{"id":24293,"date":"2021-02-27T03:54:13","date_gmt":"2021-02-27T03:54:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=24293"},"modified":"2021-02-27T08:17:58","modified_gmt":"2021-02-27T08:17:58","slug":"the-bond-market-revolt-and-its-likely-outcome","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/27\/the-bond-market-revolt-and-its-likely-outcome\/","title":{"rendered":"The bond market revolt"},"content":{"rendered":"

The rise in Treasury yields accelerated over the past week, with 10-year Treasuries closing at 1.54% on Thursday and 10-year TIPS at -0.60.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

A sharp fall in daily new COVID-19 cases has fueled optimism about a rapid re-opening of the US economy.<\/p>\n

\"USA:<\/p>\n

As well as fears of higher inflation.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

What the sell-off means<\/h2>\n

Investors are selling Treasuries at a faster rate than the Fed (and banks) are buying, out of fear of accelerating capital losses. Fixed coupons have been badly affected, with iShares 20Year+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) showing a loss of 13% over the past 6 months. But even inflation-protected bonds have lost value in anticipation of higher real interest rates, with PIMCO’s 15 Year+ TIPS Bond ETF (LTPZ) falling more than 6%.<\/p>\n

\"20<\/p>\n

The Fed response<\/h2>\n

The Fed is likely to respond by weighting purchases towards longer maturities. The 10-year Treasury yield has already started to anticipate this, falling to 1.39% by Friday’s close.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

Source: CNBC<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

The result is a 16 bps fall in the real 10-year yield, to -0.76% on Friday (1.39-2.15).<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Fed purchases are expected to suppress long-term Treasury yields over the next few months, with inflation breakeven rates continuing their upward trend, while real yields remain negative.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The rise in Treasury yields accelerated over the past week, with 10-year Treasuries closing at 1.54% on Thursday and 10-year TIPS at -0.60. A sharp fall in daily new COVID-19 cases has fueled optimism about a rapid re-opening of the US economy. As well as fears of higher inflation. What the sell-off means Investors are … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The bond market revolt”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,6,13,34],"tags":[4735,4238,69,4734,4215,1180,4262,2872,4344,4321],"class_list":["post-24293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-fixed-income","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-inflation-breakeven","tag-10-year-tips-yield","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-bond-market-revolt","tag-covid-19","tag-economic-recovery","tag-ltpz","tag-real-interest-rates","tag-taper-tantrum","tag-tlt"],"yoast_head":"\nThe bond market revolt - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The bond market revolt - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The rise in Treasury yields accelerated over the past week, with 10-year Treasuries closing at 1.54% on Thursday and 10-year TIPS at -0.60. 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The heavily weighted Shelter component (32.5% of total CPI) is also\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-10-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-10-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-10-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-10-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20013,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/16\/gold-and-treasuries-bull-or-bear\/","url_meta":{"origin":24293,"position":3},"title":"Gold and Treasuries: Bull or Bear?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 16, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold and Treasuries normally behave contra-cyclically to equities, falling when stocks rise and rising when they fall. But something unusual has happened in the past few weeks: all three are falling. Gold is falling as the TIPS 10-year yield rallied from its recent low at -0.57% to close at -0.04%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25280,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/15\/tlt-jumping-the-gun\/","url_meta":{"origin":24293,"position":4},"title":"TLT – jumping the gun?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 15, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Good question from International Growth subscriber Sascha: After losing 25%, TLT seems to be bottoming \u2014 time to get in (again) or is this jumping the gun? Our reply: We think inflation is going to rise, driving up long-term Treasury yields, so TLT should be in a LT down-trend. Not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26249,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/10\/treasury-yields-fall-ahead-of-may-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":24293,"position":5},"title":"Treasury yields fall ahead of May CPI","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 10, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields broke support at 1.50, warning of a correction. The breach comes ahead of the May CPI release later today, anticipating weaker inflation data after lackluster payroll growth reported last week. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate eased to 2.32%, from recent highs above 2.50%. But Pippa Malmgren points\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-06-10-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24293","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24293"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24293\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24309,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24293\/revisions\/24309"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}