a Trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Precious Metals"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-11-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-11-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-11-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30988,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/15\/russia-ukraine-update\/","url_meta":{"origin":30325,"position":4},"title":"Russia-Ukraine latest developments","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 15, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Russia shifted to a more conciliatory tone, hinting at further dialogue. From the New York Times: The tone of the crisis over Ukraine shifted Monday as Russia\u2019s top diplomat endorsed more talks to resolve its standoff with the West, and Ukrainian officials hinted at offering concessions to avert war \u2014\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Russia & Former USSR"","block_context":{"text":"Russia & Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Twitter","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-15-ramani.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-15-ramani.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-15-ramani.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14271,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/05\/why-putin-will-fail-upi-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":30325,"position":5},"title":"Why Putin will fail | UPI.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 5, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Harlan Ullman: Frozen conflicts are not in Russia's long-term interest. Of course, while the short-term aim of preventing Georgia and Ukraine from joining NATO because of contested borders is working, the long-term economic damage done to Russia will prove politically destructive. Putin certainly is riding a political tiger. However,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Russia & Former USSR"","block_context":{"text":"Russia & Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30325","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30325"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30325\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30329,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30325\/revisions\/30329"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30325"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30325"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30325"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}