{"id":28749,"date":"2021-11-06T05:09:22","date_gmt":"2021-11-06T05:09:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=28749"},"modified":"2021-11-08T01:56:21","modified_gmt":"2021-11-08T01:56:21","slug":"strong-retail-sales-missing-workers-and-the-inflation-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/06\/strong-retail-sales-missing-workers-and-the-inflation-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Retail sales, missing workers and the inflation threat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The October labor report shows hours worked were roughly unchanged from September and still 100K below the pre-pandemic high (5.25m). But GDP of 19.5 trillion is up slightly when compared to 19.2T in Q3 2019, indicating that productivity has improved.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png?resize=525%2C292&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real GDP &amp; Hours Worked\" width=\"525\" height=\"292\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Monthly retail sales for September, on the other hand, were way above trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-retail.png?resize=525%2C292&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Retail Sales\" width=\"525\" height=\"292\" \/><\/p>\n<p>People are spending Dollars they didn&#8217;t earn, courtesy of record government stimulus.<\/p>\n<p>That is one of the primary causes of rising consumer prices (red below): when demand outstrips supply.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-wages-cpi.png?resize=525%2C292&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Earnings &amp; CPI\" width=\"525\" height=\"292\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A rising CPI in turn causes <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/05\/the-fed-taper-and-inflation\/\">second run inflation<\/a> through higher wage demands (green and gray above) if central banks fail to act quickly. They become embedded and difficult to dislodge.<\/p>\n<p>The combined effect of the pandemic and government stimulus has had a profound impact on the US labor market. The economy added 5.8 million jobs in the 10 months to October, at an average of 580K per month. That rate is likely to slow as the economy reopens and enhanced unemployment benefits end.<\/p>\n<p>We are missing 4.2 million employees, compared to the pre-pandemic peak of 152.5m jobs, and seem unlikely to find them, judging by the 10.4 million job openings in September. High levels of job openings are likely to exert continuing upward pressure on wages.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-jobs.png?resize=525%2C292&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Non-farm Payroll &amp; Job Openings\" width=\"525\" height=\"292\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The missing workers &#8212; aided by government handouts &#8212; have either retired, quit their jobs to day-trade Tesla and crypto-currencies, or have re-assessed their work-life priorities. No doubt there will be a trickle back to the workforce &#8212; as day-traders encounter <em>reversion to the mean<\/em> and\/or savings run low &#8212; but the Fed needs to reassess its full employment target. Failure to do so would leave interest rates too low for too long and allow <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/05\/the-fed-taper-and-inflation\/\">second run inflation<\/a> to become entrenched. The only way to then dislodge it is with the kind of drastic measures that Paul Volcker used in the early eighties, with the fed funds rate peaking at 20%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-ffr.png?resize=525%2C292&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Funds Rate under Paul Volcker\" width=\"525\" height=\"292\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The October labor report shows hours worked were roughly unchanged from September and still 100K below the pre-pandemic high (5.25m). But GDP of 19.5 trillion is up slightly when compared to 19.2T in Q3 2019, indicating that productivity has improved. Monthly retail sales for September, on the other hand, were way above trend. People are &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/06\/strong-retail-sales-missing-workers-and-the-inflation-threat\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Retail sales, missing workers and the inflation threat&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,34],"tags":[314,854,1723,4874,4040,2870,2943],"class_list":["post-28749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-cpi","tag-hours-worked","tag-job-openings","tag-non-farm-payroll","tag-real-gdp","tag-retail-sales"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Retail sales, missing workers and the inflation threat - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Retail sales, missing workers and the inflation threat - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The October labor report shows hours worked were roughly unchanged from September and still 100K below the pre-pandemic high (5.25m). But GDP of 19.5 trillion is up slightly when compared to 19.2T in Q3 2019, indicating that productivity has improved. Monthly retail sales for September, on the other hand, were way above trend. People are &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Retail sales, missing workers and the inflation threat&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/06\/strong-retail-sales-missing-workers-and-the-inflation-threat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-06T05:09:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-11-08T01:56:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/06\\\/strong-retail-sales-missing-workers-and-the-inflation-threat\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/06\\\/strong-retail-sales-missing-workers-and-the-inflation-threat\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Retail sales, missing workers and the inflation threat\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-06T05:09:22+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-08T01:56:21+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/06\\\/strong-retail-sales-missing-workers-and-the-inflation-threat\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":322,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/06\\\/strong-retail-sales-missing-workers-and-the-inflation-threat\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2021\\\/2021-11-05-realgdp-hours.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Average Hourly Earnings\",\"CPI\",\"hours worked\",\"Job Openings\",\"Non-farm Payroll\",\"Real GDP\",\"retail sales\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Deficit Spending &amp; 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-7tH","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":37070,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/06\/australia-more-rate-hikes-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":28749,"position":0},"title":"Australia: More rate hikes ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA hiked its target for the cash rate by 50 basis points today, to 2.35%, offering the following justification: .....Inflation in Australia is the highest it has been since the early 1990s and is expected to increase further over the months ahead. Global factors explain much of the increase\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-06-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":59679,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/05\/australia-rba-unlikely-to-play-santa\/","url_meta":{"origin":28749,"position":1},"title":"Australia: RBA unlikely to play Santa","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite the chorus of pleas from interest groups, the RBA is unlikely to deliver an early rate cut. Strong government spending prevents the slide into recession and increases upward pressure on prices. The ASX 200 also remains in a strong uptrend. ASX Stocks Australia's ASX 200 is testing resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36523,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/18\/us-retail-sales-warn-of-more-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":28749,"position":2},"title":"US retail sales warn of more inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 18, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Advance retail sales for July (excluding motor and parts) came in at a strong $557.9 billion, way above the pre-pandemic trend (dotted line below). Real retail sales grew at a low 0.05% over the previous month, suggesting that the decline in real spending (adjusted for inflation) is slowing after two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-17-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-17-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-17-retail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38904,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/18\/higher-for-longer-as-us-economy-shows-resilience\/","url_meta":{"origin":28749,"position":3},"title":"Higher for longer as US economy shows resilience","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 18, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The producer price index (PPI) slowed to 10.3% for the 12 months to November. Declining goods inflation is likely to feed through into lower CPI growth in the months ahead. Energy PPI is closely linked to energy prices, as the plot of PPI against WTI crude below shows. West Texas\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"PPI & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-16-ppi-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-16-ppi-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-16-ppi-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18521,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/06\/still-cautious\/","url_meta":{"origin":28749,"position":4},"title":"Still cautious","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 6, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflationary pressures are easing, with average hourly earnings growth declining to 3.35% in June, for Production and Non-Supervisory Employees, and 3.14% for Total Private sector. But this warns that economic growth is slowing. Annual growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.25%, suggesting a similar decline in GDP growth for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31539,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/17\/retail-spending-steady-but-real-incomes-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":28749,"position":5},"title":"Retail spending steady but real incomes fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 17, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Retail sales for February are still considerably above their long-term trend (dotted line) even when adjusted for inflation (CPI). Above-trend demand -- in addition to supply chain shortages -- adds to inflationary pressure. Real disposable personal income is falling below trend (dotted line) as government transfers decline. After a sharp\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Retail Sales\/CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-retail-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-retail-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-retail-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-retail-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28749"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28749\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28774,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28749\/revisions\/28774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}