{"id":24293,"date":"2021-02-27T03:54:13","date_gmt":"2021-02-27T03:54:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=24293"},"modified":"2021-02-27T08:17:58","modified_gmt":"2021-02-27T08:17:58","slug":"the-bond-market-revolt-and-its-likely-outcome","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/27\/the-bond-market-revolt-and-its-likely-outcome\/","title":{"rendered":"The bond market revolt"},"content":{"rendered":"

The rise in Treasury yields accelerated over the past week, with 10-year Treasuries closing at 1.54% on Thursday and 10-year TIPS at -0.60.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

A sharp fall in daily new COVID-19 cases has fueled optimism about a rapid re-opening of the US economy.<\/p>\n

\"USA:<\/p>\n

As well as fears of higher inflation.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

What the sell-off means<\/h2>\n

Investors are selling Treasuries at a faster rate than the Fed (and banks) are buying, out of fear of accelerating capital losses. Fixed coupons have been badly affected, with iShares 20Year+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) showing a loss of 13% over the past 6 months. But even inflation-protected bonds have lost value in anticipation of higher real interest rates, with PIMCO’s 15 Year+ TIPS Bond ETF (LTPZ) falling more than 6%.<\/p>\n

\"20<\/p>\n

The Fed response<\/h2>\n

The Fed is likely to respond by weighting purchases towards longer maturities. The 10-year Treasury yield has already started to anticipate this, falling to 1.39% by Friday’s close.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

Source: CNBC<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

The result is a 16 bps fall in the real 10-year yield, to -0.76% on Friday (1.39-2.15).<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Fed purchases are expected to suppress long-term Treasury yields over the next few months, with inflation breakeven rates continuing their upward trend, while real yields remain negative.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The rise in Treasury yields accelerated over the past week, with 10-year Treasuries closing at 1.54% on Thursday and 10-year TIPS at -0.60. A sharp fall in daily new COVID-19 cases has fueled optimism about a rapid re-opening of the US economy. As well as fears of higher inflation. What the sell-off means Investors are … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The bond market revolt”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,6,13,34],"tags":[4735,4238,69,4734,4215,1180,4262,2872,4344,4321],"class_list":["post-24293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-fixed-income","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-inflation-breakeven","tag-10-year-tips-yield","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-bond-market-revolt","tag-covid-19","tag-economic-recovery","tag-ltpz","tag-real-interest-rates","tag-taper-tantrum","tag-tlt"],"yoast_head":"\nThe bond market revolt - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The bond market revolt - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The rise in Treasury yields accelerated over the past week, with 10-year Treasuries closing at 1.54% on Thursday and 10-year TIPS at -0.60. 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The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a close of 1.54% on Thursday. As the economy reopens this spring and summer, and vaccines are distributed and the coronavirus retreats, many economists expect a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23662,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/13\/long-term-interest-rates-and-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":24293,"position":1},"title":"Long-term interest rates and inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 13, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF (TLT) breach of primary support at 155, as well as its long-term rising trendline, both warn that long-term interest rates are rising. 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And while recent developments are encouraging, we will need substantially\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-02-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-02-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-02-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26387,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/19\/fed-spurs-decline-in-lt-treasury-yields\/","url_meta":{"origin":24293,"position":3},"title":"Fed spurs decline in LT Treasury yields","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 19, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields are testing the lower channel of their large flag pattern over the past 3 months. Some pundits argue that this signals the bond market is no longer concerned about inflation. The Fed was scheduled to buy $18.9 billion of Treasuries this week ending June 18th, according to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":65393,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/23\/the-outlook-for-gold-stocks-and-bonds\/","url_meta":{"origin":24293,"position":4},"title":"The Outlook for Gold, Stocks and Bonds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 23, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The primary driver of financial markets is the 10-year Treasury yield. Rising inflation expectations drive up nominal Treasury yields. A secondary driver is liquidity, which is closely related to nominal interest rates. 10-year Treasury yields are the most important rate in the bond market, signaling demand for long-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-year TIPS Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-23-tips.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-23-tips.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-23-tips.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62357,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/10\/gold-flags-a-secular-bear-market-in-bonds\/","url_meta":{"origin":24293,"position":5},"title":"Gold flags a secular bear market in bonds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 10, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Government bonds sell at inflated prices as central banks suppress long-term yields. Long-term yields are in a cyclical downtrend, driven by speculators. However, long-term bonds are in a secular bear market fueled by fiscal instability and a rising threat of inflation. International capital flows will also dry up\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Combined Assets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-cb-assets.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-cb-assets.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-cb-assets.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24293","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24293"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24293\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24309,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24293\/revisions\/24309"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}