{"id":26334,"date":"2021-06-16T04:17:33","date_gmt":"2021-06-16T04:17:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=26334"},"modified":"2021-06-17T06:29:44","modified_gmt":"2021-06-17T06:29:44","slug":"productivity-not-population-key-to-aussie-living-standards-macrobusiness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/16\/productivity-not-population-key-to-aussie-living-standards-macrobusiness\/","title":{"rendered":"Productivity not population key to Aussie living standards | Macrobusiness"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From Leith van Onselen at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2021\/06\/productivity-not-population-is-key-to-aussie-living-standards\/\">Macrobusiness<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Former ALP minister Craig Emerson has penned an article in The AFR calling on the Morrison Government to tackle Australia\u2019s declining productivity growth, which is central to boosting the nation\u2019s living standards:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cProductivity growth has contributed 95 per cent of the improvement in Australians\u2019 material living standards since 1901\u201d.<br \/>\n\u201cFrom the turn of the century, Australia\u2019s productivity performance began to slide and the longer it has gone on the worse it has gotten\u201d.<br \/>\n\u201cOver the period from 2015 until the COVID-19 pandemic struck, actual productivity growth was worse than the low-productivity scenario included in the 2015 intergenerational report\u201d.<br \/>\n\u201cIn the decade since 2010 \u2013 even excluding last year \u2013 Australia recorded its slowest growth in GDP per capita of any decade in at least 60 years\u201d.<br \/>\n\u201cWithout a comprehensive economic reform program, Australia will inevitably have weak growth in living standards during the remainder of the 2020s and into the 2030s\u201d.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Craig Emerson\u2019s assessment is broadly correct, as evidenced by the stagnant real per capita GDP, wage and income growth experienced over the past decade (even before the coronavirus pandemic).<\/p>\n<p>Sadly, however, the Morrison Government with the help of the Australian Treasury seems hell bent on leveraging the other \u2018P\u2019 \u2013 population growth \u2013 to mask over Australia\u2019s poor productivity performance and to keep headline GDP growing, even if it means per capita GDP, income growth and living standards deteriorate.<\/p>\n<p>Rather than using the coronavirus pandemic as an opportunity to reset the Australian economy to focus on quality over quantity, the Morrison Government is intent on repeating the policy mistakes of the past by returning to the lazy dumb growth policy of hyper immigration.<\/p>\n<p>Rebooting mass immigration will inevitably contribute to Australia\u2019s poor productivity growth by:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Crush-loading cities, increasing congestion costs and rising infrastructure costs;<\/li>\n<li>Encouraging growth in low productivity people-servicing industries and debt creation, rather than higher productivity tradables; and<\/li>\n<li>Discouraging companies from innovating and adopting labour saving technologies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It\u2019s time to put the Australian Treasury\u2019s Three-Ps framework to rest once and for all, along with the snake oil solution of mass immigration.<\/p>\n<p>Policy makers must instead focus first and foremost on boosting productivity, followed by lifting labour force participation. These are the two Ps that actually matter for living standards.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We agree with the concern over poor productivity growth, but focusing on labor force participation is putting the cart before the horse. The key cause of low productivity growth is declining business investment.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-06-11-aus-inv.png?w=450&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Business Investment\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>Without business investment, new job creation and wages growth will remain low. The way out of this trap is to <em>prime the pump<\/em>. Boost consumption through infrastructure programs &#8212; investment in productive infrastructure that will boost GDP growth (to repay the debt). Boost business investment through strong consumption, a lower Australian Dollar and tax incentives (like accelerated write-off) for new investment.<\/p>\n<p>The lower exchange rate is important to rectify a serious case of <em>Dutch disease<\/em><sup>1<\/sup> from the resources industry. There are only three ways to achieve this:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Increase imports, which would be self-defeating, destroying jobs;<\/li>\n<li>Reduce exports; or<\/li>\n<li>Export capital, of which Australia has little.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>China is doing its best to help us with the second option, by restricting imports of a wide variety of Australian resources, but that has so far achieved little. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2021\/06\/why-pig-iron-scott-should-boycott-iron-ore-to-china\/#comment-4129660\">David Llewellyn-Smith<\/a> came up with an interesting alternative:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>If we accept that the CCP is the latest manifestation of the historical tendency to give rise to political evils intent on dominating the lives of freedom-loving humanity, then why don\u2019t we cut the flow of iron ore right now&#8230;&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>The results would be instant. The Chinese economy would be structurally shocked to its knees. 30% of its GDP is real estate-related. 60% of the iron ore that drives it is sourced in Australia. Roughly speaking that is 18% of Chinese GDP that would virtually collapse overnight. Vast tracts of industry would fall silent. An instant debt crisis would sweep the Chinese financial system as its bizarre daisy chain of corruption froze. Local governments likewise. Unemployment would skyrocket.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;..What we can say with confidence is that it would pre-occupy the CCP for many years and hobble it permanently. Its plans for regional domination would be set back decades if not be entirely over.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The problem is how to convince the old boys around the boardroom table at BHP that this would be in their interest as well as in the country&#8217;s interest.<\/p>\n<h4>Notes<\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li><em>Dutch disease<\/em> is a term coined by <em>The Economist<\/em> to describe the impact on the Netherlands&#8217; economy of a resources boom from discovery of large natural gas fields in 1959. The soaring exchange rate, from LNG exports, caused a sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector which struggled to compete, in export markets and against imports in the domestic market, at the higher exchange rate.