{"id":29483,"date":"2021-12-01T07:34:29","date_gmt":"2021-12-01T07:34:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=29483"},"modified":"2021-12-01T07:39:13","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T07:39:13","slug":"services-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/01\/services-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Services inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

A friend asked a question: “Our advanced economies are 70 – 80 % Services based these days; so will this make CPI inflation difficult to sustain if wages growth is not sustained.”<\/p>\n

The answer is YES. Inflation is unlikely to be sustained if wages growth declines.<\/p>\n

BUT wages growth is accelerating, not declining, both in the services sector and in the broader economy.<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

Wages growth is also not likely to decline while we have record job openings; 5.4 million in the services sector alone.<\/p>\n

\"Job<\/p>\n

Employers are having to offer higher wages and sign-on bonuses to attract workers — the result of record high savings levels fueled by government stimulus.<\/p>\n

\"M2\/GDP\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A friend asked a question: “Our advanced economies are 70 – 80 % Services based these days; so will this make CPI inflation difficult to sustain if wages growth is not sustained.” The answer is YES. Inflation is unlikely to be sustained if wages growth declines. BUT wages growth is accelerating, not declining, both in … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Services inflation”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,13,34],"tags":[1828,4920,3631],"class_list":["post-29483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-inflation","tag-services-sector","tag-wages-growth"],"yoast_head":"\nServices inflation - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Services inflation - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A friend asked a question: “Our advanced economies are 70 – 80 % Services based these days; so will this make CPI inflation difficult to sustain if wages growth is not sustained.” The answer is YES. 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There are plenty of signs that inflation is easing -- mainly because of falling energy prices -- but average hourly earnings growth gives an insight into underlying\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Atlanta Fed Wages Tracker","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-15-atlantafed-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-15-atlantafed-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-15-atlantafed-wages.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27227,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/07\/rising-wages-inflation-but-4-6m-missing-services-jobs\/","url_meta":{"origin":29483,"position":1},"title":"Rising wages inflation but 4.6m missing services jobs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 7, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Total employment increased by a healthy 943,000 in July. But total employment is still 5.7 million below its February '20 high. Unusually high job openings reflect the slow return to the workforce -- encouraged by the extra $300 per week in unemployment benefits -- and account for 2 million of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":28465,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/22\/beige-book-wages-pressure-growing\/","url_meta":{"origin":29483,"position":2},"title":"Beige Book: Wages pressure growing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 22, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed\u2019s \u201cBeige Book\u201d \u2013 an informal narrative of the economy as depicted by large and small companies in the 12 Federal Reserve districts \u2013 listed 78 references to various aspects of strong wage pressures and bonus offers to hire and retain workers, amid concerns of \u201cwage inflation,\u201d with some\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25799,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/15\/all-you-need-to-know-about-inflation-in-one-chart\/","url_meta":{"origin":29483,"position":3},"title":"All you need to know about inflation in one chart","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 15, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Actually, there are five charts but the first four are simply to explain how we get to the last one. Wage Rates & Crude Oil The first shows a history of US inflation for the past 60 years: wage rates, crude oil and the consumer price index (CPI). What this\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":35565,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/07\/inflation-and-wages-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":29483,"position":4},"title":"Inflation and wages outlook","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 7, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Job openings declined slightly to 11.25 million for May but this far exceeds unemployment of 5.95 million, leaving a shortfall of 5.3 million workers. Hourly earnings growth was 6.5% for the 12 months ended May. We expect a down-turn for June, as recession fears grow, but the shortage of workers\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Job Openings & Unemployment (U3)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-07-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-07-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-07-jolts-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-07-jolts-u3.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":25976,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/24\/hourly-wages-warn-of-rising-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":29483,"position":5},"title":"Hourly wages warn of rising inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 24, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Which is the best measure of inflation: average hourly earnings or the consumer price index (CPI)? The chart below shows CPI and average hourly earnings adjusted to the same base point in January 1964. At times, CPI lags behind average hourly wage growth -- as in the 1970s -- but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29483"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29483\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29485,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29483\/revisions\/29485"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}