{"id":26524,"date":"2021-06-25T23:34:23","date_gmt":"2021-06-25T23:34:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=26524"},"modified":"2021-06-25T23:35:30","modified_gmt":"2021-06-25T23:35:30","slug":"feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-surges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/25\/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-surges\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed&#8217;s favorite inflation indicator surges"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Fed&#8217;s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index grew by 3.9% in the 12 months ended May &#8217;21, while Core PCE (excluding food &amp; energy) came in slightly lower at 3.4%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-06-25-pce.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Personal Consumption Expenditure Index: Annual Change\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We still have to watch out for base effects, because of the low readings in May last year, but growth for the past 6 months is even higher, registering 5.3% (PCE) and 4.6% (core PCE) annualized gains.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-06-25-pce-6m.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Personal Consumption Expenditure Index: 6-Month Change\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Excluding temporary price spikes due to supply chain disruption, we expect inflation to average a minimum of 4.0% over the next three years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fed&#8217;s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index grew by 3.9% in the 12 months ended May &#8217;21, while Core PCE (excluding food &amp; energy) came in slightly lower at 3.4%. We still have to watch out for base effects, because of the low readings in May last year, but growth &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/25\/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-surges\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Fed&#8217;s favorite inflation indicator surges&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,34],"tags":[4957,4899,4537],"class_list":["post-26524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-core-pce","tag-pce","tag-personal-consumption-expenditure"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed&#039;s favorite inflation indicator surges - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed&#039;s favorite inflation indicator surges - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Fed&#8217;s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index grew by 3.9% in the 12 months ended May &#8217;21, while Core PCE (excluding food &amp; energy) came in slightly lower at 3.4%. 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Monthly growth fell close to the Fed's target -- registering a meager 0.17% (2.04% annualized) for November. But monthly measures can be volatile,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Inflation&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Inflation","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/inflation-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Core PCE Inflation - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-23-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-23-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-23-corepce.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50623,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/30\/modest-rebound-in-core-pce-but-energy-could-spoil-the-party\/","url_meta":{"origin":26524,"position":1},"title":"Modest rebound in core PCE but Energy could spoil the party","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 30, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Personal consumption expenditures index ticked up to 2.5% for the 12 months to February, while core PCE continues to decline. Trimmed mean PCE (orange below) also declined at a similar rate to core PCE. Monthly PCE shows a strong rebound in 2024, with a February increase of 0.333% -- or\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"PCE & Core PCE Inflation","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-29-pce-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-29-pce-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-29-pce-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42306,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/27\/why-we-hold-gold-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":26524,"position":2},"title":"Why we hold Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Real personal consumption continues to grow -- at an annual rate of 2.4% -- despite Fed rate hikes at the fastest rate in four decades. One reason is the rise in real disposable personal income (shown below excluding government transfers), reaching a new high. Luke Gromen points out that rising\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real Personal Consumption","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-26-realpersonalconsumption.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-26-realpersonalconsumption.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-26-realpersonalconsumption.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41007,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/02\/25\/core-pce-surprise\/","url_meta":{"origin":26524,"position":3},"title":"Core PCE surprise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 25, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed's preferred measure of long-term inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Price Index which excludes food and energy, stepped up to 4.7% for the 12 months to January. This goes against Chairman Jerome Powell's recent talk of disinflation. More alarming is the jump in the monthly measure of Core PCE\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"PCE & Core PCE Price Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-25-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-25-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-25-corepce.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41839,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/29\/core-pce-inflation-eases-but-employment-costs-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":26524,"position":4},"title":"Core PCE inflation eases but employment costs rise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 29, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Core PCE inflation eased slightly to 4.6% for the 12 months to March. The Fed's favorite measure of long-term inflation, core PCE is still a long way above the Fed's 2.0% target. But the lag between rate hikes and declining inflation is at least 12 months -- sometimes a lot\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Core PCE Inflation","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-29-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-29-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-29-corepce.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":49252,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/01\/core-pce-surprise-jump\/","url_meta":{"origin":26524,"position":5},"title":"Core PCE surprise jump","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Monthly core PCE -- the Fed's favorite measure of underlying inflation -- jumped by 0.416% or 5.0% annualized. Annual figures are still declining, including the Trimmed Mean PCE which declined to 3.2%. The 3-month (orange) and 6-month (gray) moving averages have turned upwards but not yet crossed the descending annual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Core PCE - Monthly","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-29-pce-core-m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-29-pce-core-m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-29-pce-core-m.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26524"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26524\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26527,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26524\/revisions\/26527"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}