{"id":29826,"date":"2021-12-10T07:17:25","date_gmt":"2021-12-10T07:17:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=29826"},"modified":"2024-04-19T02:32:30","modified_gmt":"2024-04-19T02:32:30","slug":"omicron-may-be-our-best-hope-of-taming-the-pandemic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/10\/omicron-may-be-our-best-hope-of-taming-the-pandemic\/","title":{"rendered":"Omicron may be our best hope of taming the pandemic"},"content":{"rendered":"

Almost a year before Omicron appeared, Paul Ewald, an evolutionary biologist, predicted that the COVID virus would evolve in the direction of a highly contagious but less deadly variant.<\/p>\n

Omicron is certainly proving more contagious than earlier variants.<\/p>\n

\"Omicron<\/p>\n

Source: <\/em>Bloomberg<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

But the hospitalization rate — for those above 30 years of age at least — is far lower than the earlier Delta variant.<\/p>\n

\"Omicron<\/p>\n

Source: <\/em>Bloomberg<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The higher rate of hospitalizations among children under 9 may not be as concerning as it first seems:<\/p>\n

Professor Mignon McCulloch, who is the Chairperson of the SA Paediatric Association, has urged people not to panic during her appearance on CapeTalk. Around 20% of new admissions for COVID-19 in Tshwane have been in children aged nine or under, whereas similar spikes have not been seen in any other age groups.<\/p>\n

However, it doesn\u2019t mean that Omicron is more dangerous, or even more deadly for children. According to McCulloch, it\u2019s very likely that the children admitted to hospital are actually there for reasons other than the virus \u2013 and it is \u2018coincidental\u2019 that they have also tested positive for COVID-19 when checked by hospital staff. (The South African<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Evolutionary path<\/h2>\n

Earlier, researchers at the University of Exeter found that the most virulent variants of a pathogen may transmit the fastest, but tend to lose out in evolutionary terms to less virulent strains:<\/p>\n

Pathogens have a single evolutionary goal \u2013 to produce more of themselves. \u201cVirulence will evolve towards a level that optimizes their ability to transmit,\u201d Dr Bonneaud said.<\/p>\n

If the pathogen meets resistance to transmission — in the form of a recovered and immune or vaccinated host, or social distancing — then highly virulent forms die out with their host, and natural selection favors less virulent forms.<\/p>\n

If there is no such resistance, the pathogen can kill its existing host at no evolutionary cost and will remain highly virulent…..<\/p>\n

Paul Ewald, at the University of Louisville in Kentucky, said humanity had drawn a short straw with Sars-CoV-2 because it was both highly virulent and highly transmissible when it emerged.<\/p>\n

Over time it is likely to reduce its virulence \u2013 in fact, that may already be happening, as reflected in falling mortality rates.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would expect it to evolve to a virulence that is very much like [seasonal] influenza,\u201d Prof Ewald said in November last year.<\/p>\n

“And containment measures, properly implemented, should accelerate that process.” (The Guardian<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Host mobility<\/h2>\n

Paul Ewald’s research focuses on the dependence of disease organisms on the mobility of their host for transmission. A patient (host) who is bed-ridden or dies is less likely to transmit the infection — unless the disease has another means of spreading other than personal contact\/close proximity. A host with mild symptoms is far more likely to move around in the community and spread the disease.<\/p>\n

If a disease organism is very dependent on healthy hosts moving around [and] contacting susceptible hosts, then we expect natural selection to favor extreme mildness in those disease organisms. If, however, the disease organism is not dependent on host mobility — for example, if the disease organism is transmitted by mosquito, or contaminated water, or because it’s durable in the external environment — then we expect that natural selection will favor high levels of harmfulness in those disease organisms…..<\/p>\n

When we look at the population of disease organisms in any given area, we see both mild and harmful strains….. all we need to do is tip the competitive balance in favor of those mild strains.<\/p>\n