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Leith van Onselen at Macrobusiness: Former ALP minister Craig Emerson has penned an article in The AFR calling on the Morrison Government to tackle Australia\u2019s declining productivity growth, which is central to boosting the nation\u2019s living standards: \u201cProductivity growth has contributed 95 per cent of the improvement in Australians\u2019 material living standards since 1901\u201d. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/16\/productivity-not-population-key-to-aussie-living-standards-macrobusiness\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Productivity not population key to Aussie living standards | Macrobusiness&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,40,3778,4813],"tags":[292,536,1147,1315,1904,2784],"class_list":["post-26334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aussie-dollar","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-international-trade","category-iron-ore","tag-australian-dollar","tag-business-investment","tag-dutch-disease","tag-exchange-rate","tag-iron-ore-exports","tag-productivity"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Productivity not population key to Aussie living standards | Macrobusiness - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Productivity not population key to Aussie living standards | Macrobusiness - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Leith van Onselen at Macrobusiness: Former ALP minister Craig Emerson has penned an article in The AFR calling on the Morrison Government to tackle Australia\u2019s declining productivity growth, which is central to boosting the nation\u2019s living standards: \u201cProductivity growth has contributed 95 per cent of the improvement in Australians\u2019 material living standards since 1901\u201d. &hellip; 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-6QK","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":60035,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/20\/asx-200-retreats-but-no-rba-cut-in-sight\/","url_meta":{"origin":26334,"position":0},"title":"ASX 200 retreats but no RBA cut in sight","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The weekly chart of the ASX 200 below shows a correction headed for a test of support at 8000. Respect would signal another test of 8500, continuing the primary uptrend. Breach is less likely but would offer a target of 7500. The Financials sub-index (XFJ) is testing support at 8500.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-20-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-20-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-20-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8315,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/08\/23\/the-road-not-taken-macrobusiness-com-au\/","url_meta":{"origin":26334,"position":1},"title":"The road not taken | Macrobusiness.com.au","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 23, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"By Houses & Holes at Macrobusiness.com.au So, with our Federal election mostly over, at least enough to get a good sense of where we\u2019re going, I think it\u2019s fair to conclude that we are not going to get out in front of the primary economic issues of our time. On\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"The Road Not Taken","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/paths06-300x155.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":14450,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/08\/gittins-forget-growth-aim-for-quality-of-life-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":26334,"position":2},"title":"Gittins: forget growth, aim for quality of life | Macrobusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 8, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"By Leith van Onselen Published with kind permission by Macrobusiness Fairfax\u2019s Ross Gittins has penned a good article questioning the economics profession\u2019s infatuation with growth and calling for policy makers to focus on quality and raising living standards instead: Most economists I know never doubt that a growing economy is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/55f7d-922926897.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/55f7d-922926897.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/55f7d-922926897.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/55f7d-922926897.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/55f7d-922926897.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7796,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/24\/australia-ford-is-the-tip-of-the-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":26334,"position":3},"title":"Australia: Ford is the tip of the crisis","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 24, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"By Houses and Holes -- cross-posted from Macrobusiness.com.au It\u2019s fascinating to watch the exit of Ford shake up commentary alliances and ideology. The loon pond that dominates Australian business media is out in force with soothing words that Australian car manufacturing needs to be let go gently into that good\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Productivity","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Capture67-300x124.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":48609,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/20\/will-the-rba-cut-first\/","url_meta":{"origin":26334,"position":4},"title":"Will the RBA cut first?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Recent articles in Macrobusiness and the ABC suggest that the RBA is likely to cut interest rates early, ahead of the Fed. Their conclusions are based on a February 16 research note by Gareth Aird at Commbank Divergence between the Australian and US consumer which provides some excellent charts: The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & RBA Cash Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8264,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/08\/12\/pollies-miss-the-point-on-infrastructure-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":26334,"position":5},"title":"Pollies miss the point on infrastructure | MacroBusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 12, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"I fully support Leith van Onselen's view on infrastructure investment: It is important to (as much as possible) take the decision-making for infrastructure investment away from the political process and instead place it in the hands of an independent authority tasked with maximising overall welfare and productivity at lowest cost.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26334"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26334\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26350,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26334\/revisions\/26350"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}