{"id":28619,"date":"2021-10-31T23:18:07","date_gmt":"2021-10-31T23:18:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=28619"},"modified":"2021-11-01T01:41:10","modified_gmt":"2021-11-01T01:41:10","slug":"david-woo-prelude-to-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/31\/david-woo-prelude-to-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"David Woo: Prelude to volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/9xUHrG549hY?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The bond market had a heart attack last week. Rising inflation caused a massive back up in bond yields in the short end of the market. The market is now pricing in two rate hikes in 2022. The Fed will have to raise real interest rates in order to tame inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Real interest rates are falling. The stock market is taking its cue from the bond market and is rising. Stock prices represent discounted future cash flows, so negative real interest rates make a big difference to earnings multiples.<\/p>\n<p>The Democrats are determined to spend their way to a mid-term election victory, with a $1T infrastructure bill and $1.75T social spending, both light on tax revenue. The GOP will try to stop them when the debt ceiling issue returns in December but they don&#8217;t have much leverage.<\/p>\n<p>Financial conditions will have to tighten a lot more in 2022. The Fed is way behind the curve and is going to have to play catch-up.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Inflationary pressures in the US economy are growing, while the Democrats plan a further $2.75T in fiscal stimulus which is light on tax revenues.<\/p>\n<p>Long-term yields lag far behind inflation, with real interest rates growing increasingly negative. The assumption is that the Fed will tighten sharply in 2022 to curb inflation. We expect that the Fed will taper but is not going to rush to hike interest rates for three reasons:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>The Fed would be tightening into a slowing economy, with <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/29\/slowing-gdp-growth\/\">growth fading as stimulus winds down<\/a>;<\/li>\n<li>High energy prices will also help to cool demand; and<\/li>\n<li>US federal debt levels &#8212; already &gt; 120% of GDP and likely to grow further with proposed new stimulus measures &#8212; are a greater long-term threat than inflation. The Fed and Treasury are expected to work together to boost GDP and tax revenues through inflation, keeping real interest rates negative to alleviate the cost to Treasury of servicing the excessive debt burden.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The bond market had a heart attack last week. Rising inflation caused a massive back up in bond yields in the short end of the market. The market is now pricing in two rate hikes in 2022. The Fed will have to raise real interest rates in order to tame inflation. Real interest rates are &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/31\/david-woo-prelude-to-volatility\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;David Woo: Prelude to volatility&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,13,34],"tags":[5264,470,1524,1828,5054,5266,5267,2872,5265,4715],"class_list":["post-28619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-2-year-treasury-yields","tag-bond-market","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-infrastructure-bill","tag-interest-rate-hikes","tag-lt-treasury-yields","tag-real-interest-rates","tag-social-spending-bill","tag-tax-revenues"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>David Woo: Prelude to volatility - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"David Woo: Prelude to volatility - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The bond market had a heart attack last week. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Importance of resistance at 3.00% is best illustrated on a long-term monthly chart. Yields declined for more than three decades (since 1981) in a bond bull market but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36235,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/08\/gold-rallies-but-jobs-report-warns-of-strong-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":28619,"position":1},"title":"Gold rallies but jobs report warns of strong Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 8, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is testing resisatnce at $1800 per troy ounce after a strong rally in recent weeks. Rising troughs on short-term (13-day) Trend Index signal buyer interest. Silver also rallied, penetration of the descending trendline suggesting that a bottom is forming. But bond yields are climbing after a strong jobs report\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-08-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-08-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-08-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":39256,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/03\/gold-rallies-but-needs-to-backfill\/","url_meta":{"origin":28619,"position":2},"title":"Gold rallies but needs to backfill","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar weakened in recent weeks on expectation of slowing Fed rate hikes. 10-Year Treasury yields fell to 3.53%, well below the 3-Month at 4.33%, reflecting the bond market view that a deflationary contraction will force the Fed to cut rates -- despite assertions that they will hold rates high\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dollar Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-02-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-02-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-02-dxy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38132,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/15\/bond-market-no-place-to-hide\/","url_meta":{"origin":28619,"position":3},"title":"Bond market: No place to hide","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 15, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Advance retail sales were flat in September, reflecting slowing growth, but remain well above their pre-pandemic trend. So far, Fed rate hikes have failed to make a dent in consumer spending. Even adjusted for inflation, real retail sales are well above the pre-pandemic trend. The culprit is M2 money supply.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-15-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-15-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-15-retail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36202,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/06\/strong-us-labor-report-warns-of-further-rate-hikes\/","url_meta":{"origin":28619,"position":4},"title":"Strong US labor report bearish for stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 6, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy added 528,00 new jobs in July, with total non-farm payroll reaching a new record of 152.536 million. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, close to its 60-year low of 3.4% (1969). The labor market remains tight, with job openings exceeding unemployment by 5 million. Estimated hours worked\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38089,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/bond-market-meet-minsky\/","url_meta":{"origin":28619,"position":5},"title":"Bond market, meet Minsky","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 13, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The minutes of the last FOMC meeting effectively balance the needs of fighting inflation and preserving the economy. What they don't address is protecting financial stability. ~ Mohamed El-Erian The MOVE index of Treasury market volatility has climbed to 160.72. According to Harley Bassman, who created the index, levels above\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core PCE","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-13--cpi-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-13--cpi-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-13--cpi-corepce.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28619"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28619\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28624,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28619\/revisions\/28624"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}