{"id":25679,"date":"2021-05-08T06:12:45","date_gmt":"2021-05-08T06:12:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=25679"},"modified":"2021-05-08T08:06:02","modified_gmt":"2021-05-08T08:06:02","slug":"beware-of-the-gdp-spike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/08\/beware-of-the-gdp-spike\/","title":{"rendered":"Beware of the GDP “spike”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hours worked jumped to a massive 13.5% (YoY) spike in April and GDP is expected to follow.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

Jim Stock’s Weekly Economic Index predicts a similar 12.2% (YoY) spike in Q2 GDP.<\/p>\n

\"Weekly<\/p>\n

Apologies for being the bearer of bad news but that spike is entirely due to base effects: the year-on-year change is measured from the pandemic low of April 2020.<\/p>\n

In real terms, hours worked are still 3.8% below their Feb 2020 level and GDP for Q2 2021 is expected to come in at close to the peak in Q4 of 2019.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hours worked jumped to a massive 13.5% (YoY) spike in April and GDP is expected to follow. Jim Stock’s Weekly Economic Index predicts a similar 12.2% (YoY) spike in Q2 GDP. Apologies for being the bearer of bad news but that spike is entirely due to base effects: the year-on-year change is measured from the … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Beware of the GDP “spike””<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,34],"tags":[4864,1723,2871],"class_list":["post-25679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-base-effects","tag-hours-worked","tag-real-gdp-growth"],"yoast_head":"\nBeware of the GDP "spike" - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Beware of the GDP "spike" - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hours worked jumped to a massive 13.5% (YoY) spike in April and GDP is expected to follow. Jim Stock’s Weekly Economic Index predicts a similar 12.2% (YoY) spike in Q2 GDP. 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This is an advance estimate, based on incomplete data and is subject to further revision. While the spurt in quarterly growth is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26651,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/05\/june-payroll-personal-income-and-investment\/","url_meta":{"origin":25679,"position":1},"title":"June payroll, personal income and investment","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 5, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"June payrolls show an impressive 850,000 gain over the past month but there is still a sizable shortfall of 6.7 million jobs when compared to the pre-pandemic peak of February 2020. 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Bank Credit declined by $320 billion over the past 9 months (Q2 '20\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23059,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/05\/sp-500-leaders-no-longer-leading\/","url_meta":{"origin":25679,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500: Leaders no longer leading","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 5, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Daily new cases of COVID-19 continue to spike upwards, warning of further shutdowns as medical facilities are overrun. Payrolls The latest labor report disappointed, especially as the November survey came before the latest round of layoffs after states imposed tighter restrictions. Payroll growth flattened, leaving total payroll down 5.99% compared\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20484,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/09\/sharp-fall-in-us-jobs-warns-of-economic-contraction-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":25679,"position":4},"title":"Sharp fall in US jobs warns of economic contraction ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Initial jobless claims filed in the US in the last 7 weeks now total 33.5 million. Total employment in April 2020 fell by 12.9% when compared to twelve months earlier. We use total hours worked (total payroll * average weekly hours) to estimate GDP growth. It does tend to overshoot\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":32570,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/09\/us-labor-market-recovering-but-beware-high-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":25679,"position":5},"title":"US labor market recovering but beware of high interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 and Q2 are weak, at annualized rates of 0.37% and 2.16% respectively. But our real GDP estimates, based on weekly hours worked, show an April recovery to 3.46% (annualized) after an erratic first quarter that averaged 2.24%. That is in line with 3.5% in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"GDPNow","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25679"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25679\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25694,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25679\/revisions\/25694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25679"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}