{"id":24642,"date":"2021-03-20T07:43:15","date_gmt":"2021-03-20T07:43:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=24642"},"modified":"2021-03-20T07:44:46","modified_gmt":"2021-03-20T07:44:46","slug":"nasdaq-tech-stocks-pause-for-breath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/20\/nasdaq-tech-stocks-pause-for-breath\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech heavyweights pause for breath"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good progress has been made combating the pandemic but daily COVID cases seem to be struggling to break through a floor between 50 and 60 thousand. The vaccine roll-out is ahead of schedule but people need to stop listening to idiots like Rand Paul &#8212; who went to the Senate gym while infected &#8212; and listen to the Chief Medical Adviser whose advice is to wear a mask.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-us-covid.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Daily US COVID Cases\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Stocks have paused after the recent run up in Treasury yields. When both stocks and bonds are being sold, there is nowhere to hide.<\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 is testing support at 12000. At this stage the correction looks mild, with declining Trend Index remaining above zero, but breach of 12000 would signal a test of the Sep 2020 low.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is performing better but Volatility troughs above 1.0% still warn of elevated risk.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-spx-vty.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 &amp; Twiggs Volatility 21-Day\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The big five tech stocks are a mixed bag. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) show strength. Microsft (MSFT) looks stable, while Mazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) are trending lower.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-big5.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, FB, MSFT\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>When leaders no longer lead<\/em> normally signals the final stage of a bull market. The chart below shows the Russell 2000 small caps ETF (IWM) clearly outperforming the large cap Nasdaq (QQQ) and S&amp;P 500 (IVV) indices with all the tech heavyweights.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-big3.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"IVV, IWM, QQQ\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-yieldcurve.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"@Schuldensuehner\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The steeper yield curve benefits banks, who profit from the wider net interest margin. Major banks have climbed 60% to 80% over the past six months, with Goldman Sachs (GS) leading and Bank of America (BAC) the laggard.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-banks.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Major Banks\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Consumer durables sectors are, again, a mixed bag. Household Goods (HG) is flat, Apparel Retail (RA) is climbing steadily, while Automobiles (AU) is down sharply &#8212; mainly because of Tesla (TSLA).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-cons-durables.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Consumer Durables\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Though light vehicle sales were down a million units in February.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-lightvehicles.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Light Vehicle Sales\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And heavy truck sales were down 4,000 units compared to January.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-heavytrucks.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Heavy Truck Sales\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Prospects for the tire industry are improving. Goodyear (GT) retraced to test its new support level after breaking out above its high from late 2019. Respect would confirm another advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-03-20-gt.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Goodyear Tyre Co. (GT)\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The recovery is going to be a long hard slog with frequent setbacks. Banks are doing nicely but stocks generally are over-priced and ripe for a major adjustment. There are signs that this is the final stage of the bull market and market risk is elevated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good progress has been made combating the pandemic but daily COVID cases seem to be struggling to break through a floor between 50 and 60 thousand. The vaccine roll-out is ahead of schedule but people need to stop listening to idiots like Rand Paul &#8212; who went to the Senate gym while infected &#8212; and &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/20\/nasdaq-tech-stocks-pause-for-breath\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Tech heavyweights pause for breath&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[107,189,4781,4075,4782,381,4783,4215,3971,4777,3851,4784,4778,4779,4780,1994,2109,3849,2401,3010,4300,3725],"class_list":["post-24642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-aapl","tag-amzn","tag-apparel-retail","tag-automobiles","tag-bac","tag-banks","tag-c","tag-covid-19","tag-fb","tag-goodyear-tyre","tag-googl","tag-gs","tag-gt","tag-heavy-trucks","tag-household-goods","tag-jpm","tag-light-vehicle-sales","tag-msft","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-sp-500","tag-wfc","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tech heavyweights pause for breath - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tech heavyweights pause for breath - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Good progress has been made combating the pandemic but daily COVID cases seem to be struggling to break through a floor between 50 and 60 thousand. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-6ps","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":624,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/04\/624\/","url_meta":{"origin":24642,"position":0},"title":"Dow runs out of buyers","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 4, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to reach resistance at 11900\/12000. Low volumes indicate a lack of interest from buyers rather than large numbers of sellers. Expect a test of support at 10600 to 10800. A strong surge in volume would indicate buying support, but failure is more likely and would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":86,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/08\/us-canada-target-levels\/","url_meta":{"origin":24642,"position":1},"title":"US &#038; Canada target levels","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 8, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke primary support at 11800 but encountered buying Friday around the former primary level of 11500. We may witness retracement to test resistance at 11800, but this is expected to be overwhelmed by sellers. Medium-term target for the down-swing is 10800*. * Target calculation: 11800\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":364,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/21\/nasdaq-breaks-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":24642,"position":2},"title":"Nasdaq breaks support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 21, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The Nasdaq 100 broke support at 2050, warning of a down-swing to 1900*. Follow-through below last week's low of 2040 would confirm. The latest peak on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, barely breaking the zero line, indicates strong medium-term selling pressure. * Target calculation: 2050 - ( 2200 - 2050 )\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1336,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/17\/nasdaq-hints-at-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":24642,"position":3},"title":"Nasdaq hints at recovery","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 17, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 11700. Breakout would warn of a primary advance, but the market is prone to false signals because of excessive volatility and it would be prudent to wait for confirmation. Respect of 11700, or a false break above 11700, would re-visit support at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1536,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/25\/dow-not-yet-out-of-the-woods\/","url_meta":{"origin":24642,"position":4},"title":"Dow not yet out of the woods","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 25, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average followed through on its breakout above the 10600-11700 trading range but expect some resistance at 12000. The index looks set for a decent rally after narrow consolidation below resistance at 11700. Target for the breakout is 12600*. * Target calculation: 11600 + ( 11600 - 10600\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1086,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/03\/dow-threatens-decline-to-10000\/","url_meta":{"origin":24642,"position":5},"title":"Dow threatens decline to 10000","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 3, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing the band of support between 10600 and 10800. An up-tick in volume indicates some buying support but this appears insufficient to withstand downward pressure. Failure of support at 10600 is likely and would signal a primary decline to 10000*. * Target calculation: 11000 -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24642"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24642\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24644,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24642\/revisions\/24644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}