{"id":2542,"date":"2011-12-05T21:11:17","date_gmt":"2011-12-06T02:11:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=2542"},"modified":"2011-12-05T21:11:17","modified_gmt":"2011-12-06T02:11:17","slug":"the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/","title":{"rendered":"The Black Swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Complex systems that have artificially suppressed volatility tend to become extremely fragile, while at the same time exhibiting no visible risks. In fact, they tend to be too calm and exhibit minimal variability as silent risks accumulate beneath the surface. Although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policymakers is to stabilize the system by inhibiting fluctuations, the result tends to be the opposite. These artificially constrained systems become prone to \u201cBlack Swans\u201d \u2014 that is, they become extremely vulnerable to large-scale events that lie far from the statistical norm and were largely unpredictable to a given set of observers.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;.Preventing small forest fires can cause large forest fires to become devastating. This property is shared by all complex systems. In the realm of economics, price controls are designed to constrain volatility on the grounds that stable prices are a good thing. But although these controls might work in some rare situations, the long-term effect of any such system is an eventual and costly blowup whose cleanup costs can far exceed the benefits accrued.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;.Humans simultaneously inhabit two systems: the linear and the complex. The linear domain is characterized by its predictability and the low degree of interaction among its components which allows the use of mathematical methods that make forecasts reliable. In complex systems, there is an absence of visible causal links between the elements, masking a high degree of interdependence and extremely low predictability. Nonlinear elements are also present, such as those commonly known, and generally misunderstood, as &#8220;tipping points.&#8221; Imagine someone who keeps adding sand to a sand pile without any visible consequence, until suddenly the entire pile crumbles. It would be foolish to blame the collapse on the last grain of sand rather than the structure of the pile, but that is what people do consistently, and that is the policy error.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/ForeignAffairs.pdf\" title=\"The Black Swan of Cairo\" target=\"_blank\">The Black Swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous<\/a><br \/>\nBy Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth<\/p>\n<p>Colin Twiggs: ~ This is a must read for those who want a deeper understanding of why complex systems fail and why we are continually blind-sided by unforeseen political and economic events.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Complex systems that have artificially suppressed volatility tend to become extremely fragile, while at the same time exhibiting no visible risks. In fact, they tend to be too calm and exhibit minimal variability as silent risks accumulate beneath the surface. Although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policymakers is to stabilize the system &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Black Swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,49,22,29],"tags":[775,1844,2112,2405,2745,3617],"class_list":["post-2542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-economic-theory","category-other","category-the-big-picture","tag-complex-systems","tag-instability","tag-linear-forecasting","tag-nassim-nicholas-taleb","tag-price-controls","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Black Swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Black Swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Complex systems that have artificially suppressed volatility tend to become extremely fragile, while at the same time exhibiting no visible risks. In fact, they tend to be too calm and exhibit minimal variability as silent risks accumulate beneath the surface. Although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policymakers is to stabilize the system &hellip; Continue reading &quot;The Black Swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2011-12-06T02:11:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"The Black Swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-12-06T02:11:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/\"},\"wordCount\":376,\"commentCount\":3,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"complex systems\",\"instability\",\"linear forecasting\",\"Nassim Nicholas Taleb\",\"price controls\",\"volatility\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"Economic Theory\",\"Other\",\"The Big Picture\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/\",\"name\":\"The Black Swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2011-12-06T02:11:17+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/the-black-swan-of-cairo-how-suppressing-volatility-makes-the-world-less-predictable-and-more-dangerous\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Black Swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Politicians, governments and central banks all attempt to suppress volatility in order to make the economy more manageable (and re-election more predictable). Suppression of volatility may give the appearance of stability but leads to an accumulation of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield minus 10-Year Inflation Expectations","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-07-10y-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-07-10y-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-07-10y-inflation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1249,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/10\/stocks-volatility-is-worrisome-sign-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":2542,"position":1},"title":"Stocks&#8217; Volatility Is Worrisome Sign &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 10, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Many investors are entering this week with fresh hopes the worst is over, after last week's sudden stock-market rebound. But history suggests that in times of market turmoil, there is a risk that big, sudden gains like last week's will prove temporary respites before stocks fall again. Head-snapping volatility, both\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14952,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/14\/equities-could-see-a-setback-but-this-bull-market-isnt-over-bob-doll\/","url_meta":{"origin":2542,"position":2},"title":"Equities Could See a Setback, But This Bull Market Isn\u2019t Over | Bob Doll","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 14, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Sensible view from Bob Doll at Nuveen: ....Given evidence of stronger economic growth, we could see the Fed become slightly more aggressive about its rate policies, but probably not to the point that it would derail the equity bull market. On balance, we think the risks are skewed to the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1963,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/18\/the-anatomy-of-global-economic-uncertainty-mohamed-a-el-erian-project-syndicate\/","url_meta":{"origin":2542,"position":3},"title":"The Anatomy of Global Economic Uncertainty &#8211; Mohamed A. El-Erian &#8211; Project Syndicate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 18, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Mohamed A. El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, describes four key dynamics that will shape the future of the global economy: Many economies have built up excessive debt that is now causing market instability. They have three options for de-leveraging: default, like Greece; austerity, like the UK; or \u201cfinancial repression\u201d like the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20162,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/31\/lessons-from-the-panic-of-1907\/","url_meta":{"origin":2542,"position":4},"title":"Lessons from the Panic of 1907","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 31, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"I have read The Panic of 1907 (by Robert Bruner & Sean Carr) four or five times \u2014 I read it at every market crash. The crash occurred more than 100 years ago and is one of many banking crises that beset the United States in the 19th and early\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12843,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/10\/janet-yellen-on-financial-market-turmoil\/","url_meta":{"origin":2542,"position":5},"title":"Janet Yellen on financial market turmoil","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 10, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen before the House Financial Services Committee: \".....As is always the case, the economic outlook is uncertain. Foreign economic developments, in particular, pose risks to U.S. economic growth. 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