We can look at the experience in South America and Central America as a kind of a natural experiment that allows us to evaluate these ideas. In 1991, cholera came into Peru and then quickly, within a couple of years, spread all throughout South and Central America. Some countries had clean water supplies, and other countries had contaminated water supplies. What we find is that when the organism invaded countries with clean water supplies, the organism dropped in its harmfulness.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the organisms that invaded countries with poor water supplies — countries like Ecuador — evolved increased harmfulness over time. They’ve actually become more toxigenic. (Paul Ewald: Infectious Disease and the Evolution of Virulence<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We can use evolution to encourage diseases to evolve into milder forms that are not as harmful and also create resistance to more virulent strains. Use of vaccines, handwashing, masks and social distancing help to restrict more virulent forms of the virus and encourage milder versions like Omicron to take over, developing herd immunity.<\/p>\n

Opening up populations to a pandemic — in the misguided hope of creating herd immunity — are likely to have the opposite effect. Unhindered transmission would encourage evolution of more virulent strains, with far higher hospitalization and death rates.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgement<\/h4>\n

Hat tip to Macrobusiness<\/a> for the images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Almost a year before Omicron appeared, Paul Ewald, an evolutionary biologist, predicted that the COVID virus would evolve in the direction of a highly contagious but less deadly variant. Omicron is certainly proving more contagious than earlier variants. Source: Bloomberg But the hospitalization rate — for those above 30 years of age at least — … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Omicron may be our best hope of taming the pandemic”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[4215,5329,5332,5330,5311,5328,5331],"class_list":["post-29826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-big-picture","tag-covid-19","tag-evolutionary-biology","tag-hospitalization-rate","tag-host-mobility","tag-omicron","tag-paul-ewald","tag-sars-cov-2"],"yoast_head":"\nOmicron may be our best hope of taming the pandemic - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Almost a year before Omicron appeared, Paul Ewald predicted that the COVID virus would evolve in the direction of a highly contagious but less deadly variant.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/10\/omicron-may-be-our-best-hope-of-taming-the-pandemic\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Omicron may be our best hope of taming the pandemic - 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Laurence Boone, chief economist of the OECD, said there were two scenarios facing the international\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-02-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-02-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-02-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29486,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/01\/sp-500-correction-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":29826,"position":1},"title":"S&P 500 correction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 1, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields continue their retreat from resistance at 1.70%. Breach of short-term support at 1.45% would offer a target of 1.20%. The S&P 500 follow-through below 4600 warns of a correction to test the primary support level at 4300. While the market may be spooked by the new Omicron\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-01-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-01-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-01-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29475,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/01\/inflation-snippets\/","url_meta":{"origin":29826,"position":2},"title":"Inflation snippets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 1, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Turkey risks hyperinflation The Turkish lira slid to a new record low on Tuesday after fresh statements from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opposing any interest rate increases. The currency hit a low of 13.47 to the dollar in late afternoon trading, surpassing its previous record low last week of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"TRY\/USD","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-01-try.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-01-try.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-01-try.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-01-try.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29876,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/11\/asx-financials-and-iron-ore-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":29826,"position":3},"title":"ASX: Financials and Iron ore headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 11, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 rallied strongly mid-week but ran into resistance at 7400. The Trend Index indicates mild selling pressure and respect of 7300 would be a bullish sign. Breach of 7300 is less likely but would warn of another test of primary support at 7200. Bond ETFs are rallying but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-xjo.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29653,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/05\/asx-5\/","url_meta":{"origin":29826,"position":4},"title":"ASX bears grow stronger","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 5, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 continues to test primary support at 7200, while Trend index peaks at zero warn of selling pressure. Breach of support would offer a target of 6800. Bond ETFs are rallying but the down-trend remains intact, with long-term interest rates strengthening. Weekly COVID cases continue to stick at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-04-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-04-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-04-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-04-xjo.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29873,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/11\/gold-inflation-hits-39-year-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":29826,"position":5},"title":"Gold: Inflation hits 39-year high","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 11, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"CPI reached a 39-year high this month, growing by 6.81% in the 12 months to November. Food faces rising fertilizer prices and CPI Food & Beverages component is expected to climb further. Oil prices dipped with the outbreak of the new Omicron variant but could bounce back sharply if initial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29826"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29826\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51484,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29826\/revisions\/51484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}