{"id":26744,"date":"2021-07-10T06:55:26","date_gmt":"2021-07-10T06:55:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=26744"},"modified":"2021-07-10T08:05:15","modified_gmt":"2021-07-10T08:05:15","slug":"the-tesla-in-the-coal-mine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/10\/the-tesla-in-the-coal-mine\/","title":{"rendered":"A Tesla in the coal mine"},"content":{"rendered":"

All five US technology behemoths — Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT) — show strong up-trends over the past 6 months, boosted by strong inflows from international investors who are giving the bond market a wide berth.<\/p>\n

\"AAPL,<\/p>\n

But the canary in the coal mine is Tesla (TSLA), the darling of retail investors and the largest holding in Cathy Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK). TSLA encountered resistance at 700 and looks ready for another test of primary support. Breach of 550 would signal a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Tesla<\/p>\n

Trading at more than 17 times sales (TTM Q1 FY21), Tesla shows spectacular exponential growth in revenues over the past ten years. But investors should be wary of extrapolating that growth as heavyweights like Volkswagen, Ford and GM invest heavily in the EV space.<\/p>\n

\"Tesla<\/p>\n

Also, free cash flow is patchy, reaching $3.4 billion in FY20 on a levered basis.<\/p>\n

\"Tesla<\/p>\n

That starts to look anemic when one takes into account stock compensation of $1.7 billion — which does not affect cash flow but dilutes existing stockholders. Adjusted free cash flow, net of stock compensation, is $1.7bn. Against market cap of $621bn that gives an earnings multiple of 365 times!<\/p>\n

\"Tesla<\/p>\n

If we take adjusted free cash flow for the trailing 12 months to March 2021, of $1.4bn, that gives an even higher multiple of 443 times.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Valuations of stocks like Tesla (TSLA) are precarious and breach of primary support levels could spark a flurry of margin calls.<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n
    \n
  1. Revenue and cash flows are from SeekingAlpha<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    All five US technology behemoths — Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT) — show strong up-trends over the past 6 months, boosted by strong inflows from international investors who are giving the bond market a wide berth. But the canary in the coal mine is Tesla (TSLA), the darling of … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading “A Tesla in the coal mine”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[4979,4978,4977,4980,4981,4976],"class_list":["post-26744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-alphabet-googl","tag-amazon-amzn","tag-apple-aapl","tag-facebook-fb","tag-microsoft-msft","tag-tesla-tsla"],"yoast_head":"\nA Tesla in the coal mine - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Tesla in the coal mine - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"All five US technology behemoths — Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT) — show strong up-trends over the past 6 months, boosted by strong inflows from international investors who are giving the bond market a wide berth. 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The latest Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Follow-through below 800 would confirm the primary down-trend. A reversal signal for Tesla, one of the stars of the recent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Tesla","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-tsla.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-tsla.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-tsla.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-tsla.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17665,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/12\/07\/tech-leaders-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":26744,"position":1},"title":"Tech leaders bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 7, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"There are five tech giants that dictate market direction. All reflect bearish sentiment in the market but only Facebook (FB) is in a primary down-trend. Not enough to call this a bear market. Facebook (FB) is the only one to have broken primary support. At present it is retracing to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19883,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/07\/what-the-big-five-can-tell-us\/","url_meta":{"origin":26744,"position":2},"title":"What the Big Five can tell us","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Rather than just look at composite indexes, it pays to review the charts of market leaders to gain an understanding of market dynamics. The following five NASDAQ stocks have a combined market cap of $4.8 trillion, larger than the entire London stock exchange (LSE: $4.0T) and similar in size to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":29877,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/11\/sp-500-small-caps-diverge\/","url_meta":{"origin":26744,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500: Small caps diverge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 11, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 ($INX) remains bullish, with Trend Index holding above zero for over a year indicating tremendous buying pressure. Narrow breadth is our main concern, with the Russell 2000 small caps ETF (IWM) diverging from the S&P 500 ($INX). Conclusion The market is growing risk-averse as the Fed starts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-10-spx.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24642,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/20\/nasdaq-tech-stocks-pause-for-breath\/","url_meta":{"origin":26744,"position":4},"title":"Tech heavyweights pause for breath","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Good progress has been made combating the pandemic but daily COVID cases seem to be struggling to break through a floor between 50 and 60 thousand. The vaccine roll-out is ahead of schedule but people need to stop listening to idiots like Rand Paul -- who went to the Senate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26146,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/04\/tesla-tsla-canary-in-the-coal-mine\/","url_meta":{"origin":26744,"position":5},"title":"Tesla (TSLA): Canary in the coal mine","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 4, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Tesla (TSLA) is one of the most high profile stocks in the S&P 500. Charismatic CEO and founder, Elon Musk has maneuvered the stock to a prominence beyond its market cap of more than $550 billion. One of the darlings of retail trading platforms, TSLA has a following to rival\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26744","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26744"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26744\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26747,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26744\/revisions\/26747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26744"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26744"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26744"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}