{"id":2429,"date":"2011-11-28T21:33:11","date_gmt":"2011-11-29T02:33:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=2429"},"modified":"2011-11-28T21:33:11","modified_gmt":"2011-11-29T02:33:11","slug":"canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/28\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\/","title":{"rendered":"Canberra is fighting the last war &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As we know, the Western world has passed an historic moment when credit driven growth is no longer viable. We are in the early years of a decades long deleveraging. And, as we know from the sectoral balances of macroeconomics, an economy can only grow through the expansion of the external sector or by expanding credit in either the government or private sectors. Is it useful, therefore, to be comparing Treasury\u2019s triumphant victory over the seventies bogies of wage breakouts and inflation via a tradable goods destroying currency appreciation when the world is now set on a course in which the ONLY economic growth that has lasting value in this new milieu is that driven by expansion in the external sector?<\/p>\n<p>For me the answer is absolutely not.<\/p>\n<p>Treasury is busy fighting the last war. The new war is for export revenues to drive investment and growth to offset the enormous debt stocks that exist in the public and private sectors of Western economies, including Australia. That\u2019s why destroying parts of your tradable goods sector in order to make room for other tradable goods is about as sensible as cutting off a leg so that you\u2019ve lost weight. Sure you have, but now you just gonna sit there and eat.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2011\/11\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war\/?utm_source=Media+List&amp;utm_campaign=31ec76af6b-RSS_DAILY_MAILCHIMP_CAMPAIGN&amp;utm_medium=email\">Canberra is fighting the last war &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As we know, the Western world has passed an historic moment when credit driven growth is no longer viable. We are in the early years of a decades long deleveraging. And, as we know from the sectoral balances of macroeconomics, an economy can only grow through the expansion of the external sector or by expanding &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/28\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Canberra is fighting the last war &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[290,912,966,993,1147,2934],"class_list":["post-2429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","tag-australia","tag-currency-appreciation","tag-debt-growth","tag-deleveraging","tag-dutch-disease","tag-resources-boom"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canberra is fighting the last war - macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Canberra is fighting the last war - macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As we know, the Western world has passed an historic moment when credit driven growth is no longer viable. We are in the early years of a decades long deleveraging. And, as we know from the sectoral balances of macroeconomics, an economy can only grow through the expansion of the external sector or by expanding &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Canberra is fighting the last war &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/28\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2011-11-29T02:33:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/11\\\/28\\\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/11\\\/28\\\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Canberra is fighting the last war &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-11-29T02:33:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/11\\\/28\\\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":237,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Australia\",\"currency appreciation\",\"debt growth\",\"deleveraging\",\"Dutch disease\",\"resources boom\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/11\\\/28\\\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/11\\\/28\\\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/11\\\/28\\\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\\\/\",\"name\":\"Canberra is fighting the last war - macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2011-11-29T02:33:11+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/11\\\/28\\\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/11\\\/28\\\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/11\\\/28\\\/canberra-is-fighting-the-last-war-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Canberra is fighting the last war &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Despite record low 10-year bond yields..... Credit growth is subdued and likely to remain so for some time. After a massive credit bubble lasting more than a decade. Households are saving close to 10 percent of Disposable Income in anticipation of a contraction.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":43889,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/06\/chinas-debt-and-implications-for-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":2429,"position":1},"title":"China&#8217;s debt and implications for Australia","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"China remains Australia's biggest export market despite a rapid fall in exports during the COVID pandemic -- in retaliation for Morrison government calls for an inquiry into the cause of the outbreak. Value of LNG exports to Japan have surged, after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but China remains our\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian Exports by Country","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-05-aus-exports-country.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2664,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/16\/mark-carney-growth-in-the-age-of-deleveraging\/","url_meta":{"origin":2429,"position":2},"title":"Mark Carney: Growth in the age of deleveraging","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 16, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Today, American aggregate non-financial debt is at levels similar to those last seen in the midst of the Great Depression. At 250 per cent of GDP, that debt burden is equivalent to almost US$120,000 for every American (Chart 1). .....backsliding on financial reform is not a solution to current problems.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5317,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/21\/milton-friedmans-advice\/","url_meta":{"origin":2429,"position":3},"title":"Milton Friedman&#039;s Advice","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 21, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"In 1997 Milton Friedman commented on Bank of Japan policy following Japan's deflationary spiral of the early 1990s: Defenders of the Bank of Japan will say, \u201cHow? The bank has already cut its discount rate to 0.5 percent. What more can it do to increase the quantity of money?\u201d The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14902,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/06\/can-australia-dodge-the-great-deleveraging-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":2429,"position":4},"title":"Can Australia dodge the great deleveraging? | MacroBusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 6, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting chart from UBS (via Macrobusiness). Movement between 2002 and 2016 for a number of Developed and Emerging Market (DM and EM) countries in the ratio of bank credit to GDP and bank debt to credit. The good guys are in the top left corner and the bad guys bottom\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27803,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/09\/09\/low-interest-rates-and-the-debt-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":2429,"position":5},"title":"Low interest rates and the debt trap","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 9, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Since 1980, debt levels have more than doubled, from 1.4 times GDP to more than 2.8 in Q1 this year. The rise has been facilitated (and encouraged) by a sharp fall in long-term interest rates, with 10-year Treasury yields falling from a peak of close to 16% in September 1981\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2429","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2429"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2429\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2429"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2429"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2429"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}